LEBANON: UN SPECIAL COORDINATOR FOR LEBANON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000196

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

CAIRO PLEASE PASS TO A/S DAVID WELCH;
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/HARDING
STATE PASS TO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL UNSC PTER SY IS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: UN SPECIAL COORDINATOR FOR LEBANON
PESSIMISTIC ABOUT POLITICAL PROGRESS

REF: BEIRUT 195

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Geir Pedersen, who
ends his three year tour of duty in Lebanon next week,
provided a frank and fairly pessimistic assessment of
Lebanon's state of affairs for the newly arrived Ambassador.
In his opinion, the current political crisis will last for
months, and the situation was becoming more tense along the
"Blue Line" border between Israel and Lebanon. He said that,
while neither party seems to want a repeat of the 2006 war,
Hizballah may again start to act somewhat provocatively.
"This should be watched very carefully," said Pedersen. In
conclusion, he told us that there could be a six month gap
before his replacement, still unnamed, arrives in Beirut.
End Summary.


2. (U) On February 9, UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon,
Geir Pedersen, and his political aide, Rami Shehadeh, joined
the Ambassador, DCM, Pol/Econ Chief and Special Assistant for
coffee. Pedersen, who does not seem unhappy to be leaving
Beirut for Oslo and a return to the Norwegian Foreign
Ministry, provided insight for the Ambassador on a number of
topics.

The Opposition No Longer Trusts Sleiman
--------------


3. (C) The Ambassador provided an overview of her
conversation with Arab League SYG Amr Moussa earlier that
morning (reftel). Pedersen was not surprised to hear that no
major breakthroughs had been made during Moussa's most recent
visit to Beirut. Pedersen predicts that the political vacuum
may continue for months and commented that many think the
opposition is willing to wait until the November 2008 U.S.
presidential elections. "This is a dangerous game they are
playing," said Pedersen. "They had better hope that no
crisis or disaster catches them unprepared."


4. (C) Pedersen is convinced that the opposition no longer
wants LAF Commander General Michel Sleiman to become
president. Pedersen thinks that Aoun has concluded that a
popular Christian figure like Sleiman as president will erode
his own core constituency of supporters. "He'll never let
that happen," said Pedersen. However, he did think that
Sleiman had not quite managed to keep himself above the
political fray in recent months. Pedersen heard from a
number of sources that Sleiman threatened to run candidates
against Aoun loyalists in key districts during the 2009
parliamentary elections. Pedersen does not know if this was
a direct threat by Sleiman or an interpretation by the
Aounists, but it has done nothing to calm the fears of Aoun
and his supporters.


5. (C) Pedersen said Hizballah has also become increasingly
more suspicious of Sleiman. When March 14 chose Sleiman as
their consensus candidate, it came as a tremendous surprise.
According to Pedersen, "They concluded that Saad (Hariri) had
just bought him outright." Sleiman's recent refusals to
provide concessions to the opposition before the election
seem to be fueling this theory. Hariri's recent speech to
drum up public support for demonstrations on February 14th to
mark the third anniversary of his father's assassination have
also been interpreted as a "Sunni threat against the Shia."

SYG's Office Not Ready for Tribunal Announcement
--------------


6. (C) Pedersen who had just returned the previous evening
from consultations at UN headquarters, said that the UN SYG
will not be ready to announce full funding for the Tribunal
on February 14th. While recent pledges have indeed increased
the total number of funds, the SYG cannot publicly confirm
the pledges until the money is actually transferred to NY
accounts. In addition, the total number of pledges still
falls short of the USD 50 million target for the first year.


7. (C) Pedersen told us that the compensation package for

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Lebanese judges to the Tribunal also needed to be finalized.
There will then be a consultation phase, because the SYG's
office does not want the package to be publicly rejected by
judges once it is released.

Situation is Tense Along the Southern Border
--------------


8. (C) Pedersen told us that UNIFIL had almost completed an
investigation of the cross-border shooting incident on
February 3, which left one person dead. "At this time, there
is no evidence that there were any shots fired from the
Lebanese side of the border," he said. Pedersen reminded us
that this was the same area where Israeli soldiers had been
kidnapped in 2006. Any movement on the Lebanese side of this
portion of the border makes the Israeli military extremely
nervous.


