LEBANON: JUMBLATT REPORTS SAUDIS FOCUSED ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000963

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC SA IS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: JUMBLATT REPORTS SAUDIS FOCUSED ON
ELECTIONS, RESTRUCTURING THEIR SUPPORT

REF: BEIRUT 865

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Recounting his recent trip to Saudi Arabia, Druze
leader Walid Jumblatt told the Charge on July 2 that the
Saudis are focused on restructuring Saad Hariri's Future
Movement and on bolstering the Sunnis in anticipation of the
2009 parliamentary elections. Jumblatt expressed his concern
that lingering tensions between the Druze and Hizballah in
the Chouf could escalate out of control. Preparing to
welcome home Druze prisoner Samir Qantar from Israel,
Jumblatt noted his displeasure at how Hizballah and Israel
excluded the GOL from the negotiations. Meanwhile, Hizballah
SYG Hassan Nasrallah, in a July 2 televised speech, reported
on the prisoners exchange with Israel and expressed its
readiness to restart the National Dialogue. End summary.

SAUDIS INTERESTED IN
RESTRUCTURING FUTURE
MOVEMENT, ELECTIONS
--------------


2. (C) On July 2, the Charge, accompanied by DCM and PolOff,
met with Druze leader Walid Jumblatt at his home in
Clemenceau. Recounting his visit the previous month to Saudi
Arabia where he met with Saudi King Abdullah, Foreign
Minister Saud al Faisal, Prince Bandar, and Prince Mukrin,
Jumblatt said the Saudis are focused on restructuring Saad
Hariri's Future Movement and strengthening the Sunnis in
anticipation of the 2009 parliamentary elections.


3. (C) Jumblatt relayed that the Saudis are disappointed that
the large amount of money they gave to Saad last year did not
produce tangible results. They want to push Saad, with whom
they addressed this same issues during Saad's visit, to
pursue a different strategy this year if they are to continue
supporting him.


4. (C) Adding that he discussed land purchases in Lebanon
with the Saudis, Jumblatt revealed that he had started buying
land, which was slated to be purchased by the Shia, in a
Druze area near Tarik Jdedieh in Beirut. Jumblatt said he is
also considering buying land in predominately-Christian
Kessarwan.

CONTINUED TENSION BETWEEN
DRUZE AND HIZBALLAH IN CHOUF
--------------


5. (C) Relaying that there has been a deep suspicion since
the May clashes between the Druze and Hizballah in
predominately-Druze Aley and Shweifat, Jumblatt said each
side suspects the other of fortifying their weapon caches.
It could easily spiral out of control, Jumblatt feared, and
end up destroying Druze villages. Acknowledging that he does
not control all of the Druze, he said that some are being
supported and recruited by Hizballah, including Druze sheikhs.

PREPARING TO WELCOME HOME
DRUZE PRISONER FROM ISRAEL
--------------


6. (C) As Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah was making a
televised speech on the imminent prisoner exchange with
Israel, Jumblatt told us he was busy preparing for the
arrival of Samir Qantar, who is Druze. Jumblatt, admitting
that he was unenthused about the exchange given that no one
in the government was consulted, said he would not attend
Hizballah's welcoming celebration in the south, but was
organizing something in conjunction with rival Druze leader
Talal Arslan in Qantar's home village of Abey.

FOCUSING ON THE ELECTIONS
--------------


7. (C) Listing off the electoral districts and their

BEIRUT 00000963 002 OF 002


accompanying deputy seats, Jumblatt was tactically assessing
where March 14 could be expected to prevail. He noted that
the Metn district, with the Armenian votes, is an unknown
variable. Recognizing his pessimistic outlook, Jumblatt
concluded that the Armenian Tashnaq would not vote for March

14.


8. (C) Repeating what caretaker Social Affairs Minister Nayla
Mouawad told us (reftel),Jumblatt believes it is worth the
risk to ally with Sunni group Jamaa Islamiyah because it
could mean support for March 14 in Sidon and in the north.

CABINET FORMATION
STILL STALLED
--------------


9. (C) Jumblatt said he is still hoping the opposition will
accept his proposal to appoint Talal Arslan a minister of
state without a portfolio in order for Jumblatt to appoint a
Shia. Preferring to appoint independent Shia Ibrahim
Shamseddine, Jumblatt believes Hizballa and Amal want MP
Ghazi Youssef instead. Jumblat said Hizballah and Amal are
delaying the cabine formation because they do not approve of
Shamseddine's appointment.


10. (C) He added that March 14 continues to insist on
appointing the Justice Minister, out of concern for
supporting the Special Tribunal. He revealed that he met UN
SYG Ban Ki Moon in Jeddah, who inquired about why Lebanon
cannot move past its differences. Jumblatt said he expressed
his concern about the survivability of the Tribunal, to which
Moon reportedly responded that he is depressed by the
Tribunal.

NASRALLAH: ON PRISONERS,
NATIONAL DIALOGUE
--------------


11. (C) Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah, in a speech aired
while the Charge met with Jumblatt, reported on the status of
the prisoners exchange with Israel. Speaking in a
conciliatory tone, he said that five living prisoners would
return to Lebanon sometime around July 15, and that, in
addition, 200 Arab bodies, retained by Israel since 1978,
would be returned.


12. (C) Nasrallah expressed Hizballah's readiness to restart
the National Dialogue, adding that the organization is not
attached to its weapons. He repeated Hizballah's stance that
putting Sheba'a Farms under the guardianship of the UN is not
considered a "liberation" of the territory. Nasrallah
criticized the UK for designating Hizballah's military wing a
"terrorist organization" earlier the same day, while stating
his indifference to the decision. (Note: Nasrallah did not
address cabinet or other internal Lebanese issues. End note.)

COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) Nasrallah's speech likely will be perceived very
positively because of the moderate tone and the "success" of
securing the prisoners' release. Despite his repeated call
to supporters to refrain from the usual celebratory shooting,
many shots were heard for an extended time frame from
Jumblatt's outdor patio. End comment.
SISON