LEBANON: UNSCOL BEMOANS SLOW PROGRESS ON 1701,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001641

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER/GERMAIN
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: UNSCOL BEMOANS SLOW PROGRESS ON 1701,
DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS

REF: A. BEIRUT 01639

B. BEIRUT 01638

C. BEIRUT 01637

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL) Michael
Williams expressed concern on November 15 that the Lebanese
might be slowing on establishing diplomatic ties with Syria.
He also expressed concern regarding progress on UNSCR 1701.
Williams thought it possible that emerging GOL hesitation
regarding diplomatic ties with Syria might be behind the
vehement March 14 criticism of Interior Minister Ziad
Baroud's trip to Damascus. Williams planned to ask UNSYG Ban
Ki-Moon to place telephone calls to both the Syrian and
Lebanese sides to push progress on diplomatic ties. Williams
will also discuss with Ban a visit to Lebanon, which might
occur at the earliest in January 2009.


2. (C) Like us, Williams is hearing more about a possible
role for independents in the spring 2009 parliamentary
elections. Williams is exploring establishing a code of
conduct for the parliamentary elections to complement
international election observation, which he fears Lebanese
see as the "be all, end all" of election standards.
End Summary.

LEBANESE-SYRIAN RELATIONS, BORDER CONTROL
--------------


3. (C) UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Michael Williams
told Ambassador on November 15 that he thought March 14
rancor following Interior Minister Ziad Baroud's trip to
Damascus could indicate deeper hesitation among "elements" of
the coalition regarding the establishment of diplomatic ties
with Syria. Williams, accompanied by UNSCOL Poloffs
Salvatore Pedulla and Rami Shehadeh, stressed that Baroud was
an "absolutely key" figure in the GOL. Williams said Baroud,
whom he had visited November 14, a few hours after the
Ambassador's call on the Minister (ref A),seemed "bruised"
by recent events. According to Williams, Siniora had
encouraged his cabinet ministers to coordinate with their
counterparts in Damascus, and several had made official trips
to Syria. For example, Shehadeh said Minister of
Administrative Reform Ibrahim Shamseddine had made an
official trip to Damascus. (Note: This is the first we have
heard of an official visit by Shamseddine to Damascus. End
Note.) However, Siniora, said Williams, had emphasized that
the GOL needs to see "behavior change" before any concrete
steps are taken regarding Syria.


4. (C) Williams said the Lebanese seem to be dragging their
feet regarding diplomatic ties with Syria, possibly because
of increased international acceptance of the Syrian regime.
British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, citing increased
Syrian action on curbing foreign fighter flows and improved
counter-terrorism coordination, will visit Syria (and
Lebanon) this week, said Williams. French Prime Minister
Francois Fillon will visit Lebanon this week; Williams had
not heard if he would travel to Syria. Williams reported
that he plans to ask UNSYG Ban Ki-Moon to make telephone
calls to both Lebanon and Syria to deliver a message on the
importance of establishing diplomatic relations with an
exchange of Ambassadors. Williams did not believe the rumor
that Syria had nixed the names of four individuals proposed
by the GOL as the new envoy to Damascus. In his meeting with
Siniora, Williams cautioned that political transitions in the
U.S. and elsewhere made even more important the appearance of
Lebanese willingness to cooperate with its neighbors.


5. (C) Note: In a separate meeting, March 14 SYG Fares Souaid
told us March 14 had not discouraged Baroud from traveling to
Syria because this would make it appear that Lebanon was to
blame for any hesitancy in establishing diplomatic relations.
However, March 14 was adamant that diplomatic relations be
established before any new bilateral committees were formed.

BEIRUT 00001641 002 OF 002


Also, on November 16, the Lebanese Cabinet voted to
establish a follow-up committee to consider ways of
activating cooperation between the Lebanese and Syrian
Interior Ministries to combat terrorism and improve border
control. End Note.


6. (C) Williams expressed concern on lack of progress on
Lebanese requirements for the UNSCR 1701, given the need for
UNSCOL to deliver the next 1701 report November 25 in New
York. Williams encouraged progress on border security in his
November 14 meeting with the Prime Minister, but he worried
that little would happen before spring parliamentary
elections. Williams also discussed the possibility of a
visit to Lebanon by UNSYG Ban to encourage Lebanese progress
on UN resolutions. He said timing of the trip is still being
discussed, but the earliest Ban would likely arrive would be
January 2009.

GHAJAR
--------------


7. (C) Williams indicated he expected that no progress would
be made on Ghajar before the November 22 deadline; Israel has
not yet responded to the UNIFIL proposal. He said UNIFIL
Commander Claudio Graziano's visit to Tel Aviv had November 8
gained little traction on the issue and noted that Prime
Minister Siniora had seemed "subdued" that the Israelis would
not withdraw. Echoing what he had told us earlier, Siniora
told Williams Lebanon would not offer anything more on Ghajar.

PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
--------------


8. (C) On whether potential independent candidates might be
overtly backed by President Sleiman, Williams agreed with the
Ambassador that Sleiman would likely avoid outward political
support of an independent bloc. Williams noted that in a
November 14 meeting, Minister of State Nassib Lahoud, Lahoud
had argued that three "good guys" were better than ten "bad"
candidates -- arguing that such a small number of
independents might still make a difference. Discussing
Christian votes, Williams described divisions among Maronites
as "as sharp as ever" but noted Maronite Patriarch Sfeir,
arguably the only unifying figure among Lebanese Christians,
seemed "as cautious as ever."



9. (C) Williams expressed concern about the Lebanese view an
election observer mission as a "be all, end all" to ensure
international election standards. He is considering
proposing a code of conduct as part of a UN election
assistance package to inform Lebanese players what is
necessary on their end. Williams, however, mentioned some
sensitivities to the project on the Lebanese side and also
thought new legislation might be required. Williams has
raised the proposal with Minister Baroud.

SISON