LEBANON: ZAHLE LEADERS ARGUE NEW ELECTORAL LAW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000727

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO
DOD/OSD FOR USDP EDELMAN, ASD MBLONG, DASD KIMMITT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR ASEC UNSC EAIR SA IR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ZAHLE LEADERS ARGUE NEW ELECTORAL LAW
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

REF: BEIRUT 718

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a May 19 luncheon with Zahle politicians and
prominent figures, the Charge heard arguments for why a new
electoral law, and in particular passing the Boutros
Commission law, is tantamount, even more important than
electing a president, because it could redistribute the votes
in a way that would alter the parliamentary composition.
Former Deputy Speaker of Parliament Elie Ferzeli said that
resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict was critical to resolving
Lebanon's problems. He identified Hizballah, fundamentalism
(by all religions),and Palestinian arms as the three biggest
problems facing Lebanon, adding that Lebanon cannot tackle
these problems until the government is uified. In addition
to agreeing on a new electora law, Ferzeli and the Mayor of
Zahle, Assad Zgei, argued that the government should focus
on institution-building. End summary.


2. (C) The Charge, accompanied by DATT and EmbOffs, attended
a May 19 luncheon in Zahle, hosted by the Mayor of Zahle
Assad Zgeib. Elie Ferzeli, former Deputy Speaker, Richard
Jeresseiti, former Lebanese Forces member, and Mayor Zgeib's
wife and brother Raymond Zgeib joined the luncheon. Zahle is
west of Bekaa Valley and is a primarily Christian town. It
was the site of an April 20 altercation between opposition
activists and supporters of Phalange which resulted in two
deaths.

SHOULD ENACT BOUTROS LAW
WITHOUT DELAY
--------------


3. (C) Elie Ferzeli was adamant that the political leaders
currently negotiating in Doha (reftel) should focus on
passing the Boutros law as the new electoral law. Agreement
on a new electoral law is tantamount, more pressing than
electing a president, he argued. He reported that he heard
from opposition bloc MP Elie Skaff, who is in Doha, that the
issue of redistricting Beirut is stalling negotiations over a
new electoral law. (Note: In particular, Ferzeli told us
the question of the Armenian votes factored into the Doha
negotiations. Under the 2000 law, the Armenian votes were in
the same district as Sunni votes, whereas a return to the
1960 law would mean that the Christians would vote for
Christian MPs, which could advantage the Christian Armenians.
End note.)


4. (C) Jeresseiti interjected that the Boutros law is too
complicated for the voters to understand. Ferzeli responded,
"So? It is time to move our country to a more advanced legal
system." Ferzeli proposed that the leaders in Doha take
"strategic advantage" of the recent clashes to calm things
down, prepare for presidential elections, agree on a new
electoral law, and wait for a new U.S. administration, which
he expects would "accelerate" the Middle East peace process.


5. (C) According to Ferzeli, the parliamentary elections are
on schedule to take place at the end of spring 2009.
However, he stressed, the elections hinge on whether there is
a new electoral law. He believes the parliamentary
elections, with a new electoral law, are more important than
presidential elections, because the balance of party
representation will change.

MIDDLE EAST PEACE
PROCESS MOST IMPORTANT
--------------


6. (C) "The Middle East peace process is the heart of the
regional conflict," Ferzeli declared. Downplaying the
relevance of Iraq to regional strife, he insisted it is the
Israeli-Arab conflict that lies at the center. He asserted

BEIRUT 00000727 002 OF 002


that Israel's existence is no longer in question, but rather
is accepted. He said it was time for Lebanon to think of
peace with Israel. "Resolving this," he argued, "will change
the rules of the game, the rules of the struggle throughout
the region. Hizballah's ideological rationale for its
existence, as a resistance against Israel, would no longer be
accepted."

THREE STRATEGIC PROBLEMS
--------------


7. (C) Explaining that there are three main problems facing
Lebanon -- Hizballah, fundamentalism (including Christians),
and armed Palestinians -- Ferzeli argued that the unity of
Lebanon is a prerequisite before dealing with these three
issues. "They cannot do anything at Doha regarding
Hizballah's arms. The game is over. Even UNSCR 1559 does
not have the power to deal with it anymore," Ferzeli
declared. (Note: Ferzeli told us he survived three
assassination attempts. The most severe, which left him
blind in one eye and scarred on his face, was perpetrated by
Lebanese Forces Samir Geagea, and explains why Ferzeli was
certain to include some Christians as part of the
"fundamentalist" problem. End note.)

SHIA NOT READY TO RULE
--------------


8. (C) Ferzeli, who resides in the town of Jobbjannine just
south of Zahle, argued that the Shia do not want to rule
Lebanon because they are not ready. He reasoned that they do
not have strong relations with the West, nor a strong
commercial base or educational institutions. Therefore, he
continued, the Christians should reassert itself as the "face
of the government." They are well-positioned to do so, he
said, because they are the cushion between Sunni and Shia.
He also noted that the Sunni Mufti of Jobbjannine, Syed
Khalil Mayss, is "an extremist who takes money from (Future
leader) Saad Hariri."

ADVOCATING INSTITUTION-BUILDING
--------------


9. (C) In addition to electoral reform, Ferzeli argued that
the government should focus on institution-building. Zahle
Mayor Zgeib, expressing his appreciation for USAID assistance
in building Zahle's solid waste treatment/recycling facility,
said he was hoping to have his city participate in the carbon
credit program, run by the World Bank. He noted that the
World Bank did not accept Zahle because it deemed his city
too small.


10. (U) Bio Info:

-- Assad Zgeib: Affiliated with opposition MP Elie Skaf.
Engineer by profession.

-- Richard Jeresseiti: Engineer and subcontractor, involved
in U.S. Embassy Bahdad construction. Father heads Zahle
Chamber of Commerce. Has broken relationship off with Samir
Geagea of Lebanese Forces.

-- Elie Ferzeli - Deputy Speaker of the Parliament 1992-2005.
Orthodox Christian, part of former PM Omar Karami's
"National Gathering." When Zahle violence took place April
20, he played a constructive role, encouraging Amine Gemayel
and Elie Skaf to talk to one another and calm the situation.

SISON