LEBANON: UNSCOL SEES MINIMAL PROGRESS ON GHAJAR;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001613

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER/GERMAIN
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS SY IS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: UNSCOL SEES MINIMAL PROGRESS ON GHAJAR;
OPTIMISM ON ISRAELI-SYRIAN TRACK

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Briefing the Ambassador on his recent trips to Israel
and Syria, UN Special Coordinator Michael Williams relayed
that Israel will neither accept nor reject UNIFIL's proposal
for withdrawal from Ghajar by the November 22 deadline.
Williams relayed that Israeli PM Ehud Olmert is focusing all
of his energy on the Turkish-led indirect negotiations with
Syria, hoping for a deal before a new Israeli government is
in place, sometime after its February election. Likewise,
Williams shared, Syrian FM Walid Moallem is "equally
interested" in a deal with Israel, though Syrian VP Farouk
al-Sharaa is reportedly nervous about whether outgoing PM
Olmert can deliver.


2. (C) Williams said the Syrians deny possessing any maps on
Sheba'a Farms, and asserted their belief that Sheba'a belongs
to Lebanon. Williams expressed concern that Lebanon be left
in the cold if talks move forward between Israel and Syria,
with no Lebanese involvement, and agreed to raise the issue
with President Michel Sleiman's office. Moallem believes
Lebanon and Syria will exchange ambassadors by year's end.
Williams reported that the Israelis are looking into
providing cluster bomb strike data requested by Lebanon,
while complaining that Lebanon violates UN Security Council
Resolution 1701 with arms smuggling. End summary.

ISRAEL WILL NEITHER REJECT NOR
ACCEPT UNIFIL'S GHAJAR PROPOSAL
--------------


3. (C) On November 7, UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon
Michael Williams briefed the Ambassador and DCM on his trips
earlier in the week to Israel and Syria. UN PolOff Salvatore
Pedulla and PolOff also attended the meeting at the Embassy.
Williams, who visited Tel Aviv and Jerusalem on November 3-4,
said that Israel Defense Forces (IDF) General Hayman
indicated that Israel would neither accept nor reject
UNIFIL's proposal for withdrawal from Ghajar by the November
22 deadline. Williams said that he anticipated receiving a
response letter from Israel that, in line with this neutral
stance, would raise a series of technical, security-related
questions. UNIFIL Commander Claudio Graziano was planning to
travel to Tel Aviv November 9 to address Israeli concerns.


4. (C) Williams cautioned that he learned during his visit
that some Israeli officials are currently debating whether
the Olmert government would have the proper authority to make
a decision to withdraw, given that the GOI is in transition.
Williams added that he had met PM Fouad Siniora on November 5
and understood that the PM was still "patiently waiting" for
an Israeli response. Siniora's position seemed to be that
Lebanon would wait forever if Graziano's proposal were
rejected by the Israelis, said Williams. (Comment: This
tracked with the Ambassador's own conversation with Siniora
the previous week. End comment.)


5. (C) Williams noted that a contact in Israeli PM Ehud
Olmert's office had suggested it would be easy to relocate
the residents from Ghajar because they were few in number.
Williams shared that he had received a letter sent by "the
residents of Ghajar" in which they asserted their Syrian
identity and inquired why the Syrian government had not been
included in discussions on Ghajar. The Ghajar residents had
complained in the letter that they had not been consulted on
the future of Ghajar and expressed a concern about any
resolution dividing where they live. Williams said that both
he and Graziano had said they were willing to meet with the
residents.


6. (C) Williams noted that a weakness of Graziano's approach
to the Ghajar proposal had been keeping it on a strictly
military-military track. This was one drawback resulting
from the long gap between his predecessor Geir Pedersen and
himself, Williams commented.


7. (C) Noting that Graziano was "overly optimistic," Williams

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remarked that, "Israel often sees Lebanon the same way as
Syria -- a failed state." He added that making the argument
to Israelis on empowering the moderates "always falls on deaf
ears."

