THE SANDZAK: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS A "REHEARSAL" FOR LOCAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000104

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SR KV BK
SUBJECT: THE SANDZAK: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS A "REHEARSAL" FOR LOCAL
ELECTIONS

REF: 07 BELGRADE 1627

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) For leaders of Southwestern Serbia's predominantly Muslim
Sandzak region, the results of the presidential election suggest
that May's local elections will bring a new, more democratic local
government. On January 20, local voters largely ignored Novi Pazar
Mayor Suleman Ugljanin's endorsement of New Serbia's presidential
candidate Velimir Ilic. Opposition leaders now believe these same
voters may turn away from Ugljanin, himself, in the local elections.
Promoting a false mufti in order to incite a dispute between two
local muslim religious leaders may also have weakened Ugljanin's
authority. The public perceives Ugljanin as responsible for the
rampant corruption and unrest in the Sandzak. Regional leaders
continue to ask for international assistance in preparing for the
May elections and in their efforts to strengthen media and civil
society. End Summary

Ugljanin's Supporters Ignore Endorsement of Ilic;
Sandzak Votes for Tadic
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2. (SBU) During a January 19-20 visit to the Sandzak, opposition
leaders told emboffs that the first round of presidential elections
were a "rehearsal" for May local elections. Despite Ugljanin's
endorsement of Velimir Ilic, New Serbia party (NS) presidential
candidate, Ilic finished third in the Sandzak region, behind Boris
Tadic of the Democratic Party (DS) and Tomislav Nikolic (SRS). Ilic
also finished third nationally. Local opposition leaders consider
Ugljanin's inability to deliver more votes for his candidate of
choice as an indication that Ugljanin's strength may be weakening
and that he and his Party of Democratic Action(SDA) might lose local
elections in May. Sandzak Democratic Party (SDP) spokesperson
Mirsad Jusufovic told emboffs that Ugljanin's support for Ilic was a
"big mistake," since most SDA supporters would vote for either Boris
Tadic, whom the SDP, a DS coalition partner, had endorsed, or
Cedomir Jovanovic of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP),who was
becoming increasingly popular among youth in the predominantly
Muslim areas. Jusufovic conceded that Ugljanin's endorsement of
Ilic was very weak, half hearted, and poorly done.


3. (SBU) In a January 20 meeting, Ugljanin's Chief of Staff, Fikret
Niksic, told emboff that Ilic had done a lot for Novi Pazar ("such
as paving new roads") and so it "made sense" for Ugljanin to endorse
the NS candidate in the first round of elections. He left open the
possibility that Ugljanin would throw his support behind Tadic for
the second round.

Opposition and SDA Focused on Local Elections
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4. (SBU) Representatives of Novi Pazar's new "Civic Initiative for
Change" told emboffs that they were focused on the local elections.
The group, comprised of the DS, SDP, Green Party, Sandzak
Alternative and Sandzak List, were combining efforts to encourage
citizen participation and fair elections in the local elections.
Representatives said they were responding to growing corruption on
the local level, a concern that emboffs heard in all their meetings.
Niksic said the SDA was also choosing to focus on upcoming local
elections. Niksic tried to discredit Ugljanin's main opponents,
calling SDP leader Rasim Ljajic a "drug runner" and accusing Mufti
Muamer Zukorlic of supporting violent extremists. Despite these
accusations, he said Ugljanin would consider cooperating with the
SDP if the SDP placed strongly in the May elections.

LDP Looking to Go It Alone in May
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5. (SBU) Local leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party told emboffs
they were pleased with the LDP's relatively strong first-round
performance in the Sandzak, where LDP's candidate Cedomir Jovanovic
placed fourth, surpassing his fifth-place nationwide performance.
The LDP attracted about 15% of the vote in Sandzak (about 18,000
votes),compared to its 5.5% vote nationwide. As a result of this
strong regional performance, local LDP leader Mehmed Zejnelagic told
emboffs the LDP would run alone in local elections and would only
consider coalitions with other democratic parties after the May
election. Sandzak has one of the youngest populations in Serbia and
the LDP specifically targeted this demographic in the presidential
elections. Local NGO leaders told emboffs that the LDP was also
able to attract votes from those who were disillusioned with both
the SDA and SDP and those who were tired of politics as usual (read,
Ugljanin) in the Sandzak.

Mufti Update: Zukorlic Confident, Zilkic Conciliatory
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6. (SBU) Mufti Muamir Zukorlic continues to reconsolidate his
position in the region after last year's flare-up over Ugljanin's

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attempt to install a false mufti, loyal to him. (reftel A).
Zukorlic told emboff on January 19 that the security situation had
improved and that the situation within the Islamic community was
better, since "the attempt of the rebel (referring to Adem Zilkic)
did not succeed." Zilkic, in contrast, told emboff that the
security situation had worsened. Both Zukorlic and Zilkic withheld
judgment on the recent January 19 appointment of a new chief of
police, Dragan Terzic, saying that they would judge Terzic by his
actions and his leadership, but expressed concern about a Serb
occupying this position in a majority Muslim community. Zukorlic
said he would support the new chief if "he is a good man, who does
the right things." Both Zukorlic and Zilkic said the Terzic would
need to tackle growing corruption in the region.


7. (SBU) Zilkic expressed his concern about Zukorlic's growing
political influence against Ugljanin. Zilkic warned that the
upcoming local elections could result in a growing fusion of
religious and political control in Novi Pazar, something he said he
would strongly oppose. Striking a more conciliatory tone, Zilkic
said he wanted to bring Ugljanin and Ljaic together in order to
foster peaceful cooperation. Zilkic said he had already "done 70%
of the work" to make this happen, but said he now needed U.S. and
Turkish help to bring the two sides together to talk. (He suggested
Turkey because several thousand Bosniaks, Slavic Muslims, live in
Turkey.)

Parties and NGOs Seeking International Assistance
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8. (SBU) Political party and local NGO leaders requested
international assistance in preparing for the May elections and for
developing the region's civil society. Jusofovic requested
assistance in training political party election observers and
election board poll members in the lead up to the May elections. In
addition, the local representative of the domestic polling
organization CeSID asked for support for local media, which he said
was either controlled or intimidated by Ugljanin. He said the media
needed better training and resources in order for it to have an
independent voice.

Comment
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9. (SBU) Ilic's poor performance in the Sandzak on election day,
after Ugljanin's weak endorsement, gave additional momentum to a
fractured local opposition that is trying to stay united in the lead
up to local elections on May 11. More than the current presidential
elections, local elections will determine whether the citizens of
Sandzak region have the will and strength to appropriately address
their legitimate concerns regarding security and corruption.
Ugljanin continues to enjoy the role of one of Serbia's most corrupt
and heavy-handed local leaders. Having democratic forces prevail in
Sandzak alone, during the upcoming municipal elections, would be a
triumph for democracy and good governance. End Comment.

MUNTER