LEBANON: CABINET FORMATION PROGRESSING; AOUN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000884

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: CABINET FORMATION PROGRESSING; AOUN
"SOFTENING" HIS POSITION ON KEY MINISTRIES

REF: A. BEIRUT 733

B. BEIRUT 849

C. BEIRUT 822

D. BEIRUT 799

E. BEIRUT 838

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) On day 16 of cabinet consultations, political leaders
continue their horsetrading over ministerial seats and most
contacts from both the March 14 majority and the March 8/Aoun
opposition tell us they are hopeful that the cabinet will be
formed relatively quickly. PM-designate Fouad Siniora
submitted a draft cabinet proposal on June 8 that presents
two sets of portfolios from which the opposition could
choose. In Siniora's formulation, President Michel Sleiman
will appoint candidates of his choosing for the Interior and
Defense Ministries, and the opposition and majority will each
select one minister for the other two sovereign ministries,
Finance and Foreign Affairs.


2. (C) Many of our contacts from March 14 accuse Free
Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun of obstructing the
process with his demand for a sovereign ministry for his
party, but as of June 12 Aoun appears to be softening his
position. Competition within the majority for its three
Maronite seats has been an issue but seems to be decreasing,
as Kataeb (Phalange) leader Amine Gemayel and Lebanese Forces
leader Samir Geagea have purportedly relinquished their
personal aspirations for a seat. Meanwhile, Hizballah MPs
have been prolific in their public endorsement for forming a
cabinet as soon as possible and implementing the Doha
agreement. End summary.

NO RUSH TO FORM
CABINET THIS WEEK
--------------


3. (C) On day 16 of consultations to form the next cabinet,
the alarm bell has not yet bee sounded; as Parliament
Speaker Nabih Berri's advsor Ali Hamdan noted to us, it took
nearly threeweeks to form the previous cabinet in 2005.
Berri's brother, Mahmoud Berri (mentioned as possible
Minister of Foreign Affairs, though he told us June 12 he is
not interested in a cabinet position) speculated that neither
the majority nor Hizballah are anxious to form a cabinet.
According to Mahmoud Berri, the majority is satisfied that a
president has been elected and its caretaker ministers still
control the key ministries, while Hizballah is interested in
delaying formation to stave off a discussion on its arms,
stipulated in the Doha agreement (Ref A). Mahmoud personally
believes the regional conditions are not ripe for a cabinet
formation and hopes, at best, to have "a quiet summer."


4. (C) Druze leader Walid Jumblatt is more concerned about
the timing, telling the Charge on June 11, "The longer it
takes, the worse the impression is." He also expressed his
concern that a drawn-out process could foretell problems in
drafting the eventual ministerial statement.


5. (C) PM-designate Fouad Siniora's advisor, Mohammed Chatah,
thought it unlikely that a cabinet would be formed by June 16
(three weeks after the election of President Sleiman).
Caretaker Justice Minister Charles Rizk and Free Patriotic
Movement (FPM) MP Walid Khoury separately told the Charge
they expected the process to continue for some time.
However, some believe the June 14 visit of the nephew Qatari
PM and FM Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim portends an imminent
decision on cabinet formation. (Note: The nephew will be in
Beirut to attend the wedding of Speaker Berri's daughter;
however, rumors have it that he is bringing money to buy off
Aoun. End note.)

SINIORA'S DRAFT CABINET
--------------


6. (C) According to Siniora's draft cabinet submitted to

BEIRUT 00000884 002 OF 003


President Michel Sleiman and Speaker Berri on June 8,
President Sleiman would appoint three ministers (two
"sovereign" and one minister of state without a portfolio);
the opposition would appoint eight ministers (including one
sovereign and three ministers of state); and the majority
would appoint 12 ministers (including one sovereign and four
ministers of state). (Note: The four sovereign ministries
are Interior, Defense, Finance, and Foreign Affairs, with
Justice sometimes considered a close fifth. End note.) Of
the 30 ministers planned for the next cabinet, seven of them
will not have a portfolio. Siniora's draft is in accordance
with the Doha agreement stipulating for a 16-3-11 division
for the majority, president, and opposition.


7. (C) Siniora presented two possible lists of portfolios for
the opposition. The first includes Finance, Public Works,
Education, Displaced, Tourism, Environment, Sports and Youth,
and Culture. The second includes Foreign Affairs, Energy,
Justice, Economy, Industry, Agriculture, Social Affairs, and
Health.


8. (C) In Siniora's draft cabinet proposal, two of the
sovereign ministries, Defense and Interior, are reserved for
the President. Incumbent Defense Minister Elias Murr remains
the President's nominee for Defense (Ref B). Siniora's
options, to which he purportedly is awaiting responses, imply
that he is holding the Telecommunications, Labor,
Information, and Administration ministries for the majority.
This also indicates he is willing to relinquish Finance,
which he has reportedly been reluctant to do (Siniora is a
former Finance Minister).

