LEBANON: DILUTE HIZBALLAH'S INFLUENCE WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000807

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, NEA/PPD
ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PTER UNSC QA AE LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: DILUTE HIZBALLAH'S INFLUENCE WITH
GULF-FUNDED PROJECTS, SAYS LEBANESE EDITOR MROUE

REF: A. BEIRUT 733

B. BEIRUT 570

C. BEIRUT 608

D. BEIRUT 770

E. BEIRUT 758

Classified By: CDA Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) "Daily Star" editor-in-chief and influential Lebanese
Shia figure Jamil Mroue told the Charge that he advised
newly-elected President Michel Sleiman to take immediate
advantage of Emirati and Qatari economic and technological
assistance to improve the daily lives of Lebanese. Mroue,
who has great hopes that Sleiman will reinvigorate the
Christian role in governing Lebanon, believes Sleiman can
also dilute Hizballah's influence on Shia by proactively
rolling out service-oriented initiatives. He stated
emphatically that Sleiman must move swiftly before Emirati
and Qatari interest wanes, and while Hizballah SYG Hassan
Nasrallah is appearing "out of sync" with the Lebanese. End
summary.

ACTIVATE LEADERLESS
CHRISTIANS
--------------


2. (C) The Charge, accompanied byEmbOffs, received Daily
Star editor-in-chief Jamil Mroue at the Embassy on May 29.
Mroue, a prominent Lebanese Shia citizen who has resided in
Abu Dhabi for the past several months, believes the Doha
agreement (Ref A) has the potential to be a "positive
platform moving forward if newly-elected President Michel
Sleiman reintroduces the 'real' Maronite Christians into the
political system."


3. (C) Mroue insisted that Sleiman's power will not be
derived from the cabinet, but instead from the people.
Arguing that March 14 Christian leaders Samir Geagea and
Amine Gemayel can only impact politics "to an extent," Mroue
spoke of a group of "middle of the road" Christians who need
to be activated. These Christians, he explained, are
"powerful economic levers, involved in education, investment,
and reform."

GULF, U.S. SHOULD SUPPORT
SLEIMAN VISION; CHANGE RULES
OF GAME AGAINST HIZBALLAH
--------------


4. (C) Mroue, having met for two hours and provided advice to
President Sleiman one day before Sleiman's May 25 election,
noted the potential he sees in Sleiman. Having glimpsed
Sleiman's acceptance speech during his May 24 meeting and
witnessed its delivery on May 25, Mroue declared it the "best
speech by a Lebanese president."


5. (C) Mroue relayed that he urged Sleiman to accept Emirati
and Qatari financial assistance for visible economic,
education, investment, and reform programs. In particular,
he described the UAE Masdar project (initiative based on
renewable energy technologies including energy security,
climate change, and economic development) as something that
could be valuable to meeting Lebanese needs. (Note: This
information tracks with Sleiman's May 23 mention to Charge of
Gulf interest in assisting Lebanon in the energy sector --
Ref E. End note.) Additionally, Mroue proposed rolling out
technology applications to schools and universities, and said
he had also spoken of this to UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh
Abdullah bin Zayed al Nahyan while in Doha and with UAE
Minister for Higher Education Sheikh Nahyan bin Mubarak al
Nahyan in Abu Dhabi.


6. (C) "These initiatives," Mroue posited, "ignore Hizballah
and change the rules of the game. Nothing can be done
politically to counter Hizballah so instead we should
inundate the Lebanese with projects that dilute Hizballah's
influence." He argued that these kinds of initiatives would

BEIRUT 00000807 002 OF 003


appeal to a segment of Hizballah's Shia supporters and to the
"leaderless" Christians.


7. (C) In close contact with UAE FM Sheikh Abdullh bin Zayed
and Qatari PM and FM Hamad bin Jasse, Mroue relayed that
both were eager to support Sleiman. Mroue suggested the U.S.
could play a positive role in encouraging UAE and Qatari
assistance.


8. (C) Saying that he had recently met with what he called
"Sleiman's new right-hand man" Abdul Hennawi (who was aide de
campe to Sleiman when he was Lebanese Armed Forces
Commander),Mroue told us he passed a message through Hennawi
to Sleiman that the president has "40 days to take action" as
the "shelf-life for UAE and Qatari support may be short."
Mroue told the Charge that Sleiman should immediately launch
his tour of the Arab countries.


9. (C) Mroue said that he has heard from all layers of
society the sentiment that "Lebanon is not worth a dirham
without the Christians." Sleiman is the Christians' last
chance, Mroue declared, and if Sleiman does not have the
tools or "oomph," Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah will be
"setting the agenda."

MEET SHIA NEEDS TO
COUNTER HIZBALLAH
--------------


10. (C) "Nasrallah is not sitting atop a pyramid of immovable
pieces," asserted Mroue. (Note: Although his brother, Malek
Mroue, has been involved with independent Shia activist
Lokman Slim, Jamil Mroue has not been politically active of
late within Shia circles. End note.) According to Mroue, of
the 2,000 people who run Hizballah, 600 to 800 of them are
secularists, and not supporters of "waliat al-fiqi" (Persian
concept of an Islamic state). He said they would not have
joined Hizballah if offered a formidable alternative.
However, he cautioned, you cannot court these Hizballah
members with a sectarian agenda.


11. (C) Mroue recounted a moment when March 14 Druze leader
Walid Jumblatt suggested he enter politics, and he responded
that if he did, he would have a Shia agenda (to counter
Hizballah) which would render Jumblatt and his allies useless
to him. "In the race against Hizballah, the winner has
already received the trophy and it is collecting dust on the
shelf," Mroue declared, "It is too late to enter the race
against Hizballah, but the "civil" race is only just
beginning" (presumably referring to competing through the
provision of services).


12. (C) "It is pointless to round up turbaned rebels or go
for feudal lords," Mroue stated, referring to the Embassy's
relationships with independent Shia (Refs B, C),including
"fired" Mufti of Tyre Ali al-Amin and Ahmad Assad, whose
family name denotes a historically powerful player in
southern Lebanon. He argued that these kinds of figures,
while valuable because they are "thinkers," cannot connect
with mainstream Shia. The mainstream Shia can neither be
courted by Jumblatt ("who heads a fiefdom") nor PM-designate
Fouad Siniora ("who was left in the cold.")

NASRALLAH OUT OF SYNC
--------------


13. (C) Mroue characterized Nasrallah's May 26 televised
speech (Ref D),which he watched with a Hizballah friend, as
an indication that Nasrallah is "out of sync and has cabin
fever." Thinking the speech strange, Mroue said, "It's like
if you are in a coffee shop sitting next to a lady and you
say to the lady, 'I could smash this coffee cup against you,
but instead I am just going to just say hello.' Why does he
have to mention the coffee cup??"

JAMIL MROUE
--------------


14. (C) The Daily Star is Lebanon's leading English-language
daily, founded in 1952. In 1983, Jamil, aided by brother
Malek and Karim, relaunched the paper. After an interruption

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caused by the civil war, Jamil recommenced publishing in

1996. He is currently involved in various business projects
in UAE in Qatar. He moved to Abu Dhabi in late 2007 with his
wife and children to pursue an industrial project.

SISON