LEBANON: GEAGEA WONDERS IF NEW CABINET WILL BE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000790

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: GEAGEA WONDERS IF NEW CABINET WILL BE
FORMED; RECOMMENDS KHOURY AS NEXT LAF COMMANDER

REF: A. BEIRUT 780

B. BEIRUT 759

C. BEIRUT 766

Classified By: CDA Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, pleased that
Fouad Siniora will likely be re-appointed as PM, cast doubt
to the Charge on May 28 that a new cabinet would be formed.
Unconcerned, Geagea explained that a caretaker cabinet
composed of all of the resigned ministers, headed by Siniora,
is preferable to a cabinet in which key ministries are
controlled by the opposition. At least two of the three key
ministries (Interior, Defense, and Finance) he argued, should
be under the control of March 14 members, rather than
opposition figures. Siniora was re-appointed as PM in a
parliamentary vote later that day.


2. (C) Geagea believes that current LAF G-2 (military
intelligence) Director General Georges Khoury is the best
candidate for LAF Commander, in spite of Saad Hariri's wishes
that Khoury not be appointed. Geagea expressed concern that
the Republican Guard at President Michel Sleiman's Baabda
Palace are "infiltrated by Syrian loyalists."

SAAD NOT THE "RIGHT MAN"
FOR PM AT THIS TIME
--------------


3. (C) The Charge, accompanied by PolOff, met with Lebanese
Forces leader Samir Geagea, and his advisors Elie Khoury and
Joseph Tohme, at his residence in Maarab on May 28. Geagea
reported on his meetings the previous day with newly-elected
President Michel Sleiman, PM Fouad Siniora, and the March 14
leaders. Geagea relayed that Siniora and majority leader
Saad Hariri had agreed prior to the larger March 14 meeting
the night before that Siniora should be nominated as the next
PM (Ref A),and the larger group collectively concurred.
(Note: Parliament endorsed Siniora as the new PM a few hours
after this meeting. End note)


4. (C) Geagea added that Progressive Socialist Party leader
Walid Jumblatt was intentionally late to the meeting to
absolve himself of any future blame. (Note: Jumblatt was
meeting at his residence with the Charge when the March 14
meeting started, and was in no hurry to move to his next
appointment. End note.)


5. (C) Geagea said that although this decision was supported
by the Saudis, Egyptians, and Emiratis, Saad is still upset
because he felt as if he had carried Sleiman to the
presidency and now, "His baby is being taken by another
mother." Nevertheless, Geagea is pleased, saying, "Saad is
not up to the challenges that lie ahead. He is not
consistently strategic, his emotions affect his
decision-making, and his supporters lost faith in his ability
to protect him (during the recent clashes)."

CASTING DOUBT ON PROSPECTS
FOR A NEW GOVERNMENT
--------------


6. (C) Geagea cautioned the Charge against the U.S. issuing
formal congratulations to PM-designate Siniora until the
cabinet is formed -- a process he suspects may not be so
easy. He believes the opposition will make demands for
cabinet positions that the majority is not willing to meet.
Geagea expects President Sleiman to choose one of his own
people as the Minister of Interior. Rejecting the likelihood
of MP Michel Murr as the next Interior Minister, Geagea
believes it will be someone "apolitical," such as retired
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) BG Fares Soufia, head of Military
Police BG Nabil Ghafari, industrialist Neemot Frem, or
Ghassan Khoury.


7. (C) In the event a cabinet is not formed, he explained,
the resigned ministers constitute a caretaker cabinet and the

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PM is considered a PM-designate. According to Geagea, the
caretaker cabinet does not meet officially, and only in
emergency cases, can approve bills. He anticipates such an
emergency case could be approving the next LAF Commander.
Such a cabinet could not make economic or budgetary
decisions, he continued, and so the current year's budget
would be approved for next year with only a cost of living
adjustment.


8. (C) Accepting the idea of a caretaker cabinet, Geagea
reasoned that an Acting Cabinet is preferable to a Cabinet in
which the opposition holds key ministries. Moreover, he
explained, it would give March 14 breathing space becuse it
would still control the ministries it hastoday, led by a
favorable PM.


