LEBANON: JUMBLATT WITH A/S HOOK: JUSTICE AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001563

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER/GERMAIN
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: JUMBLATT WITH A/S HOOK: JUSTICE AND
STABILITY IMPORTANT TRIBUNAL OUTCOMES

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, in an October 30 meeting
with visiting Assistant Secretary for International
Organization Affairs Brian Hook and Ambassador, stressed
justice and stability as priorities for the outcome of the
Special Tribunal. Jumblatt repeatedly ceded authority for
March 14 decisions regarding the Tribunal to Sunni leader
Saad Hariri but discussed the sensitivities of naming any
Lebanese party or sect, specifically Hizballah or the Shia,
as culpable in the killing of Saad,s father, former Prime
Minister Rafiq Hariri. He said President Sleiman was content
with a slow pace for the National Dialogue progress.
Jumblatt supported the idea of a third Christian list under
the auspices of President Sleiman for 2009 parliamentary
elections. End Summary.

JUSTICE AND STABILITY FOR UNIIIC
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2. (C) Druze Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid
Jumblatt emphasized to the Ambassador and visiting A/S for
International Organization Affairs Hook that while any
outcome of UNIIIC's investigation must provide justice for
Lebanon and for Jumblatt's March 14 ally Saad Hariri, it must
also avoid creating chaos in the country. Jumblatt
repeatedly referred to Saad as the "main actor" on the court,
saying Hariri needed justice for his father's killing.
Jumblatt said that while he shook hands with then President
Hafez Asad in Damascus despite believing that Asad was
responsible for the assassination of his father Kamal, he
doubts Hariri could do the same with Syrian president Bashir
Asad. Additionally, Jumblatt claimed that no disagreement
was possible between Saudi Arabia and Hariri, therefore,
Riyadh's reaction to the commission's work, and that of the
Special Tribunal, would be important.


3. (C) Referring to rumors that the inquiry had some evidence
implicating Hizballah, Jumblatt said that any UNIIIC outcome
involving the group must differentiate actions taken by
Hizballah sympathizers or a section within Hizballah from the
group itself and from the Shia sect. He described the
Tribunal as an important legal and political tool that should
be used to "change the behavior" of the Syrian regime, and
potentially Iranian leaders if they are implicated. A/S Hook
emphasized the strong U.S. commitment to the Special
Tribunal, evidenced by the United States' position as the
largest donor.

HIZBALLAH "CRAZY" TO PROVOKE WAR
--------------


4. (C) Although in 2006 the Lebanese population accepted
Hizballah's kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers, Jumblatt
assessed that popular sentiment had changed. He commented
that Hizballah would be "crazy" to give Israel a pretext for
war. Sunni, Druze, and parts of the Christian population
would not be receptive to opening their homes to persons from
the south displaced by war, as they had in 2006, and Shia
whose homes were destroyed in the 2006 war would not welcome
more destruction. Jumblatt said progress on Shebaa Farms and
settlement of the status of Ghajar would help reduce the
pretext for Hizballah's weapons.

UNRWA NEEDS SUPPORT
--------------


5. (C) Mentioning an earlier meeting with UNRWA Director
Salvatore Lombardo and Commissioner General Filippo Grandi
(septel),the Ambassador asked Jumblatt for his views on Nahr
al-Barid Palestinian camp, destroyed in the fighting last
summer between the Lebanese Armed Forces and extremist group
Fatah al-Islam. Jumblatt said UNRWA needs more money for
Lebanon's Palestinian camps. He argued that the Palestinians
cannot be left indefinitely without assistance. The Nahr
al-Barid refugees need schools, hospitals, and basic
services, he said.

BEIRUT 00001563 002 OF 002



HIZBALLAH'S ARMS DECIDED ABROAD
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6. (C) At the next National Dialogue meeting on November 5,
Jumblatt said he would discuss the possibility of
incorporating Hizballah,s weapons into the army but argued
that it is not a "local decision" but one that will be taken
"by the next Iranian president." He said the Lebanese Armed
Forces (LAF) eeds more advanced equipment, specifically
anti-ank and anti-aircraft missiles, to show the populaion
and Hizballah that it is fully equipped to protect the
country. President Sleiman, according to Jumblatt, is "not
in a hurry" to make any decisions in the National Dialogue
sessions.

SLEIMAN'S LIST WOULD BRING BALANCE
--------------


7. (C) Jumblatt assessed that reconciliation between
Christian leaders Suleiman Franjieh and Samir Geagea was
"impossible" and has been encouraging the formation of a
third Christian bloc under the leadership of President Michel
Sleiman. Responding to a question about whether Sleiman
would be willing to form such a list, Jumblatt said that
Sleiman, as the winner of the fighting against Fatah al-Islam
in the Nahr al-Barid Palestinian camp last year, should be
brave enough to form the list. His list would bring balance
to the political sphere as neither March 14 or March 8 would
have a majority. Jumblatt agreed with the Ambassador that
the idea of a separate Christian bloc had made opposition
Christian leader Michel Aoun very nervous.

TASHNAQ AND VOTING REGULATIONS
--------------


8. (C) Moving to other electoral issues, Jumblatt said he has
good relations with the Armenian Tashnaq party but doubts
they will leave the opposition. Jumblatt would support
international observers for the 2009 parliamentary elections,
which he said would be held in June, and said he had been
contacted by the Carter Center regarding the possibility of
international observers.


9. (C) Discussing out-of-country voting, Jumblatt argued
(only slightly in jest) that Lebanese politicians should be
able to hire planes and fly their emigrant supporters back to
Lebanon to vote, saying politicians needed to find a way
around the "stupid (campaign financing) law." (Note:
Jumblatt was referring to the new electoral financing
election law that caps the amount of money Lebanese
politicians are allowed to spend campaigning. End Note.)
Jumblatt estimated that 20,000 Druze live in the United
States alone.


10. (U) A/S Hook has cleared this cable.
SISON