LEBANON: INDEPENDENT CHRISTIANS NEED SPACE TO RUN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001679

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: INDEPENDENT CHRISTIANS NEED SPACE TO RUN
AS NON-ALLIED CANDIDATES

REF: BEIRUT 1638

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a November 21 dinner with the Ambassador and
visiting NEA/ELA Office Director Nicole Shampaine, former MP
Saleh Honein, businessman Neemat Frem, Dr. Paul Charbel, and
Richard Jreissati, all Christians considering running as
independent candidates in contested districts during the
spring 2009 parliamentary elections, complained that there
was no space for truly independent candidates. They
expressed their interest in remaining separate from the March
14 alliance, while stressing that they shared March 14
principles, naming in particular the importance of the
Special Tribunal and of a unified Lebanon. The four argued
that Christian votes could be won by delivering a clear
message on a key issue, such as fighting corruption or
expanding presidential powers, to undecided Christian voters
in swing districts. They highlighted the Armenian Tashnaq as
a pivotal group in the elections. End summary.

NO SPACE FOR INDEPENDENTS
--------------


2. (C) The Ambassador invited to dinner several "independent"
Christians who are considering running for parliament in the
spring 2009 elections. The guests included former MP Saleh
Honein, from Baabda; industrialist Neemat Frem, from Ksarwan;
and Dr. Paul Charbel and Richard Jreissati, both from Zahle.
Honein, who is certain he will run as an independent
candidate in Baabda (but is close to Druze leader Walid
Jumblatt),faulted the new electoral law and Lebanon's
traditional way of conducting elections for not allowing
space for independents to run. (Note: Due to the agreements
made on districting in May in Doha, and the fact that
individual candidates must be part a larger ballot list,
there is little room for independent candidates. Candidates
can run on unaffiliated lists and leave blank slots where
there are no candidates. However, they are more likely to
win votes when their names are added to lists with known,
party-affiliated candidates. End note.)


3. (C) While appearing comfortable with his chances in
Baabda, Honein assessed that an independent Christian was
unlikely to win in Zahle. Charbel, who may run depending on
signals he perceives from President Michel Sleiman, predicted
that Tourism Minister Elie Marouni, who plans to run as a
Kataeb candidate, would lose, meaning a loss for March 14 in
that crucial district. Jreissati said he was in a similar
situation.

BOTH MARCH 8 AND MARCH 14 APPEAL TO "INDEPENDENTS"
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Frem explained that both March 8 and March 14 address
issues important to independents: the March 8 alliance
focuses on "Christian malaise," while March 14 projects a
"Lebanon first" attitude. Honein determined that Aoun is no
longer the "Christian defender" as he once promoted himself.
Frem stressed repeatedly that he has not yet decided whether
he would run in the hotly-contested Ksarwan district,


5. (C) Charbel asserted that, "Everyone is chasing after the
Christian independents, but no one really wants them!"
Honein interjected that these independents should not join
the March 14 coalition, but the coalition could find comfort
that the independents will vote in step with March 14 on
important issues. Honein suggested that the U.S. stress the
importance of independent candidates to March 14 members and
urge them to give independent candidates space to run.

WIN CHRISTIAN VOTES BY
DELIVERING A CLEAR MESSAGE
--------------


BEIRUT 00001679 002 OF 002



6. (C) Honein said that Hizballah has reached its peak
popularity, and if it emerges victorious in the 2009
elections, it will have cemented its power and will coast
through future elections. Frem predicted that March 14's
popularity would suffer if the perceived Salafist threat
increased in the period before the elections. Movement on
the Special Tribunal would boost March 14 support, Frem
emphasized.


7. (C) Frem said March 14 and the Christians could control
the votes by delivering a clear message on a key issue to the
Christians. Charbel said the independent Christian
candidates need to promise something to the Christian voters,
and then deliver on it when elected. Frem countered that the
changes should be enacted ahead of the elections in order to
win the votes. Fighting corruption now, especially if March
14 was involved, would draw votes.


8. (C) Frem suggested expanding presidential powers, such as
extending the length of time allotted to the president to
respond to decrees (currently15 days compared to no time
limit imposed on theministers),or granting the president
the right to dissolve the parliament (which he held prior to
the Taif agreement). (Note: These are proposals Sleiman
himself has advocated. End note.) Honein warned that
Hizballah had been discussing amending the presidential
powers and therefore, if this were indeed accomplished,
Hizballah would attempt to take credit.

COURT THE TASHNAQ
--------------


9. (C) Honein noted that the independent Christians should
work with the Armenian Tashnaq with respect to the elections.
He added that the Murrs (MP Michel Murr and his son, Defense
Minister Elias Murr),who have previously allied with the
Tashnaq in the Metn district, are "not necessarily March 14."
He explained that while the Murrs speak the March 14
rhetoric, they may vote differently once elected.

OTHER ELECTION PREDICTIONS
--------------


10. (C) Given that the Syrians feel threatened by Hizballah's
power in Lebanon, Frem speculated, they may create
disturbances within Hizballah and between Aoun and Sleiman.
Jreissati relayed that Presidential Advisor Nazem Khoury was
intending to resign his position in order to run as a
candidate. He further reported that he heard Khoury inquired
of Marada party leader Suleiman Franjieh whether Aoun would
put Khoury on his list in Jbeil.


11. (C) Comment: Although President Sleiman is likely to
continue resisting forming his own parliamentary bloc,
preferring to remain above legislative politics, Christian
independents could play a useful role drawing support away
from the March 8 opposition in the election and in enhancing
the presidency in promoting moderate stances in the
parliament. We predict the situation on alliances and
candidate selection will remain fluid, however, for several
more months -- perhaps as late as April if the vote is set
for June, as many believe. End comment.

SISON