9. (C) Within a few days, Geagea predicted, we will know
whether a Cabinet will be formed. He conjectured that Qatari
PM and FM Hamad bin Jassem and Arab League Secretary General
Amr Moussa may need to intervene again.


10. (C) Geagea also questioned the assumption that Parliament
would begin to convene regularly now that a President is
elected. He said it is likely Berri will convene Parliament
for when it is personally advantageous, such as to approve a
new electoral law.

MARCH 14 SHOULD NOT CEDE
DEFENSE AND INTERIOR MINISTRIES
--------------


11. (C) Acknowledging that March 14 is still discussing which
ministries it is not willing to cede, Geagea insisted that
March 14 should keep either Defense or Interior Ministries.
Assuming President Sleiman appoints either the Interior or
Defense Minister (but not both),Geagea expects that March 14
will appoint the other, as well as the Finance Minister. Of
the Education, Public Works, and Health Ministries, Geagea
believes the opposition will appoint one of these ministers,
and the majority will appoint the other two.

NO MORE INDEPENDENT
MINISTERS
--------------


12. (C) Geagea was adamant that March 14 appoint members of
the coalition, instead of independent figures, as ministers
of key posts. In particular, he said, it is time for a
change in the Defense Ministry. He said that neither the
Defense nor Justice Ministers should be independent. "We
need fighters in major Cabinet positions, and independents in
minor positions," he strategized.

THOUGHTS ON NEXT LAF COMMANDER
--------------


13. (C) In a short follow-on one-on-one session with the
Charge at his request, Geagea volunteered several names for
the next LAF Commander. Noting that LAF Acting Commander MG
Shawki al-Masri, a Druze, is "not fit for the job to continue
even as Acting," he described LAF G-2 (military intelligence)
BG Georges Khoury, a Maronite, as best-suited for the
position. Admitting that Saad is "very opposed" to Khoury,
Geagea said, "At least we know him and know what we are
getting." Regarding two prospective candidates for LAF
Commander, Second Brigade Commander, BG Jean Kawaji and the
Commander of the Tenth Brigade, BG Charles Chikhani, Geagea
said they are "OK, but we don't know them very well." Geagea
rejected Commander South of the Litani BG Boulos Mattar,
saying he is "too close to (Free Patriotic Movement leader)
Michel Aoun."


14. (C) Geagea forcefully rejected Mount Lebanon LAF G-2
Commander BG Joseph Njeim as the next LAF G-2 Commander,
saying that he is too close to the Syrians via the magnate of
the pro-Syria al-Diyar newspaper, Charles Ayoub.

CONCERN THAT PRESIDENT'S
REPUBLICAN GUARD IS "INFILTRATED"
--------------


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15. (C) Noting that the Republican Guards at Baabda Palace
(presidential palace) are the same that worked under
Syrian-allied former President Emile Lahoud, Geagea warned
that the Republican Guards are infiltrated with Syrian
loyalists.

BERRI'S STAFF "MESSED UP" PROTOCOL
FOR SLEIMAN RECEPTION
--------------


16. (C) Geagea clarified to the Charge that both he and
Social Affairs Minister and former First Lady Nayla Mouawad
abruptly left the gala dinner in honor of Sleiman's election
on May 25 because they were not seated at the head table, as
protocol should have dictated. Geagea said he was insulted
that Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh (who like Geagea is not
an MP) was seated at the head table, and attributed the
"inappropriate" seating arrangements to opposition stalwart
and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is "acting like a
victor after Doha."


17. (C) Geagea told the Charge, who was seated by Berri's
protocol team at a table with LAF G-2 Director General
Georges Khoury, Internal Security Forces (ISF) Director
General Ashraf Rifi, Surete Generale Director General BG
Wafiq Jezzine, and State Security Director General BG Elias
Ka'ikati, that she was intentionally put there as part of the
"intelligence community's table." (Comment: State Security
is technically "disbanded" but still has some manpower and
reports through Surete Generale. The Charge suspects she was
seated at this table because Khoury and Jezzine are eyeing
LAF positions and wanted to make their appeals to her.
Although the LAF commander position historically is reserved
for Maronites, Shia Jezzine served as Michel Sleiman's aide
for six years. Meanwhile, Khoury views himself as a front
runner for LAF Commander. End comment.)

SISON