LEBANON: BERRI EXPECTS NO SOLID WINNER IN ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001703

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: BERRI EXPECTS NO SOLID WINNER IN ELECTIONS

REF: BEIRUT 1690

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri dispelled rumors that
the postponement of the November 26 parliamentary session was
for political reasons, explaining that the session lacked a
quorum from both the opposition and March 14. He expressed
pride that his Amal Movement won a number of seats in the
student council elections at the American University of
Beirut and Saint Joseph University. Berri predicted a narrow
margin of victory for whichever coalition won the 2009
parliamentary elections, believing that compromises needed to
be made when forming the electoral lists, a process that he
said he would launch "at the last minute." It would be
"criminal" to delay the parliamentary elections, he thinks.
He was not optimistic that the next session of the National
Dialogue would make significant progress. Berri relayed that
the UAE foreign minister warned him November 27 Lebanon could
not expect much funding from the Emirates due to the
financial crisis. End summary.

PARLIAMENT DELAYED DUE TO
QUORUM, NOT POLITICAL, ISSUES
--------------


2. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff, met with
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and his advisor, Ali Hamdan,
on November 28 at Ain el-Tineh. Dispelling the rumor that
the postponement of the November 26 parliament session
occurred because March 14 deputies were intentionally absent
to protest a proposed wage increase, Berri said that indeed
parliament lacked the necessary quorum, but this was because
deputies from all blocs were unable to attend the afternoon
session. He further said that both the opposition and March
14 had supported the wage increase, but that PM Fouad Siniora
had opposed the move for budgetary reasons.

AMAL DOING WELL IN
UNIVERSITY ELECTIONS
--------------


3. (C) Berri relayed that his Amal Movement party is
performing well in university student council elections
(reftel),saying that 21 of the 24 Amal candidates won during
the November 26 election at the American University of
Beirut. He noted with pride that one Amal candidate was
elected in the Saint Joseph University elections, explaining
that while Amal always wins at Lebanon's "Arab" universities,
it typically has been less successful at American/Christian
universities such as AUB or Saint Joseph. The Beirut Bar
Association was another election victory, he claimed, with
one Amal candidate elected as an alternate member. Berri
discounted these elections as predictors for the results of
the 2009 parliamentary elections, but did say that their
outcomes affect voters psychologically.

PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
TO CLOSE GAP BETWEEN
MAJORITY AND OPPOSITION
--------------


4. (C) Anticipating the parliamentary elections will lead to
a narrow margin of victory for one side (without saying
which),Berri said it would be necessary to make compromises
when forming electoral lists, and in the elections'
aftermath. If March 8 and its allies are victorious, he
explained, they would lack a strong Sunni figure on their
side, and would require such a Sunni voice in order to best
represent the people. (Note: The example of Education
Minister and MP Bahiya Hariri, a Sunni from Sidon,
illustrates Berri's point. Over the years, Bahiya Hariri --
Saad's aunt -- has alternated between running on Berri's list
and running independently. It is not clear yet which list
she will run on in 2009. End note.)


BEIRUT 00001703 002 OF 003


WILL FORM LISTS AT
"LAST POSSIBLE MINUTE"
--------------


5. (C) Berri remarked that he preferred to decide the
electoral lists in the final three days before the elections,
but that with the new electoral law, the lists must be
determined 60 days prior to the elections. (Note:
Previously, the candidates' nominations were submitted 60
days out, but the lists were formed at the last minute. End
note.) He said that he bases his decisions on the
composition of his opponents' lists. His Amal party is most
focused on the West Bekaa, particularly Zahle, and Baabda,
Berri stated.

INTRA-OPPOSITION COMPETITION
FOR DEPUTY SEATS?
--------------


6. (C) Berri anticipated that the election would be very
competitive for Amal in Sidon, but stated his confidence that
in Jezzine, he will "not permit anyone to interfere,"
including Michel Aoun and Hizballah. Current Amal MP Samir
Azar, who is a Maronite from Jezzine, was very strong among
the Christians in his district, Berri submitted, and would
not face competition from Free Patriotic Movement leader
Michel Aoun. Berri's ally. However, Berri added, Azar needed
Berri to secure the Shia votes. (Comment: Berri's statement
suggests intra-opposition competition exists when forming
electoral lists. End comment.)


7. (C) Berri stated his preference for an electoral law based
on proportional representation, with all of Lebanon as one
single district, and including Lebanese expatriate votes. He
explained the diaspora votes are important because "Lebanese
are the most intelligent people -- doctors, lawyers,
successful businessmen -- but when they enter Lebanon, all
Lebanese become jackasses."

PRESIDENT SHOULD
NOT FORM OWN BLOC
--------------


8. (C) Berri voiced his support for the concept of a
president's parliamentary bloc, but one that is formed on its
own, rather than at President Sleiman's behest. He relayed
that he had urged Sleiman personally to remain uninvolved,
like a neutral "judge." Berri added that the President
currently enjoys the support of the Amal and Hizballah
deputies, but if he actively forms his own bloc, he will lose
this support.

"CRIMINAL" TO
DELAY ELECTIONS
--------------


9. (C) "It would be a crime to delay the elections," was
Berri's retort to media reports hinting at a delay. He
wondered if some political figures linked progress on the
Special Tribunal, commencing shortly before the parliamentary
elections, to a potential obstruction of the elections.

LOW EXPECTATIONS FOR
NEXT NATIONAL DIALOGUE
--------------


10. (C) In addition to expressing his own lack of optimism
for results from the third National Dialogue session of the
year, scheduled for December 22, Berri claimed that majority
leader Saad Hariri did not expect the national defense
strategy would be formulated before the parliamentary
elections. Berri noted that Amal had its own national
defense strategy, but preferred to wait until it had seen the
other proposals before revealing its plan. Commenting on
Aoun's plan, Berri said he had expected that "it would have
been worse."

GULF HIT BY FINANCIAL CRISIS;
LESS AID EXPECTED FOR LEBANON
--------------

BEIRUT 00001703 003 OF 003




11. (C) Berri, who had met with visiting UAE Foreign Minister
Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayid al Nahyan the previous day,
reported that the Gulf region is suffering from the
international financial crisis. According to Berri, the UAE
FM bluntly said that Lebanon can no longer count on money
from the UAE as it could before the crisis. Finding the
silver lining to the global financial situation, Berri said
much of the Arab dollars have already started flowing into
Lebanese banks, which the Arabs perceive to be more stable in
the crisis.

SISON