LEBANON: TASHNAQ STILL SNUBBED BY HARIRI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001781

C O R R E C T E D COPY (TEXT THROUGHOUT)

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: TASHNAQ STILL SNUBBED BY HARIRI

REF: BEIRUT 1722

BEIRUT 00001781 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) With visiting NEA DAS David Hale, Armenian Tashnaq SYG
Hovig Mekhitirian noted his satisfaction with the new
electoral law, laid out in the Doha agreement, because it
allows the Armenians to vote for Armenian deputies (and not
have their votes diluted by pro-March 14 Sunni voters),and it
guarantees that one Armenian candidate will be from Tashnaq.
Remarking that he hoped Tashnaq would resume its tradition of
allying with the president, Mekhitirian said that Tashnaq's
support for independent MP Michel Murr was firm. He added
that while Tashnaq is "not March 8," it could not support
March 14 because of its lack of a relationship with majority
leader Saad Hariri. Mekhitirian also said that he hoped for
a united Armenian community, noting that the three Armenian
parties (the other two being allied with Hariri's Future
Movement) meet regularly. End summary.

NEW ELECTORAL LAW
BENEFITS TASHNAQ
--------------


2. (C) Visiting NEA DAS David Hale and the Ambassador,
accompanied by NEA/ELA Lebanon Desk Officer Matt Irwin and
PolOff, met the Armenian Tashnaq SYG Hovig Mekhitirian,
Tashnaq MP Hagop Pakradonian, and a third Tashnaq member at
their headquarters in Bourj Hammoud on December 19. Hale
stressed that the spring 2009 parliamentary elections are of
critical importance, and that the U.S. wants to see a free
and transparent electoral process.


3. (C) Agreeing, Mekhitirian expressed his desire that the
elections occur on time. He noted his deep satisfaction with
Interior Minister Ziad Baroud. Mekhitirian explained that
the changes to the electoral law, agreed upon in Doha,
benefit Tashnaq by allocating one Armenian seat to the
opposition (Tashnaq) and one for the March 14 alliance for
the Beirut second district. (Note: Previously, the Armenian
seats in Beirut were part of Saad Hariri's Future Movement,
because, under the previous districting system,
the Beirut districts were primarily composed of
Sunnis who voted for the Armenian deputies allied with
Future, therein diluting the Armenian votes. With the
new districting, there is an almost equal representation
of Armenian, Shia, and Christian voters. End note.)

TASHNAQ TO ALLY WITH THE PRESIDENT
--------------


4. (C) Criticizing the 2000 electoral law for disadvantaging
the Armenians, Mekhitirian said Tashnaq's goal is to
establish an independent Armenian bloc. He noted that his
party is traditionally allied with the president, stressing
that this means the institution, rather than the individual.
Mekhitirian expressed his hope that Tashnaq once again would
ally with the president.

TASHNAQ "NOT MARCH 8,"
BUT CANNOT SUPPORT MARCH 14
--------------


5. (C) Hale said that the U.S. supports the president and
Lebanon's institutions, including the Lebanese Armed Forces
and the Internal Security Forces, and that the U.S. would
like to see those who support Lebanon's institutions prevail
in the elections. Stating that Tashnaq's biggest problem
with March 14 is its lack of a relationship with Saad Hariri,
Mekhitirian insisted that Tashnaq could not ally with March
14 as long as this tension persisted.


6. (C) "We are not March 8, but we were obliged to ally with
the opposition," he declared. He pointed out that Tashnaq
does not always agree with Free Patriotic Movement leader
Michel Aoun, and gave an example of when Tashnaq refused to
participate in a 2006 strike called by Aoun. According to

BEIRUT 00001781 002.2 OF 002


Mekhitirian, Aoun was becoming increasingly flexible, and has
dropped his presidential aspirations.


7. (C) Remarking that Tashnaq had had an understanding with
Saad Hariri's father, the late PM Rafiq Hariri, Mekhitirian
said that everything changed after he was assassinated. Saad
has since refused to meet indirectly or directly with
Tashnaq, despite multiple Tashnaq attempts to seek such a
meeting, Mekhitirian said. He affirmed that Tashnaq has a
good relationship with independent MP Michel Murr.

ARMENIAN PARTIES
MEET REGULARLY
--------------


8. (C) Assessing that the Armenian community in Lebanon is
faring relatively well despite the economic downturn,
Mekhitirian said that the Armenians strive to remain as one
community. He noted that Tashnaq meets every month with the
other two Armenian political parties in Lebanon, both of
which are allied with Future Movement and represent 15
percent of the Armenian community.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Mekhitirian appeared less flexible regarding Tashnaq's
electoral alliances than we witnessed in a meeting
Pakradonian earlier in the month (reftel). While Pakradonian
indicated that Tashnaq was still "available for courting,"
Mekhitirian demonstrated bitterness towards Hariri. It is
possible he was posturing, with the hope that Hale and the
Ambassador would urge Hariri to meet with Tashnaq, or he
could carry a more hardline stance than Pakradonian.
Nevertheless, other sources suggest that Tashnaq is not
immovable. End comment.


10. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this cable.

SISON