LEBANON: PM SINIORA SAYS HE, SLEIMAN, PROACTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001808

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, AND NEA/IPA
ALSO FOR I/O A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE IS
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PM SINIORA SAYS HE, SLEIMAN, PROACTIVE
WITH HIZBALLAH IN GAZA AFTERMATH

REF: BEIRUT 1805

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) On December 31, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora informed
the Ambassador and DCM that the GOL was taking a proactive
approach with Hizballah in response to the situation in Gaza.
He and President Sleiman were in contact with Hizballah
officials daily, Siniora said, as well as with leaders of the
Palestinian factions in Lebanon, warning them that a conflict
in South Lebanon was not what the Lebanese people needed or
wanted. The Ambassador urged the PM to ask the Lebanese
delegation in Cairo to support a Gaza ceasefire that would be
fully respected, permanent, and sustainable. The GOL,
Siniora said, supported a Doha Arab summit attended by heads
of state, but revealed the Arab League had not yet reached a
quorum of 15 participants. An immediate ceasefire, opening
of points of entry, and the restoration of law and order were
important to ending the crisis in Gaza, Siniora said. In
addition, the GOL encouraged Palestinian and Arab solidarity.



2. (C) Siniora blamed "Iranian fingers" for current problems
in the region and suggested an Arab-international force could
be useful to restore calm. In a separate conversation with
Ambassador, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt echoed Siniora's
dismay with the Iranians and also ruled out the possibility
of a Lebanese-Israeli confrontation as the result of the Gaza
situation. On another issue, Siniora was not aware of
funding problems for the provision of U.S. M-60 tanks to
Lebanon from Jordan, but said he would look into the matter.
Siniora said he believed the last four years had not been
good for Lebanon, and did not appear to have a positive view
of the start of 2009. End summary.

GOL TAKING PROACTIVE APPROACH WITH
HIZBALLAH, OTHER FOREIGN LEADERS
--------------


3. (C) In a December 31 meeting with Prime Minister Fouad
Siniora and his aide, Rola Noureddine, the Ambassador
conveyed to Siniora that the U.S. sought to find a way to
bring about an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hamas
that was fully respected, permanent, and sustainable. The
U.S. hoped that the Arab League statement to be drafted today
in Cairo would include mention of a return to the 2005
Agreement on Movement and Access, which would address the
issue of humanitarian access to Gaza, and a reference to
ending the illegal smuggling in Gaza. Ambassador also
highlighted U.S. plans to contribute $85 million to the UN
Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near
East (UNRWA) for humanitarian assistance. Siniora commented
that the GOL was also supportive of an immediate ceasefire
and argued that a solution needed to be agreed quickly
because the humanitarian situation in Gaza was growing worse
every day. The opening of points of entry and the
restoration of law and order were also important, he added.
He noted that he had spoken with the Secretary over the
previous weekend, and also held telephone conversations with
several European foreign ministers, including, the British,
French, Italian, and Spanish FMs, as well as FM Javier Solana
of the European Union.


4. (C) Ambassador raised concerns about how Hizballah might
act during the Gaza operation, emphasizing that Hizballah
must be dissuaded or prevented from doing anything that would
lead to a deterioration of the situation in the south.
Siniora reported that he and President Sleiman were in daily
contact with Hizballah's senior officials, warning them that
a conflict in south Lebanon was not what the Lebanese people
needed or wanted. Siniora said these overtures to Hizballah
were "received well." He and Sleiman also maintained regular
contact with Speaker Nabih Berri on the need to keep the
south calm. (Note: Berri, the highest Shia official in the
GOL and Amal party leader, has a vested interested in keeping

BEIRUT 00001808 002 OF 003


the south calm at present because he plans to host a meeting
of the Arab Inter-parliamentary Union in Tyre in the coming
days. End note.) Siniora noted that the GOL had acted
proactively from the beginning of the crisis in Gaza to
"respond to the mood of the people."


5. (C) The Ambassador praised the GOL's outreach efforts to
maintain calm and stability in Lebanon in response to the
situation in Gaza as well as the work of the ISF and LAF in
controlling demonstrations. However, she asked Siniora about
the recent discovery of eight Katyusha rockets in the
southern Naquora region by a Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF)
patrol. Siniora said the LAF investigation into the source
of the rockets was ongoing. He said it was not clear if
Hizballah or elements from the Ain el Hilweh Palestinian
camps were involved. In either case, he said, it was
important for the GOL to continue its outreach efforts.


