LEBANON: WITH DAS HALE, UNSCOL SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001782

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS IS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: WITH DAS HALE, UNSCOL SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC
ON GHAJAR PROGRESS

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Michael Williams
relayed to visiting NEA DAS David Hale that ultimately, the
GOL was looking for a "clean withdrawal" by Israel from
Ghajar with no future Israeli involvement of any kind.
Williams reported that the Syrians seemed "serious" about
negotiations with Israel. On Hizballah, Williams relayed
that Hizballah officials were confident regarding their
prospects in the spring 2009 parliamentary elections, and
that their alliance with their Christian partner, Free
Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, remained firm, while
their alliance with their Shia partner, Speaker Nabih Berri
and his Amal Movement, was slightly less solid. Williams
speculated that there may be an understanding between
Hizballah and majority leader Saad Hariri that he become the
next PM, regardless of whether March 14 retained the
parliamentary majority. End summary.

SINIORA IN BETTER SPIRITS
REGARDING GHAJAR PROCESS
--------------


2. (C) Visiting DAS David Hale and the Ambassador,
accompanied by Lebanon Desk Officer Matt Irwin and PolOff,
met with UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL) Michael
Williams and UN PolOff Salvatore Pedulla at the UNSCOL
headquarters on December 19. Williams reported that he had
met PM Fouad Siniora earlier in the day, and that he found
the PM in a good mood, despite Siniora's frustration with the
Israeli "non-response" to UNIFIL's Ghajar proposal. Williams
said that Siniora seems to have reconciled himself with the
notion that withdrawal from Ghajar was "a process."


3. (C) Hale relayed his recent visit to Israel, noting
Israeli readiness to reach an agreement on Ghajar. After
laying out points the Israelis were interested in pursuing
with respect to an agreement (one, acknowledgment by the
international community of Israeli withdrawal; two, agreement
for future consultations with the Israelis when UNIFIL's
deployment changed, and; three, a political arrangement
signed by Israel and Lebanon regarding Israeli withdrawal),
Williams suggested that the U.S. inform Siniora about the
perceived Israeli receptivity.


4. (C) Williams, noting that he would travel to Israel
December 22-23, assessed that the Lebanese would likely agree
to international acknowledgment and some sort of political
arrangement (but not a "formal agreement"),but that it would
be difficult to secure agreement on Israel's request for
future consultations once UNIFIL decided to pull back.
Williams stressed that the GOL wants a "clean withdrawal" and
"no further Israeli involvement."

SYRIANS KEEN ON
SYRIAN-ISRAELI TRACK
--------------


5. (C) Williams recounted that during his November 6 trip to
Syria, Syrian FM Walid Moallem seemed "serious" about
negotiations with Israel, believing that only a few open
items remained. If these issues were resolved, Williams
said, the Syrians expressed their readiness to begin direct
talks. Williams noted that Syrian VP Farouk al-Sharaa
expressed a nervousness that Israeli PM Ehud Olmert would be
unable to "deliver." According to Williams, both Syrian
leaders were intensely interested in the U.S. presidential
elections.

HIZBALLAH "AGITATED" BY
ISRAELI OVERFLIGHTS
--------------


6. (C) Having recently met with Hizballah officials, Williams
relayed that Hizballah seems "reasonably content" these days.
However, it remained "very agitated" by Israeli overflights.

BEIRUT 00001782 002 OF 002


Williams quoted Hizballah officials as saying their patience
was limited and they would be forced to take action if the
overflights continued, a threat which Williams believed was
merely a "bluff." Williams said he warned Hizballah against
taking action because the consequences would be significant.

HIZBALLAH "CONFIDENT"
GOING INTO ELECTIONS
--------------


7. (C) Williams did not believe Hizballah would take any
aggressive action against Israel prior to the spring 2009
parliamentary elections, adding that Hizballah was fairly
confident regarding its anticipated electoral gains.
Williams assessed that Hizballah's alliance seemed to be
stronger with Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun than
with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. (Comment: We have also
been hearing that Hizballah's relations with its Christian
partner currently is better than with its Shia partner. End
comment.)

SAAD HARIRI SECURING THE PM
POSITION VIA HIZBALLAH?
--------------


8. (C) When the Ambassador inquired as to Williams'
assessment of why majority leader Saad Hariri continued to
meet with Hizballah officials after his October meeting with
Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah, Williams speculated that
there is a tacit understanding on maintaining security
between the Sunni and Shia, as well as an understanding on
how the votes will be divided between the Sunni and Shia
candidates. Williams also suggested that there could be an
understanding that Hariri would become the next PM,
regardless of whether March 14 remained the parliamentary
majority. (Note: This tracks with what we have been
hearing. End note.)


9. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this cable.

SISON