LEBANON: NEA DAS HALE INFORMS SINIORA "NO CHANGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001466

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, PM/FO
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK, WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALIZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLEBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/YERGER/MCDERMOTT/RAMCHAND

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PTER UNSC MARR MOPS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: NEA DAS HALE INFORMS SINIORA "NO CHANGE
IN U.S. SYRIA POLICY"

Classified By: Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1
.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
--------------

1. (C) On October 7, NEA DAS Hale met with PM Siniora to
brief him on recent U.S. discussions with Syria and
reiterated that U.S. policy has not changed. PM Siniora
believes that Syria continues to "pressure" the government of
Lebanon (GOL) and has deployed troops along the northern
border to intimidate local residents and magnify tensions on
the ground. "(The Syrians) are creating the image of a
'monster' and will then claim they are the only ones who can
tame it," he said.

2. (C) In terms of the Joint Military Commission (JMC)
meeting on October 6, Siniora was pleased that it had been
productive and he hopes it will contribute to a solid and
committed USG relationship with the Lebanese Armed Forces
(LAF). End Summary.

3. (C) On October 7, NEA Deputy Assistant Secretary David
Hale, Ambassador, Pol/Econ Chief and Special Assistant met
with Prime Minister Siniora and his advisor, Rola Noureddine,
at the Grand Serail. Siniora, who was looking tan and
relaxed after a recent family holiday in Turkey, said he had
spoken by phone with Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan during
the visit. He had no additional insight to share from the
Turks on Israeli-Syrians talks, but said he and Erdogan had
agreed to further discussions, perhaps during an official
visit to Turkey this autumn.
"There has been no change in U.S. ) Syrian Policy"
--------------

4. (C) DAS Hale outlined the recent developments in
U.S.-Syrian discussions. Hale stressed that the recent minor
regional improvements by the Syrian regime are seen as merely
a "beginning" by Washington and that the direct talks gave
USG officials an opportunity to clearly outline how much
further Syria would need to progress in order to be accepted
by the international community. "There was no deal made and
there has been no change in U.S. policy," Hale assured
Siniora. "We viewed these talks as leverage and a means to
communicate our continued concerns directly." Hale also
stated that no additional high-level talks with Syria have
been scheduled at this time.

5. (C) Siniora restated his concerns about continued Syrian
influence in Lebanon and said the regime's goal is to place
continued pressure on the GOL. He also cautioned that the
Syrians are well-known for their political gamesmanship.
"They are convinced that time is on their side and they are
willing to wait for things to change, including the U.S.
administration." He said the short-term future will be
critical, as Lebanon enters into its parliamentary election
period and Syrian-Israeli and Syrian-Iranian talks continue.
Syrian Troops Are On the Border to Intimidate, Not Invade
--------------

6. (C) PM Siniora shared with us his assessment of recent
Syrian military maneuvers. "Nobody thinks the Syrians have
mobilized troops along the border for actual deployment into
Lebanon. The Syrians aren't that stupid. They know that the
move would be unacceptable to the international community,
particularly in the Muslim world. However, they have said
they are there to stop smuggling ) but Syrians typically aid
the smugglers. They've said they are afraid of extremists
entering into Syria from Lebanon ) but the reverse has
historically been true, especially with those terrorists who
were involved in the Nahr al-Barid conflict."

7. (C) Although not concerned about a Syrian invasion,
Siniora was skeptical about Syrian intentions. "What Syria is
really trying to do is to intimidate the population in the
north and magnify the admittedly real problems we have in the
area with conservative fundamentalists. The Syrians are
masters at highlighting a problem that ) it turns out )
only they can solve (by taking on a police function).
However, I have spoken with civil society groups in the north
and even invited the Salafists to come meet with me. They
all support the GOL and have no intention of allowing their
region to become another 'Kandahar' or base for
fundamentalists ) despite what the Syrians are implying."
DAS Hale Outlines Israeli Concerns with Ghajar Withdrawal
Proposals

BEIRUT 00001466 002 OF 002


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8. (C) DAS Hale also briefed Siniora on the recent
discussions in Israel led by NEA PDAS Feltman. According to
Hale, the USG's goal for these talks was to develop common
strategic thinking about Lebanon. Siniora said that he has
been concerned by a recent rise is anti-Lebanese rhetoric in
Israel. DAS Hale responded that the U.S. has encouraged the
GOI to consider ways to generate a more positive climate, but
he said the unimpeded flow of weapons to Hizballah was a
major concern for us and the Israelis.

9. (C) Siniora, ever the financial strategist, said that the
whole problem could be solved with money. "We just need
about ten million dollars to build some new homes and get the
Israeli inhabitants out of Ghajar." (Note: He then mused
aloud that, with recent "helpful" drops in the price of steel
and concrete, the actual figure would be more like 5 ) 7
million USD. A bargain! End Note.) "It costs UNIFIL and the
Israelis more, in the end, to conduct patrols and try to
prevent narcotics smuggling in the area than it would for
them to just build the houses."

10. (C) "We've had 18 months of talks on this issue and it is
important to get the Israelis out now," said Siniora. He
accepted the idea of UNIFIL as an interim security presence
and said that the LAF would certainly plan to control the
area UNIFIL departed, but this is something the GOL will
negotiate with UNIFIL and "definitely not with Israel."
Siniora also stressed the need to manage a withdrawal
correctly, in a way that gave credit to the GOL and not
Hizballah.

11. (C) When DAS Hale asked if Siniora was willing to
consider other options to resolve the issue, Siniora merely
shrugged and said the problem would only continue to grow if
not resolved quickly. DAS Hale and the Ambassador mentioned
that UN Special Coordinator Michael Williams would likely
arrive in Beirut shortly with additional ideas for progress
on the issue.
"JMC Talks Indicate USG Commitment to the LAF"
--------------

12. (C) DAS Hale informed Siniora that the JMC meetings had
been productive and that he had been impressed by the
well-prepared and ambitious plans presented by the LAF. Hale
said that further technical analysis was required on a few of
the requests, including helicopters, but that these delays
did not represent policy differences. He underlined that the
JMC should be viewed as a solid demonstration of the USG's
support for the LAF.

13. (C) Siniora replied that he hoped the JMC would produce a
new tone in the cooperative relationship. "We have had to
struggle at times for assistance, including during the Nahr
al-Barid fight when we needed ammunition," said Siniora.
Both DAS Hale and the Ambassador stressed the U.S.
commitment, at all levels of the Administration, to the
cooperative relationship.
Regional Issues
--------------

14. (C) Siniora asked for an update on the USG discussions
with Iraqi PM Malaki and confirmed that he had also heard
that talks are progressing. Siniora told us that after his
recent visit to Baghdad, he reached out to counterparts in
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Kuwait to stress the
importance of Arab support for Iraq. Siniora also said that
he would shortly be traveling back to Iraq to discuss energy,
among other issues.

15. (C) Siniora ended the meeting by stressing the importance
of the Middle East Peace Process, calling it the primary
foreign policy concern in Muslim states, including even
Turkey and Indonesia. Siniora also said that the current
economic crisis in the U.S. will encourage an increase in
radicalization, particularly if the effects are felt
internationally.

16. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this cable.
SISON