OLMERT INTENT ON
SYRIAN-ISRAELI TRACK
--------------


8. (C) Noting the Secretary's recent comments about
Annapolis, Williams said that Olmert no longer had anything
left but the Turkish-led indirect negotiations with Syria as
possible accomplishments before he departs his post.
Therefore, he stated, Olmert was "going all out" on this
track. One of Olmert's staff told Williams that "not a day
goes by that he doesn't mention it three or four times."
Some Israeli interlocutors raised the question as to whether
Olmert had the authority to move forward on a deal with
Syria. Williams assessed that the current Israeli government
is "fractious" and it could take "well beyond" the February
election before a new government is in place.

MOALLEM EQUALLY KEEN ON
SYRIAN-ISRAELI TRACK
--------------


9. (C) Moving from Israel to Syria, Williams reported that
during his November 6 trip to Damascus, Syrian FM Walid
Moallem was "equally interested" in negotiations with Israel,
believing that a fifth round of indirect talks will be held
before year's end to discuss "technical issues." According
to Williams, Moallem said he was open to direct talks with
Israel if the fifth and sixth rounds of indirect negotiations
go well, and hoped for a deal with Israel before the GOI's
February elections. Moallem was quoted by Williams as saying
that he was willing to make a deal with Olmert.


10. (C) At the same time, Williams relayed, Syrian VP Farouk
al-Sharaa expressed nervousness that Olmert would be unable
to "deliver." Sharaa inquired repeatedly whether Williams
believed Olmert could deliver out of concern for Syria
"appearing nave" in front of "Syria's public." Williams
said that the Syrians, especially Moallem, spent much time
querying him on what he thought President-elect Obama's views
would be on these matters. Williams also met with Syrian MFA
Vice FM Faisal Miqdad while in Damascus.

SYRIA DOES NOT HAVE SHEBA'A MAPS;
SHEBA'A BELONGS TO LEBANON
--------------


11. (C) According to Williams, Moallem insisted that Syria no
longer possesses historical files about Sheba'a Farms,
including maps, because "they were all shipped to Egypt"
during the brief life of the United Arab Republic formed by
Syria and Egypt in 1958. Nevertheless, Williams said, the
Syrians are not interested in discussing Sheba'a with the
Lebanese because they believe Sheba'a is Lebanese territory.
Williams relayed that Moallem had said, "We will resolve
Sheba'a within six hours of signing a peace treaty with
Israel." Williams remarked on the irony that Israel and
Syria shared the same position on Sheba'a ownership, but were
equally unwilling to give anything to Lebanon in the meantime.

LEBANON COULD BE LEFT IN THE COLD
--------------


12. (C) Acknowledging that Siniora has been unreceptive to
the idea of talks with Israel, Williams emphasized that
Lebanon could be left behind if talks move forward between
Syria and Israel. Williams said that Israel would like to
see Lebanon involved in negotiations. In his November 5
meeting with Williams, Siniora reportedly repeated his
frequent assertion that Lebanon will be the "last nation" in
the region to make a peace agreement with Israel.

CHANGE IN SYRIAN
RHETORIC ON LEBANON
--------------


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13. (C) Williams noted that Moallem had remarked on the
changed rhetoric used by the SARG when discussing Lebanon --
previously, SARG officials spoke of the "situation in
Lebanon; conversely, today, Moallem says that the focus is on
relations with Lebanon. Moallem believes the two countries
would exchange ambassadors by year's end.

ISRAELI POSITION ON
CLUSTER BOMBS, OVERFLIGHTS
--------------


14. (C) In response to Siniora's letter to the UN on Israel's
use of cluster bombs during the July 2006 war, Williams
relayed that the IDF is looking once more at providing the
strike data and would possibly respond to the letter.
However, he caveated, it seemed there were intelligence
implications, which could deter the Israelis from providing
data.


15. (C) On Israeli overflights, Williams said that the
Israelis take issue with how the UN counts the flights.
Williams said he believed the overflights were partly
intended to gather intelligence, and partly aimed at
intimidating Hizballah. He added that he hears complaints
from Israeli officials that arms smuggling into Lebanon is in
violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, but these
violations are neither documented nor in the UN's purview.
SISON