SOVEREIGN MINISTRIES
MOST CONTENTIOUS
--------------


9. (C) Many of our interlocutors in the majority, including
former president and Kataeb (Phalange) leader Amine Gemayel,
caretaker Social Affairs Minister Nayla Mouawad, and
caretaker Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh, point
to Aoun as the main obstacle. accuse Free Patriotic Movement
(FPM) leader Michel Aoun of obstructing the process by
insisting on a sovereign ministry for his party. However,
Siniora advisor Mohammed Chatah reported on June 12 after his
meeting with Aoun the day before that Aoun is no longer
demanding a sovereign ministry and is instead considering the
"second tier" ministries.


10. (C) Jumblatt relayed that Aoun refused the Energy and
Water Ministry for his party, even though, according to
Jumblatt, "This is a perfectly good, influential ministry."
(Comment: In fact, we suspect both sides see this as an
unpopular choice because of the negative association with
power outages that are increasing and with the debt-ridden
state electricity firm, Electricite du Liban. End comment.)


11. (C) Ghattas Khoury, advisor to majority leader Saad
Hariri, reporting on a June 11 meeting between Saad and Amal
MP Ali Hassan Khalil, said he believes that Hizballah and
Amal may pressure Aoun to give up his demand for a sovereign
ministry. Khoury further said that President Sleiman may
also persuade Aoun to consider making alternate requests.


12. (C) Aoun's advisor and son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, told us
the June 11 meeting between Aoun and Siniora's advisor
Mohammed Chatah went "extremely well," a sentiment echoed by
Chatah on June 12. Bassil noted Siniora's flexibility in
relinquishing portfolios "which have traditionally been
controlled by the Hariri group since 1992, including the
finance portfolio," while Chatah commented that "Aoun's
desire for a relatively quick formation of a government is
leading him to soften his position."


13. (C) Commenting that further discussion is necessary
between all parties, Bassil said the FPM is proposing to
distribute the four sovereign ministries according to the
following formula: one for the President, and one to each of
the strongest Sunni, Shia, and Christian parties (which
translates to two sovereign ministries for the opposition).

MARONITES COMPETING

BEIRUT 00000884 003 OF 003


FOR THREE POSITIONS
--------------


14. (C) Justice Minister Rizk and other interlocutors, as
well as press reports, have indicated that Gemayel and
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea covet ministerial
positions for themselves, thereby increasing competition for
the six Maronite seats, three which are expected to be filled
by March 14 (Refs C, D). Jumblatt told the Charge June 11
(and Geagea's advisor confirmed to us on June 12) that Geagea
is asking for two cabinet seats for Lebanese Forces, which
Jumblatt dubbed "unrealistic."


15. (C) However, Gemayel's son-in-law Michel Mecattaf told us
on June 12 that Geagea has dropped his personal aspiration to
become a minister in this cabinet, prompting Gemayel to drop
his own demand. (Comment: Gemayel and Geagea's interest in
cabinet seats has been intertwined due to internal March 14
Maronite jockeying for power -- either both or none seemed
likely to get seats. Mecattaf, who is Catholic and therefore
not competing for the Maronite seats, also shared that Saad
informed him he will be a minister in the next cabinet. If
true, this would meet Kataeb's demand for one ministerial
seat. End comment.)


16. (C) Saad's advisor Ghattas Khoury lamented to Charge and
DCM at a June 12 luncheon that Nayla Mouawad is being
"troublesome" with her unmoving demand to retain the Social
Affairs Ministry.

HIZBALLAH NOTHING
BUT SUPPORTIVE
--------------


17. (C) Meanwhile, Hizballah has been busy issuing public
statements of support for Doha. On June 8, Hizballah MP
Hussein Hajj Hassan called for a calming of tensions to pave
the way for implementation of the Doha agreement. Similarly,
on June 11, Hizballah MP Mohammed Raad stressed the need to
implement Doha, in particular, naming the electoral law
amendments, and to form a cabinet "as soon as possible."
Raad called on the government to "bear responsibility for
managing national affairs and create a climate of confidence,
partnership, and stability."


18. (C) Raad also said that Hizballah has not yet received a
response from Siniora on its proposal to trade two Shia
ministers for one Sunni and one Druze, presumably the deal
mentioned to us by Jumblatt whereby Jumblatt would appoint
his Druze rival Talal Arslan as a minister without a
portfolio, and the opposition in turn would allow Jumblatt to
appoint independent Shia Ibrahim Shamseddine as a minister
(Ref E).
SISON