6. (C) The GOL continued to push for Arab and Palestinian
solidarity, he said. Siniora called recent "barking" among
the Arab countries and Egypt unhelpful. Although an
emergency meeting of Arab League foreign ministers was
scheduled in Cairo for the same day, Siniora revealed the
Arab League's member states did not yet have a quorum for a
summit of heads of state, to be held in Doha possibly on
Friday, January 2. Lebanon was only the tenth country to
support the meeting out of a required 15-member quorum, he
said. He added that both Egypt and Saudi Arabia were
undecided. Siniora said the mood in Lebanon's Palestinian
refugee camps was full of anger and helplessness and could be
dangerous if solidarity was not maintained.


7. (C) (Note: In a subsequent conversation December 31 with
Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, the Ambassador noted Jumblatt's
comments to the press the day before, ruling out "the
possibility of an Israeli confrontation with Lebanon (as a
result of the Gaza confrontation)." It was important for
Lebanese political leaders to reinforce the need to prevent
Hizballah from taking any action that could unravel the
situation in the south, she said. Jumblatt agreed, noting
that he had made these statements to both local and Iranian
media. He also criticized Hizballah Secretary General Hassan
Nasrallah's remarks attacking Egypt and other Arab states.
It was necessary for the various Palestinian factions to
unite to confront the situation in Gaza, Jumblatt added. End
Note.)

"IRANIAN FINGERS" EVERYWHERE
--------------


8. (C) Turning to the situation in Gaza, Siniora said he
believed it was impossible to "exclude Iranian fingers" from
all that has happened. Whatever the "short-sightedness or
misbehavior of the Israelis," Hamas was "completely in the
hands of the Iranians," he surmised. The Iranians, he
continued, had painted many of the region's actors into their
respective corners. He blamed Iran for forcing Hamas to show
its strength; forcing the Israelis to also show their
strength in the run-up to their elections in February and as
a result of their defeat in 2006; and "striking out" against
the Egyptians and the Saudis. Siniora also believed Iran,
through Hamas, was sending a message to Syria in response to
its indirect talks with Israel.

PM SUPPORTIVE OF ARAB-INTERNATIONAL FORCE
--------------


9. (C) Siniora said he favored the idea of creating an Arab
or international force to restore law and order in the Gaza
Strip. The idea of an Arab force would be worth exploring,
Siniora said, if the participating countries were viewed as
non-partisan. Siniora suggested that soldiers from Morocco,
Mauritania, or Tunisia would be acceptable, and potentially,
regiments could be on the ground within a week or two. If
the force were expanded to include other countries, Siniora
believed Turkey, Bangladesh, and Indonesia could possibly
contribute troops.

PM UNAWARE OF FUNDING ISSUE FOR M-60s

BEIRUT 00001808 003 OF 003


--------------


10. (C) Separately, when the Ambassador raised concerns about
securing the additional $98 million in funding to complete
the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Lebanon and
Jordan for the third party transfer of U.S. M-60 tanks,
Siniora professed to be unaware of the issue. The Ambassador
passed the PM a copy of the draft for his reference and
study. (Note: DefMin Murr had told Ambassador last week that
he had briefed the PM on the need for GOL funding of $98
million for the remaining 56 M-60 tanks. End note.)

COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) Siniora closed the meeting by wishing the Ambassador
a "Happy New Year," but continued that 2008 was not an
auspicious year. "Come to think of it," he said, "nor was
2007, nor 2006, nor 2005." Although Siniora did not make a
prediction for 2009, it was obvious he believed the beginning
of 2009 would be as stressful and tense for the GOL as in
years past. The positive news, however, is that he and
President Sleiman tell us they are trying to take a proactive
stance to put Hizballah on notice regarding its activities in
the South. From Siniora's discussion of the Katyushas, we
believe the GOL is seeking to limit any wayward Palestinian
activities (or Hizballah actions masquerading as such) in
South Lebanon, as well. End comment.

SISON