LEBANON: DEFENSE MINISTER SAYS AN AOUN VICTORY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001748

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS RS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: DEFENSE MINISTER SAYS AN AOUN VICTORY
THREATENS PRESIDENT AND SPEAKER

REF: A. BEIRUT 1731

B. BEIRUT 1722

C. BEIRUT 1732

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a December 10 meeting with the Ambassador, Defense
Minister Elias Murr assessed that President Michel Sleiman,
annoyed at the royal treatment Free Patriotic Movement leader
Michel Aoun received during his trip to Syria, feels
threatened by the prospect of a decisive Aoun victory in the
spring 2009 parliamentary elections. Even Aoun's ally
Speaker Nabih Berri feels threatened by an Aoun victory, Murr
relayed, because he thinks Aoun will not support Berri
staying on as Speaker. Murr said Sleiman remains undecided
on whether to form his own parliamentary bloc, while the
Armenian Tashnaq party is committed to allying with Murr's
father, MP Michel Murr, and is not absolutely committed to
Aoun.


2. (C) Defense Minister Murr, who will travel to Russia on
December 14, said he had been told that Russia will only
sell, and not give, weapons to Lebanon, which he considered a
"non-starter." He said Saad Hariri and PM Fouad Siniora were
adamant the GOL would find the funds required to pay for the
M60 tanks. He stressed that his trip to Syria, potentially
in January, will focus only on UN Security Council Resolution

1701. End summary.

SLEIMAN THREATENED
BY AOUN VICTORY...
--------------


3. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff, met Defense
Minister Elias Murr at his home in Rabieh on December 10.
Murr, who had accompanied President Michel Sleiman to Germany
the previous week, provided his insight into Sleiman's
thinking. According to Murr, Sleiman feels threatened by the
prospect of a decisive victory by Free Patriotic Movement
leader Michel Aoun during the spring 2009 parliamentary
elections. Murr said Sleiman believes that a success for
Aoun's bloc would result in a reduction of the president's
role. Sleiman reportedly told Murr, "If Aoun wins, I may as
well pack my bags for the rest of my term."

...AND ANNOYED AT SYRIA
FOR EMPOWERING AOUN
--------------


4. (C) Murr added that Sleiman was still steaming about
Aoun's visit to Damascus the previous week, during which Aoun
appeared to receive presidential treatment. According to
Murr, Sleiman opted not to telephone Syrian President Bashar
Asad for the Eid al-Adha holiday because of his annoyance at
the treatment Aoun received, and quoted Sleiman saying of
Asad "If he wants to deal with Aoun the gangster, let him!"

SLEIMAN STILL UNSURE ABOUT
FORMING PARLIAMENTARY BLOC
--------------


5. (C) On the idea of forming his own parliamentary bloc (Ref
A),Murr reported that Sleiman was still considering this
option, underlining that such a bloc would be allied with
March 14, not March 8. Murr further stressed that Sleiman is
focusing on strengthening the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF),
positioning it as the tool with which to confront Hizballah
on the issue of its arms at the National Dialogue. Murr said
there is no agenda yet for the December 22 National Dialogue
session, but he expected it and all other sessions until the
elections would be uncontroversial.


6. (C) Sleiman "may be a better president than LAF
Commander," Murr said, commending the president's balanced
approach and carefully-crafted decisions. He noted that

BEIRUT 00001748 002 OF 003


Sleiman had requested that Murr represent him at the December
13 ceremony commemorating former MP Gebran Tueini's
assassination, interpreting this move as a symbol of Lebanese
perseverance. (Tueni was assassinated in 2005. Murr survived
a 2005 assassination attempt, which he blames on Syria.)
Murr claimed that Sleiman "cannot stand" the Iranians and is
planning to send his son to the U.S. for advanced medical
training, a demonstration of Sleiman's commitment to
Lebanon's relationship with the U.S.

