SERBIA: EUR/SCE DAS JONES, VISIT TO BELGRADE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001206

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: EUR/SCE DAS JONES, VISIT TO BELGRADE
(NOVEMBER 16-17)

Classified By: Bradford Bell, Acting Political Chief; reasons 1.4 (b, d
).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Serbian government leaders told Deputy Assistant
Secretary Stuart Jones during his visit to Belgrade that
Serbia is looking to move beyond EULEX deployment in Kosovo
and to engage in the region, but that Kosovo would remain a
difficult issue. In separate meetings on November 17 with
Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic, Deputy Prime Minister Ivica
Dacic, Deputy Prime Minister Mladen Dinkic, and Ministry of
Defense State Secretary Dusan Spasojevic, Jones called for a
deeper and broader relationship geared toward Serbia's
Euro-Atlantic integration. All acknowledged that 2009 would
be a difficult year economically for Serbia and voiced
concern on whether the government could deliver on its
pro-European agenda. Despite well-rehearsed differences over
Kosovo, DAS Jones' visit was well-received within the
government as it looks to broaden our bilateral engagement.
End Summary.

Kosovo: Getting Beyond EULEX
--------------


2. (C) Serbia wants to remove Kosovo from the domestic and
international agenda but can only do so after a deal on EULEX
(EU Rule of Law Mission) is "legalized" through the UN
Security Council, Jeremic told DAS Jones. Jeremic said that
his government was anxious to "de-Kosovize Serbian politics"
but could offer no more flexibility on EULEX talks. Jeremic
told Jones that Serbia had given all it could on EULEX, in
spite of strong domestic political opposition. Serbia will
"swallow a brick" with EULEX's deployment, Jeremic said, but
would do so in order to move it off the agenda so that Serbia
could focus on EU integration. Jeremic was worried, however,
that without a final deal soon, Serbia would be "caught
offsides" and without a backup strategy on Kosovo. Jones and
Ambassador Munter cautioned Jeremic that Serbia would be held
responsible for ensuring a peaceful atmosphere in Northern
Kosovo throughout the EULEX deployment ) not just after the
initial deployment.


3. (C) Kosovo would continue to be a thorn if it comes at
the cost of Serbia's integration with Europe, government
leaders told Jones. The more Serbia is integrated into
regional structures, the more relaxed Serbia would become on
Kosovo, Spasojevic said, citing the Southeast European
Defense Ministerial (SEDM) as a possible example. Leaders
asked for advanced coordination on sensitive Kosovo issues.
Spasojevic agreed with Jones that ultimately there must be a
direct channel for communication between Belgrade and
Pristina in order to prevent violence and further
misunderstanding.

Financial Crisis Will Hurt
--------------


4. (C) Serbia's leaders were also aware of the costs of the
looming economic downturn. The global financial crisis would
hinder Serbia's economic growth in 2009, Dinkic told Jones.
Given the financial challenges in the U.S. and the transition
in administration, Dinkic foresaw no new significant U.S.
investment in Serbia in the near term. To get through the
crisis, Dinkic said that Serbia would borrow as much as
possible from International Financial Institutions to finance
necessary infrastructure projects, would aggressively attract
investors particularly in the automobile and high-tech
sectors, and would cut government bureaucracy and costs.
Jeremic voiced concern that with the financial crisis the EU
could move slower on Serbia's integration. Being blocked by
the EU, coupled with an economic downturn and the lack of new
foreign direct investment, could be "a recipe for trouble,"
Jeremic said, foreshadowing a difficult domestic political
situation if the ruling coalition could not deliver.

Socialists Assure Government is Stable
--------------


5. (C) In contrast, Dacic was less pessimistic, and
confidently said that the government's current ruling
coalition was stable. Speaking in his capacity as First
Deputy Prime Minister and head of the Socialist Party of
Serbia (SPS),Dacic assured DAS Jones that the government was
focused on long-term policy. He said the SPS was considering
entering into a long-term coalition agreement with President
Boris Tadic's Democratic Party (DS) in order to strengthen
his party.

BELGRADE 00001206 002 OF 002



Regional Cooperation and Growing Rhetoric with Croatia
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6. (C) Serbia needed to engage with its neighbors,
particularly on security and rule of law issues, but leaders
noted worsening relations with Croatia. Dacic called for
increased regional cooperation on transnational issues such
as transport, customs, infrastructure and organized crime,
noting his cooperation with the Croatian government on
investigating the assassination of Croatian newspaper owner
Pukanic. Spasojevic said mil-mil relations with Croatia were
improving but noted a strained political relationship.
Croatia fears Serbia as a regional leader that will leave
Croatia in "the back seat," Spasojevic said. Croatia is
"incapable of helping us," Jeremic said, noting growing
tensions between the neighbors on their pending International
Court of Justice case stemming from mutual charges of
genocide in the 1990's (septel). The FM stated that the
Croatian ICJ case would require Serbia to counter-sue, also
on genocide grounds. Jeremic insisted that the Serb case
against Croatia for ethnic cleansing is stronger than the
Croatian case. He acknowledged that the Bosnia and
Herzegovina,s case against Serbia was powerful, but the
Croatian case was less clear-cut. Jeremic was more confident
on Bosnia, stating "as long as the region is on a European
trajectory, Bosnia will be stable." Jones commended
President Tadic,s constructive remarks on BiH the previous
week but warned that Republika Srbska,s bad behaviour could
complicate Serbia,s European perspective. "Don,t
underestimate (RS PM) Dodik's capacity to miscalculate," he
urged. Jeremic re-assured that Tadic and Dodik had a good
relationship and the message to Dodik was clear.

Broadening the Bilateral Relationship
--------------


7. (C) Interlocutors were interested in deepening the
bilateral relationship. Dinkic said that he would support a
renewed effort to negotiate a Bilateral Investment Treaty
with the United States. If it would simplify and speed the
process, Dinkic was amenable to negotiating such a treaty in
a regional context, to include Macedonia and Montenegro.
Spasojevic said he would encourage further mil-mil
cooperation through the State Partnership Program with Ohio.
Dacic thanked Jones for U.S. support in police and judicial
reform and asked that we find ways to enhance cooperation.

The Public Message
--------------


8. (SBU) All major Belgrade media reported on DAS Jones,
visit. In his interview to Beta news agency, which was
reprinted by major Serbian dailies, Jones stressed that he
arrived on his first visit to Belgrade with the goals of
"encouraging a partnership between the U.S. and Serbia and
improving cooperation, for which there are numerous
possibilities." Though coverage was straightforward, media
focused on DAS Jones' statement to Beta that "The UN Security
Council's (UNSC) Presidential Statement is not a precondition
for the deployment of the EULEX mission in Kosovo." Both the
Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Interior issued press
releases on their meetings with Jones, highlighting the
discussion on the political and security situation in the
region and our bilateral cooperation on issues such as police
and security.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Getting through the pending EULEX deployment and the
global economic downturn will burn some of the political
capital of the current coalition government, but despite
Jeremic's cautions, Serbia's pro-European government is
stable and secure and will weather the strain. DAS Jones'
timely visit showed Serbia that the United States is prepared
and willing to deepen our relationship, even during these
difficult times. It is a message that we will continuously
repeat and demonstrate in the months to come.


10. (U) Deputy Assistant Secretary Jones has cleared on this
cable. End Comment.


MUNTER