LEBANON: JUMBLATT AND S/P GORDON: EMPOWERING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000838

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, S/P
ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC EAID SY IR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: JUMBLATT AND S/P GORDON: EMPOWERING
MODERATE VOICES, WINNING THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

REF: A. BEIRUT 750 B. BEIRUT 713 C. BEIRUT 733

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a discussion on how the U.S. can support a
sovereign, independent, and stable Lebanon, Policy Planning
Director David Gordon and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt agreed
that empowering moderates and building a regional network of
alternative voices were important long-term strategies. In
the medium-term, the U.S. could work with the GOL to
establish it as a government that serves all confessions,
including the Shia community. Short-term goals include
peeling away Free Patriotic Movement Michel Aoun's Christian
supporters, focusing on March 14 winning the 2009
parliamentary elections, bolstering President Michel Sleiman,
and providing military assistance to the Lebanese Armed
Forces.


2. (C) Jumblatt, noting he does not covet a cabinet position
for himself, spoke of the intense Maronite competition for
cabinet seats, which he believes could mean Justice Minister
Charles Rizk, a Maronite, will not be re-appointed. Jumblatt
is working out an arrangement with the opposition whereby he
would appoint his Druze rival Talal Arslan as a minister
without a portfolio, and the opposition in turn would allow
Jumblatt to appoint independent Shia Ibrahim Shamseddine as a
minister. End summary.


3. (C) In a June 3 visit to Lebanon, Policy Planning Director
David Gordon, Todd Deatherage, and Whitley Wolman of S/P,
accompanied by the Charge, Special Assistant, and PolOff, met
with Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) and Druze leader Walid
Jumblatt at his home in Clemenceau.

REGIONAL NETWORK OF
ALTERNATIVE VOICES
--------------


4. (C) Gordon stressed the importance of empowering
alternative, moderate voices as a long-term strategy,
currently being pursued by the U.S. in Iraq, which could be
applied regionally to include Lebanon. Jumblatt was
receptive to the idea, naming Abdul Aziz Hakim, a prominent
Iraqi theologian and politician with ties to Iran who has
publicly denounced "velayat-e-fagih" (Persian concept of an
Islamic supremacy),as a possible regional partner in
developing an independent Shia regional network. (Note:
Embassy Beirut has been exploring this very idea with several
figures, including independent Shia Lokman Slim and
Jumblatt's PSP Vice-President Duraid Yaghi, Ref A. End note)

NATIONAL GOVERNMENT
SERVES ALL CONFESSIONS
--------------


5. (C) Another goal is to promote the national government as
a government that serves all confessions, and to persuade the
Shia in particular to view the government as their government
too, Gordon proposed. He said this idea was discussed in
Washington when he met with independent Shia, and noted that
he would soon send someone from S/P to explore this concept
further in conjunction with Embassy Beirut.

PEEL AWAY AOUN'S SUPPORT
THROUGH EMPOWERING SLEIMAN
--------------


6. (C) Gordon also spoke of the challenge of peeling away
Hizballah-allied Free Patriotic Movement Michel Aoun's
Christian constituency. He remarked that improved March 14
messaging focused on winning the spring 2009 parliamentary
elections was one way to draw away Aoun's supporters.
Jumblatt agreed that winning the elections was March 14's
primary objective.


7. (C) Jumblatt proposed that President Sleiman could play a
key role in attracting Christian voters. Noting that S/P
would be working to ensure continuity in U.S. policy into the
next administration, Gordon emphasized to Jumblatt the
importance of a visit by Sleiman to the White House.


8. (C) Inquiring whether the U.S. has influence with the
Armenian Tashnaq party, Jumblatt warned that Iran is
increasingly involved with Armenia and potentially with
Tashnaq. He noted that courting the Tashnaq is an
opportunity for March 14, especially after Doha led to a
districting agreement in its favor (Ref C). (Note: Charge and
Poloff will next be meeting with Tashneq leaders on June 6.
End Note)

STRENGTHENING THE LAF
--------------


9. (C) Jumblatt stressed that U.S. support to the Lebanese
Armed Forces is critical. The Charge informed Jumblatt of
Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Eric Edelman's
successful May 31 visit, during which he reinforced the
U.S.'s commitment to provide military training and equipment.
Jumblatt also suggested exploring how to change Syrian
President Bashar Asad's behavior, adding that he was
disappointed to hear that the UN Security Council approved a
six-month extension to UNIIIC, believing an extension sends
the message to Syria that there is no case to try suspects in
former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri's assassination.

SPECULATION ON
CABINET FORMATION
--------------


10. (C) Noting that he is not seeking a ministerial position
for himself, Jumblatt said he sees heavy competition among
the Maronite March 14 leaders for ministerial positions.
Jumblatt confirmed that Elias Murr will stay on as Defense
Minister as one of the President's appointments, and Sleiman
will also choose the Minister of Interior, perhaps former
Defense Attache in Washington retired BG Fares Soufia.
(Note: Other sources close to Sleiman have told us recently
that he will not appoint individuals with military
backgrounds. End note.)


11. (C) Jumblatt believes that March 14 will be selecting
ministers for the Finance, Justice, and Telecommunications
Ministries, but that current Justice Minister Charles Rizk
and Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh are unlikely
to stay on. Jumblatt cited Maronite competition as to why it
is "impossible" for Rizk, a Maronite, to remain in his
Ministry, adding that perhaps the Justice Ministry would be
filled by a Sunni.


12. (C) He thought former President and Kataeb (Phalange)
leader Amine Gemayel was "entitled" to a ministry because his
assassinated son Pierre Gemayel was Minister of Industry at
the time of his murder. According to Jumblatt, Lebanese
Forces leader Samir Geagea should not expect an appointment.
He hopes incumbent Cultural Affairs Minister Tareq Mitri will
be re-appointed.


13. (C) Jumblatt also told us that for the three Druze seats,
he may choose to appoint rival Druze leader Talal Arslan as a
minister but with no portfolio, and the opposition would then
allow Jumblatt to appoint independent Shia Ibrahim
Shamseddine as a minister.


14. (C) The Labor Ministry will likely be retained for a Shia
minister, Jumblatt speculated, because of social security
issues. Jumblatt does not believe Tripoli MP Mosbah Ahdab is
a likely ministerial candidate, explaining that Public Works
and Transportation Minister Mohammed Safadi "seems to be the
preferred candidate" among the Tripoli Sunni politicians.

"CLIMATE OF NONCONFIDENCE"
IN THE MOUNTAINS
--------------


15. (C) Reflecting on how his Druze supporters are faring in
the Chouf in the aftermath of the May clashes with Hizballah,
Jumblatt said they are afraid and living in a "climate of
nonconfidence." He noted that Shia militias are still
positioned throughout the Chouf, and the Druze and Shia are
"watching each other." The LAF is present, he conceded, but
inactive. He reported that later in the day he will meet
with Amal (Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri's opposition
Shia party) members to prepare a for a tour in Keyfoun and
Bisour aimed at reducing tensions. Jumblatt assessed that
Amal is "less-organized and slowly losing influence."


16. (U) S/P Director Gordon did not have an opportunity to
clear this message before departing Beirut.

SISON