TASHNAQ FIRMLY ALLIED
WITH MICHEL MURR
--------------


7. (C) Recounting a recent meeting with Armenian Tashnaq SYG
Hovig Mekhitirian, Murr reported that Tashnaq declared to
Asad its allegiance to Murr's father, MP Michel Murr, when
the group visited Damascus December 1 (Ref B). Asad
purportedly did not push Tashnaq to remain allied with Aoun
at Michel Murr's expense, said Murr.

BERRI ALSO THREATENED
BY AOUN VICTORY
--------------


8. (C) Murr noted that Saad Hariri continues to meet with
Amal MP Ali Hassan Khalil, because Speaker Nabih Berri
remains concerned about possible tensions between Sunnis and
Shia. He claimed Berri also dispatched Khalil to meet him to
discuss a compromise on the electoral list for the Metn
district (the Murr family stronghold) to divide the list
between Murr's candidates and Aoun's candidates. Murr said
he declined out of deference to his father, the true
list-maker (Ref C).


9. (C) Murr claimed his father would rather lose than "give
seats to Aoun for free." He interpreted Khalil's visit to
mean that Berri is concerned that a sweeping Aoun victory
might result in Berri losing his job as Speaker, since Aoun
previously said he wanted "anyone but Berri."

RUSSIA WILL ONLY SELL,
NOT GIVE, WEAPONS TO LAF
--------------


10. (C) In advance of his trip to Moscow on December 14, Murr
relayed that he and Saad Hariri had met with Mikhael Dimitri,
head of the Russian Federal Commission for Military and
Technical Cooperation with Foreign States, (responsible for
weapons exports) earlier in the week. Murr said he received
clarification from Dimitri that Russia is unable to donate,
but was willing to sell, tanks, helicopters -- "everything"
to the LAF. In response to Murr's assertion that the GOL
lacked the funds, Dimitri reportedly suggested that the
Saudis provide assistance.


11. (C) Murr interpreted Hariri's role in the meeting as
posturing -- "Saad wants to show the U.S. that Russia could
arm the LAF." Murr stressed, "We won't get a bullet from
Russia during our tenure." He said both Hariri and Siniora
encouraged him to visit Moscow for protocol reasons, even
though the trip will not lead to an arms deal.


12. (C) Murr claimed that Dimitri downplayed Russia's ties to
Syria, saying that while his country had strategic relations
with Syria, they centered on securing a regional
counterbalance to the U.S. and did not run counter to
Russia's support for Lebanon.

GOL "CONFIDENT" IT WILL
SECURE FUNDING FOR M60S
--------------


13. (C) According to Murr, Hariri expressed confidence that
the GOL will come up with a donation from another country to
finance the needed $80 million for the M60 tanks that are
part of the USG assistance package should Saudi financing be
delayed. (Note: We believe the amount is $98 million. End
note.) Murr explained that the delay is due to Saudi Crown

BEIRUT 00001748 003 OF 003


Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz being ill.


14. (C) Once the LAF receives the M60 tanks from Jordan and
the Leopard tanks from Belgium (which Murr expects soon),
Murr said he will have two battalions of new tanks. Murr
added that Lebanon will receive $3 million in donor funding
for arming the Gazelles (a reference to the French Gazelle
helicopters transferred to teh LAF by the UAE).

MURR TO DISCUSS ONLY
UNSCR 1701 IN SYRIA
--------------


15. (C) Murr insisted that when he visits Syria, most likely
in January, he will focus his discussions solely on UN
Security Council Resolution 1701. He expected to present the
agenda for his trip to the cabinet in the beginning of
January in order to avoid the criticism recently lodged
against his GOL collegues who visited Syria. Murr defended
LAF Commader Jean Kahwagi's meeting with President Asad,
xplaining that the meeting was sprung on Kahwagi, who called
Murr from Damascus for advice. Murr was clear about his
discomfort with his own upcoming visit, given that he blames
the Syrians for attempting to kill him.

SISON