LEBANON: GEMAYEL, DUBIOUS BUT READY, FOR DOHA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000700

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR ASEC UNSC EAIR SA IR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: GEMAYEL, DUBIOUS BUT READY, FOR DOHA

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Former President and Phalange leader Amine Gemayel
declared on May 15 that Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel
Aoun was obstructing the Arab League's efforts to put out a
statement concluding its delegation's trip to Beirut,
presumably because he still harbors presidential aspirations.
The Arab League statement was acceptable to Gemayel, and his
party issued its interpretation of the statement, emphasizing
the need for confidence-building and stressing its two
priorities to preserve Lebanese sovereignty and to extend the
GOL's authority throughout the country. Gemayel said he is
not confident about the Arab League-sponsored talks scheduled
in Doha for May 16, but that he is ready to participate. He
requested that the U.S. make a statement of support for the
talks in Doha, noting that he is concerned about Qatar's
friendly relationship with Syria.


2. (C) The USG's response to the recent escalation
disappointed Gemayel, and he is looking to the U.S. to draw
its red lines in Lebanon that it will defend at any cost, and
communicate these red lines to the GOL, while directing them
at Syria and Iran. "Hizballah plans to invest in its recent
victory, and will not spend it on a compromise," Gemayel
feared. He reported that he heard 50 Syrian dissidents in
Lebanon were placed under house arrest by Hizballah and
pro-Syrian SSNP, under the orders of the Syrian intelligence.
End summary.

AOUN OBSTRUCTING
ARAB LEAGUE STATEMENT
--------------


3. (C) The Charge, accompanied by Defense Attache and PolOff,
met with former President and Phalange leader Amine Gemayel,
his son Samy, and Second Vice-President of Phalange Salim
Sayegh at Amine's Beirut residence on May 15. Gemayel
reported that Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun was
trying to change the draft statement resulting from the
Qatari-led Arab League delegation sent to calm Lebanon's
current situation. Aoun, who still harbors presidential
aspirations, was attempting to change the text on electing a
president, Gemayel said. "It is clear that Aoun is trying to
obstruct the process," he sighed. Gemayel noted that the
delegation's meeting with the opposition at the Phoenicia
Hotel was lasting longer than expected, purportedly because
of Aoun.


4. (C) During the meeting, Lebanese Forces leader Samir
Geagea called, and Gemayel relayed that Geagea accepted the
proposed statement, adding that a key sentence had been
changed since last night's version. The previous statement
called on all parties to agree to not use weapons "to solve
internal conflicts," and was amended to state "for political
gains."

HIZBALLAH'S WEAPONS
NOT EXPLICITLY NAMED
--------------


5. (C) Gemayel expressed concern regarding the statement's
sequencing because it called for a national unity government
before a presidential election, which goes against the
constitution. Recognizing the statement's value in reducing
tensions, he said he is also worried that Hizballah's arms
are not explicitly mentioned. He said he believes the
election of a new president will not solve the problem as
long as Hizballah possesses its weapons and can re-invade
Beirut, the mountains, and the north.

READY, BUT LACKING
CONFIDENCE, FOR DOHA
--------------


6. (C) He is prepared to travel to Doha tomorrow (May 16) for
the Arab-League sponsored talks with Lebanese political
leaders, to be based on the National Dialogue model of 14
participants. He noted that Hizballah Secretary General

BEIRUT 00000700 002 OF 003


Hassan Nasrallah would not attend, and could send Political
Advisor Hussein Khalil. He agreed that involving moderate
Shia in these talks is important, but should be considered at
a later stage. He said he had low expectations for anything
substantive coming out of the talks and is concerned about
Qatar's ties to Syria and how that will play out.

PHALANGE INTERPRETS
ARAB LEAGUE STATEMENT
--------------


7. (C) In the meantime, he said, his Phalange party issued a
statement offering its own interpretation of the Arab League
draft statement. The Phalange remarks stress the importance
of the Arab League statement's point on "rebuilding
confidence among parties." Gemayel emphasized that this
point was inserted before the appeals to form a government
and agree on a new electoral law. For Gemayel,
confidence-building is essential and Hizballah's arms and
other hot issues can be addressed through such measures. The
most important goals, according to Gemayel, are to preserve
Lebanon's sovereignty and to extend the GOL's authority
throughout the country.


8. (C) Gemayel expressed he and his party's willingness to
participate in the next government, stressing the Phalange's
commitment to Lebanon after losing two of its members
(including his son Pierre) to the strife.

USG NEEDS TO ESTABLISH
ITS REDLINES
--------------


9. (C) The USG reaction to the situation in Lebanon was too
lax, Gemayel said, and its statements were too weak. Before
the talks commenced in Doha, he said he considered it
essential to know the USG position and what the GOL could
count on from the USG. He said he feared the opposition will
impose additional conditions on the majority, saying
"Hizballah is planning on going all the way. The signals are
clear that Hizballah wants to invest in its victory and not
spend it on a compromise." Gemayel said he needs to know
what the U.S. is willing to allow. He asked that the U.S.
issue a statement supporting the talks in Doha.


10. (C) "The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) do not need more
arms!" he declared, "Instead, we need the U.S. to draw its
red lines in Lebanon and make it clear to Iran and Syria that
it is ready to preserve these red lines at any cost." An
upset Gemayel argued that this clarification would have been
useful prior to the recent escalation, but is necessary in
case the violence resumes. "This is not a civil war,"
Gemayel clarified, "it is a war."


11. (C) Samy Gemayel interjected, warning, "The alternative
for frustrated Sunnis is Al Qaeda. Fighters from Saad
Hariri's Future Movement have threatened to turn to jihad
(holy war) because they feel there is no other way."

PROTECTION LEBANON'S
SANCTUARIES
--------------


12. (C) The airport, port, and the Grand Serail (where the
Prime Minister sits) are sanctuaries in Lebanon, Amine
Gemayel said, and should be protected as such. He lamented
that he does not see a LAF security presence anywhere, adding
that Samy was at their Bikfaya residence earlier in the day
and did not see any LAF troops, despite its proximity to
pro-Syrian SSNP supporters. He added that he did not know if
the GOL could resist another attack because Hizballah is led
by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

SYRIAN DISSIDENTS REPORTEDLY
NABBED BY MUKHABARAT
--------------


13. (C) Gemayel shared with us that he heard 50 Syrian
dissidents (who had signed the Damascus Declaration),living
in West Beirut, were arrested at their homes by Hizballah and
the SSNP, under the orders of the Syrian mukhabarat
(intelligence),and transferred to Damascus.

BEIRUT 00000700 003 OF 003


SISON