LEBANON: SINIORA PLEASED WITH ARAB LEAGUE; WON'T

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000027

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER, STATE FOR NEA/ELA,
NEA/FO:KHARRINGTON, MPOPAL,

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2018
TAGS: ENIV PGOV PREL PTER LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SINIORA PLEASED WITH ARAB LEAGUE; WON'T
ACCEPT 10-10-10

REF: STATE 01197

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Summary: Meeting with the Ambassador on Monday 1/7,
Prime Minister Siniora appeared pleased with the Arab
League's weekend effort to find a solution to the
presidential impasse, and promised to "extend a hand" to the
Hizballah-led opposition, although not agreeing to a
"10-10-10" cabinet split. He called Arab League SYG Moussa
and confirmed that Moussa, in interpreting the Arab League
communique, is not talking about a "10-10-10" cabinet,
either. Siniora plans to stress support for the Arab League
and a constitutional solution to the current crisis. He will
reach out to Arab states beginning with a trip to the
Emirates tonight (1/7). He will also reach out to EU
countries, and feels very positive towards Spanish PM
Zapatero, who visited Lebanon during the 1/5-6 weekend.
Saying that the recently stepped up attacks against him are a
result of his "respectful but harsh" response to Nasrallah's
speech last week, he reported that eminent Shia Sheikh
Fadlallah has requested a "media truce." Ambassador raised
with Siniora request from reftel that Lebanon solicit
increased Tribunal contributions; Siniora agreed and said he
would ask UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. End summary.

INSISTING ARAB LEAGUE
DID NOT MEAN 10-10-10 CABINET
--------------


2. (C) In a meeting with Prime Minister Fouad Siniora on
January 7, the Ambassador, accompanied by Poloff, raised his
concerns about the apparent willful misinterpretation by the
opposition in Lebanon of the communique issued after the
weekend meeting in Cairo of Arab foreign ministers. After a
dinner meeting on 1/5, chaired by Arab League Secretary
General Amr Moussa, the group produced a document calling for
electing a Lebanese president through constitutional means,
and a national unity government with a cabinet of thirty
ministers, where the majority cannot force through a decision
nor could the minority block one. Although, Siniora
reported, by all reports the discussion in Cairo revolved
around either a 14-10-6 cabinet, or a 15-10-5 one, the
opposition in Lebanon immediately challenged this thinking by
claiming that the only equable solution would be a 10-10-10
split.


3. (C) Siniora said with great firmness that the decision of
the cabinet makeup is strictly in the hands of the Lebanese,
and it will not be a 10-10-10 cabinet. He admitted that he
favors the 15-10-5 split, but he believes that it is
important for the Arab League to re-take the initiative in
attempting to resolve the Lebanese impasse, and they alone
can identify what they meant by an impartial cabinet split.
Saying that it was "out of the question" that Moussa was
thinking of a 10-10-10 split, he added that Moussa had made
the point that he did not want to talk "numbers." Siniora
immediately asked for a call to be put through to Moussa,
which took place at the end of the meeting.

ACKNOWLEDGING BERRI'S OBSESSION
AGAINST HIM
--------------


4. (C) Siniora stressed the importance for March 14 of taking
a polite but firm stand with the opposition, and not be
dragged off into side issues. The theme would be, "We are
for the Arab League, and everything has to be done within the
constitution." He would like, without embarrassing anyone,
to facilitate March 8,s exit from the corner where it finds
itself. March 14 will have the army, the church, and the
Arab League on its side, and will be dealing from a position
of strength. Siniora said he called Speaker Nabih Berri, who
is, as Siniora said, "getting crazy about me," but did not
receive a return call. "I am extending a hand. Let him stay
stupid."


5. (C) Moussa is due in Beirut in two days, but tonight
Siniora leaves for a trip to the Emirates to raise several
issues, among them continued support for the Arab League
initiative. He plans to make it clear that Egypt and Saudi
Arabia are behind it, and will make it work.

BEIRUT 00000027 002 OF 002



PUSHING GOL TO TAKE THE LEAD
ON FUNDING FOR SPECIAL TRIBUNAL
--------------


6. (C) The Ambassador also raised request from reftel that
Lebanon take the lead in soliciting Special Tribunal
donations. The Ambassador reviewed how shortfalls in funding
contributions can slow the tribunal's formation, and he asked
Siniora to do the equivalent of a worldwide demarche asking
for financial support. Siniora agreed to raise this issue on
his current trip. Saying that Qatar "won't help," he said
that he has sent letters to many Arab countries requesting
financial support, including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the
UAE. He plans to contact the SYG of the UN and ask to join
forces in seeking contributions.

LOOKING TO EUROPE FOR SUPPORT FOR ARAB LEAGUE;
FINDING SPANISH PM ZAPATERO BETTER THAN MORATINOS
--------------


7. (C) Saying that French Charge Andre Parent has promised to
contact Paris and ask for support for the Arab League
initiative, Siniora also said that he would be contacting a
number of European countries to raise the issue. He felt
that Spain would be supportive and was very enthusiastic
about his meeting with Spanish prime minister Jose Luis
Zapatero during the weekend 1/5-6. Siniora went out to the
airport to meet with Zapatero, who, along with Minister of
Defense Jose Antonio Alonso, came to Beirut after reviewing
the Spanish contingent of UNIFIL in southern Lebanon. Saying
that Zapatero was "easier" than Spanish Foreign Minister
Moratinos, Siniora spoke with pleasure of the "positive body
language" on the part of the two Spaniards, and felt that it
was an excellent half-hour discussion. He said that the
Spanish had taken very seriously the threat against their
troops conveyed to them by the GOL, but preferred not to
acknowledge it openly at this time.

ASKING SHIA LEADERS TO LOWER RHETORIC
--------------


8. (C) Asked about the virulent attacks against him appearing
recently in the press and on the part of opposition leaders,
Siniora said that after Nasrallah's speech last week, and
Siniora's "respectful but harsh" response, Nasrallah "went
crazy." Hizballah actually went to the extreme of asking two
Sunni clerics to say that Siniora was an Israeli, and "if he
dies, no one will pray for him." Siniora said that he called
prominent Shia leader Sheikh Fadlallah and told him that he
was responsible, and added, "You don't have the only crazy
people," implying that there are Sunni extremists, too.
Fadlallah said that he was trying to impose restraint, and
asked for a media truce.

CALLING MOUSSA TO SPIN COMMUNIQUE
--------------


9. (C) Siniora ended the meeting saying that, after his
arrival in the Emirates tonight, he would like to call
Secretary Rice to update her on the situation with the Arab

SIPDIS
League communique. He then took his call to Amr Moussa.
During a fanciful monologue, ranging from the difficulties
determining the truth of the Prophet's words after his death,
through parables from Jesus Christ, and ending with a
reference to a local popular singer, Siniora charmed Moussa,
who reportedly agreed that he had no interest in discussing
particular numbers for a cabinet split, and had not advocated
a 10-10-10 solution.
FELTMAN