LEBANON: MP MICHAEL MURR REVEALS HIS INDEPENDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001391

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MP MICHAEL MURR REVEALS HIS INDEPENDENT
BLOC STRATEGY TO DEFEAT AOUN

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Crafty, lifelong politician MP Michel Murr unveiled
his still-secret strategy to defeat former ally and
opposition-aligned Michel Aoun in the spring 2009
parliamentary elections. Murr confided to the Ambassador on
September 22 that, with the green light from majority leader
Saad Hariri and President Michel Sleiman, he will form an
independent, "Christian-made" bloc. He described this bloc
as separate from, but similar in principles to, March 14, and
connected to Sleiman. Murr expressed his confidence in
drawing the Armenian Tashnaq party away from Aoun by offering
it seats on the Beirut-Ashrafieh list.


2. (C) Murr praised Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea's
apology at his September 21 rally, adding that the two
intended to meet soon. Murr anticipated that Sleiman will
convene the National Dialogue another two or three times
before parliamentary elections, but that the Dialogue would
not accomplish much prior to a new U.S. administration taking
office. End summary.

INDEPENDENT, "CHRISTIAN-MADE"
BLOC CONNECTED TO PRESIDENT
--------------


3. (C) On September 22, the Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff
and LES Senior Political Advisor, met with MP Michel Murr in
his Amaret Chalhoub office. Murr confided that he has been
preparing to form a new independent parliamentary bloc that
would stand alongside President Michel Sleiman. Murr, who
parted with Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun's Change
and Reform parliamentary bloc last April, stressed that his
bloc will be separate from the March 14 alliance, but will
adopt its principles. Noting that he was sharing his
strategy with the Ambassador in strict confidence, Murr
hinted that he would not go public until February.


4. (C) Murr predicted that the list he plans to compile for
the spring 2009 parliamentary elections will appeal to
Christian voters because it will not be perceived as a
"Sunni-made" list, an accusation levied at times against
March 14, which is composed of both Christians and Sunnis.
Murr relayed that he had also discussed this strategy with
Sunni March 14 leader Saad Hariri and Saudi Ambassador
Abdel-Aziz Khoja and secured Hariri's endorsement.

WINNING OVER TASHNAQ
--------------


5. (C) Critical to his strategy, Murr explained, was to
entice the Armenian Tashnaq party away from its alliance with
Aoun, which he intended to do in part by convincing Hariri to
allow for two seats in Beirut-Ashrafieh to be designated for
Tashnaq candidates. As for the Beirut-Ashrafieh list, Murr
outlined his plan to have Nadim Gemayel (26 year old son of
assassinated President Bachir Gemayel),Nayla Tueini (Murr's
granddaughter and daughter of assassinated MP Gebran Tueini),
and MP Michel Pharaon run on a list together with two Tashnaq
candidates to win all five of its seats.


6. (C) To seal the Tashnaq deal, Murr said he planned to form
a list of six candidates in the predominately Christian and
Armenian Metn district and propose to Aoun that he name two
candidates for this list. Murr anticipated that Aoun will
reject this proposal out of a desire to name five or six of
his own candidates. Murr speculated that Aoun's refusal
would provide Tashnaq the justification it needed to break
with Aoun, as it could claim that Aoun was thinking only of
himself, rather than of reaching consensus with his allies.

STRATEGY FOR EVERY DISTRICT
--------------


7. (C) Moving on to Baabda, Murr relayed that his son-in-law
Edmond ("Mony") Gharios, who heads the Chiah municipality,
will form a list with Hariri and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt.

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Murr expected that this list will win four of Baabda's six
seats, with Hizballah picking up the remaining two seats.
Murr estimated that the Sunni and Druze votes equal the
number of Shia votes, and therefore he was counting on
winning two-thirds of the Christian votes in order to win the
four seats.


8. (C) Relaying that he had met with and seemingly influenced
Sleiman three times in the last month or so, Murr reported he
intends to push Sleiman (who Murr reported is currently
reluctant) to proactively form lists in Kesarwan and Jbeil
districts that can defeat Aoun. Murr suggested an alliance
between former MP Mansour Ilbon, prominent industrialist
Neemat Frem (who we note is reluctant to run),and Farid
Haykal Khazen could pose a credible threat to Aoun in
Kesarwan.

SAUDIS OFFER MORE
THAN IRANIANS, TO DATE
--------------


9. (C) Though he declared that he does not require money to
implement his strategy, Murr said the Saudis are willing to
provide up to USD 250 million to support his independent
figures in the Christian areas. Conversely, he disclosed
that the Iranians have allocated USD 20 million to assist
Aoun.

MURR AND GEAGEA TO MEET
--------------


10. (C) In another strategic, elections-oriented move, Murr
praised Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea's remarks at his
rally the previous day, during which Geagea apologized for
"all the mistakes that were committed when we were carrying
out our national duties during past civil war years." Murr
said he also intended to make a public statement later the
same day expressing his praise. Murr relayed that he plans
to meet Geagea in the near future, a significant move given
that Geagea was found guilty and sentenced to prison in part
for attempting to kill Murr.

NATIONAL DIALOGUE MAY
MEET TWO MORE TIMES
BEFORE ELECTIONS
--------------


11. (C) Recognizing that the next National Dialogue session,
currently scheduled for November 5, could not have taken
place sooner due to Sleiman's travels and Ramadan, Murr said
he expected the Dialogue will convene again in January or
February, and possibly one more time before the spring
elections, but would not achieve results prior to the next
U.S. administration taking office.


12. (C) Murr also said he advised the Lebanese Armed Forces
(LAF) to work with Hizballah to understand how its missiles
operate. If Hizballah refuses, he mused, then it will be
easier for the GOL to criticize the organization for not
cooperating in building a strong state.
SISON