9. (C) From discussions with both Hizballah and the Israelis,
Pedersen is convinced that neither side wants a repetition of
the 2006 war. However, after 18 months of relative peace and
respect for the provisions of UNSCR 1701 by Hizballah,
Pedersen thinks this could be on the verge of changing.
Hizballah has recently gone public with statements promising
retaliatory action against Israeli offenses. Pedersen also
highlighted a recent statement from Osama Bin Laden, which
criticized Hizballah's recent "cooperative" profile and
called them "the protectors of the Crusaders." Finally, he
told us that progress on Annapolis conference goals will
likely produce defensive reactions in Tehran and Damascus
which could play out along the Lebanese border. Pedersen
said this whole situation needed to be watched very carefully
in the weeks to come. He confirmed that he was definitely
more pessimistic about this issue now than only a few weeks
ago.


10. (C) To improve the situation, Pedersen said that there
must be a real breakthrough on the issue of prisoner
exchanges. He thinks Hizballah may have been holding out on
providing "proof of life" or a compromise in the hopes of
creating domestic political pressure on Israeli PM Olmert.
Pedersen hopes this line of thinking will disappear now that
Olmert has "survived" the issuance of the Winograd Report
assessing the war in 2006. Pedersen also hopes that
completion of the UN's demarcation of the Blue Line will lead
to further stability. Finally, he said that the Israelis had
recently released some targeting data for the cluster bombs.
If this proves to be accurate and useful data, Pedersen
considers it an important development.

German Project Troubled, But Need to Also Maintain Pressure
on the GOL
--------------


11. (C) Pedersen agreed with donor criticisms of the German
management of the Northern Border Pilot Project (NBPP).
Clearly, their self-defined roles as advisors vs.
coordinators and mentors was causing probems here on the
ground and pressure should be mantained on the Germans to
improve their performace. However, Pedersen also thought
that pressure should be equally applied to the GOL to live up
to their commitments on this project. The Common Border
Force (CBF) has not become a truly integrated inter-agency
endeavor and until there is progress on key GOL coordination
issues, such as inter-agency intelligence sharing, results on
the ground will be limited. Pedersen wants to keep all
parties focused on implementation of UNSCR 1701. "You
pressure the Lebanese security agencies and I will pressure
Hizballah to keep their end of the bargain." Finally,
Pedersen said that arms smuggling into Lebanon will only stop
if a political decision is taken in Tehran and Damascus. He
thinks the Israelis are well aware of this reality. However,
he said that any progress on the Lebanese side of the border
should be viewed positively.


12. (C) In a separate meeting on February 8, Special
Assistant and Shehadeh discussed the German border project in
greater detail. Shehadeh and his colleagues will likely
recommend that a second Lebanese International Border
Assessment Team (LIBAT) be dispatched in June 2008 to prepare
a second report (one year after the original) on the border
situation.

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Don't Forget the Sheba'a Farms
--------------


13. (C) Finally, Pedersen urged the Ambassador to work with
Washington to keep the Sheba'a Farms issue on the agenda for
political discussions. Saying that this issue would not go
away, he believes it is important to at least show that there
is a continuous diplomatic process in place. "A solution may
be hard to find, the process is important, as well." He
noted that Hizballah certainly had not forgotten the issue.
He said it had been their habit to shoot minor munitions into
the area periodically, referring to them as "reminder
missions."

Possible Long Gap at the UN Office
--------------


14. (C) After his recent meetings in New York, Pedersen
confirmed that his successor still had not been named. While
not specifying a name, he told us that the leading candidate
could not be on the ground for at least six months. He has
urged that UN Headquarters develop a regular system of
high-level visitors to Beirut and/or temporary replacements
to maintain the UN's profile here in Lebanon. He told us
that Mike Moller, currently serving in Cyprus, had been
suggested as a temporary replacement but may reject the offer
as he is still hoping for the permanent assignment. UNDP
Director Marta Ruedes will hold the "Acting" title, but
Shehadeh and his colleagues in the political section will
still continue the day-to-day duties, which include
consultations with Hizballah.
SISON