Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BEIRUT1389
2008-09-22 15:04:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:  

LEBANON: CHALLENGE HIZBALLAH BY FIXING THE DRUG

Tags:  PREL SNAR PTER PINR EAID SOCI UNSC NAS SY LE 
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PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHLB #1389/01 2661504
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 221504Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3123
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2960
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3173
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001389 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
S/P FOR DAVID GORDON/ASH JAIN/JARED COHEN
ALSO FOR INL/AAE ADAM BLOOMQUIST
INL/FO FOR PDAS MCGLYNN, A/S JOHNSON
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT
USAID FOR KUNDER/LAUDATO/BEVER/SCOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2018
TAGS: PREL SNAR PTER PINR EAID SOCI UNSC NAS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: CHALLENGE HIZBALLAH BY FIXING THE DRUG
PROBLEM IN BEKAA, SAYS PSP VICE PRESIDENT

REF: A. BEIRUT 912

B. BEIRUT 919

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001389

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
S/P FOR DAVID GORDON/ASH JAIN/JARED COHEN
ALSO FOR INL/AAE ADAM BLOOMQUIST
INL/FO FOR PDAS MCGLYNN, A/S JOHNSON
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT
USAID FOR KUNDER/LAUDATO/BEVER/SCOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2018
TAGS: PREL SNAR PTER PINR EAID SOCI UNSC NAS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: CHALLENGE HIZBALLAH BY FIXING THE DRUG
PROBLEM IN BEKAA, SAYS PSP VICE PRESIDENT

REF: A. BEIRUT 912

B. BEIRUT 919

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) Vice President
Duraid Yaghi said September 19 one-third of the population of
his hometown of Baalbek does not support Hizballah, although
it is in an area of strong Hizballah influence. However,
according to Yaghi, continued unemployment and increased
cultivation of illegal drugs is feeding into Hizballah's
strength in the Bekaa region. Yaghi, a Shia, suggested
Lebanon donors should consider funding an illegal drug crop
eradication and substitution program. Furthermore, he
admitted that the March 14 coalition had made several
mistakes in May, but said what was more worrisome was that
the coalition had not yet agreed on a unified electoral
platform or even begun planning for the 2009 parliamentary
elections. We believe there may be an opportunity for a
USG-sponsored crop substitution project in Baalbek and will
explore further options. Separately, anti-Hizballah and
prominent Shia businessman Abdullah Bitar told the Ambassador
he will take on Hizballah by running in the elections for a
Nabotieh seat, and hopes to join forces with other key
players in forming a list. End summary.

BAALBEK DOES NOT
BELONG TO HIZBALLAH
--------------


2. (C) Former Shia MP and current Progressive Socialist Party
(PSP) Vice President Duraid Yaghi estimated to the Ambassador
on September 19 that 30-35 percent of Baalbek's population
does not support Hizballah. Baalbek, situated in the heart
of Hizballah's stronghold in the Bekaa Valley, contains

"brave voters" who overwhelmingly supported PSP and other
parties in the majority over Hizballah in the most recent
municipal elections, he said. However, Baalbek lacks any
significant presence of state institutions, such as the
Internal Security Services (ISF) or the Lebanese Armed Forces
(LAF). According to Yaghi, the state "is not there."
Without these visible signs of state authority or other
state-provided social services, Yaghi worried Hizballah was
gaining greater support. Baalbek's residents, he said, often
"turn to Hizballah before going to the police or the courts."
Generally speaking, said Yaghi, Hizballah buys its loyalties
from residents by providing them $200-$300 per month,
offering educational scholarships, and providing health and
social services.

FIX THE DRUG PROBLEM,
DIMINISH HIZBALLAH LEVERAGE
--------------


3. (C) According to Yaghi, the incidence of hashish and opium
cultivation continues to rise in Baalbek. Lack of employment
opportunities, he believed, is driving greater numbers of
Baalbek residents to plant the illegal drug crops. The sale
of the crops feed into Hizballah's weapons network, as well
as provide valuable income to families, he said. The drug
problem, Yaghi said, is not new. In May 1996, while he was
MP, Yaghi and then-Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri drafted Decree
8666, which allows for the creation of a government
eradication program, with the use of international donor
assistance, for the Bekaa region, especially in Baalbek and
Hermel. The decree still exists, Yaghi said, but nothing
ever came of it. (Note: ISF Counternarcotics Unit head has
told Embassy INL Director that the ISF and LAF conduct
eradication campaigns on a yearly basis, with the exception
of 2007 when the program was not carried out because of the
Nahr al-Barid conflict. End Note.) Yaghi requested
assistance from the U.S. and other donors to revive the drug
eradication effort, suggesting that any success with such a
program could sway support away from Hizballah and towards
the March 14 coalition as the 2009 parliamentary elections

BEIRUT 00001389 002 OF 003


approach. (Note: INL funding will provide training in
December for 50 ISF officers in counternarcotics tactics.
The course will be taught by DEA instructors. End Note.)

MARCH 14 MADE MISTAKES;
NOT PREPARED FOR ELECTIONS
--------------


4. (C) Yaghi admitted that the March 14 coalition to which
his party belongs made several mistakes in May. First, he
said, March 14, and specifically March 14 leader Saad
Hariri's Future Movement miscalculated the extent of
Hizballah reaction when Future Movement pushed the Druze
leaders Walid Jumblatt and Marwan Hamadeh, who was minister
of telecommunications, to close down Hizballah's
communication networks. After the ensuing takeover of West
Beirut by Hizballah, and the subsequent agreement reached in
Doha that paved the way for election of President Sleiman,
Yaghi believed March 14 should have publicly admitted its
mistake, while articulating a vision. Neither has happened,
Yaghi said, and "we find ourselves in a bad situation."


5. (C) Furthermore, he warned, the re-districting agreement
reached in Doha for the 2009 parliamentary elections that
placed Baalbek and Hermel into one district exacerbates March
14's problems. Baalbek by itself, he said, probably would
produce two Sunni and two Christian candidates to counter
Hizballah's four candidates. However, both MP slots in
Hermel will go to Hizballah candidates, he predicted. As one
district, if Hizballah wins the majority, all ten MP seats
will go to Hizballah. Yaghi said he planned to talk with
Hariri "soon" about his concerns for Baalbek and to secure
Hariri's assurances that tangible assistance would be
forthcoming to Baalbek's voters, and not just words of
support.


6. (C) Yaghi was also visibly concerned about the lack of a
unified March 14 message. He fretted that if another two
months pass before the platform is decided, then March 14
should not expect favorable election results. In Baalbek, he
said, Hizballah has been preparing for the elections for the
last six months, while March 14 has not started. In
addition, Yaghi envied the fact that Hizballah speaks "with
one voice," while March 14 has many parties and many
different voices, he said.


7. (C) Yaghi did not believe the 2009 elections would be
delayed, as "everybody thinks they will win." He did not
foresee Hizballah initiating any type of military action that
could put the elections in jeopardy, and opined that
Hizballah's backers, Iran and Syria, would not support such a
scenario. Yaghi supported President Sleiman's decision to
launch the National Dialogue, but did not believe any serious
discussion of Hizballah's weapons would occur until after the
elections.

ANTI-HIZBALLAH SHIA
RUNNING IN ELECTIONS
--------------


8. (C) In a separate September 22 meeting with the
Ambassador, anti-Hizballah prominent Shia businessman and
head of the Nabatieh Traders Association and the Economists
Union Abdullah Bitar (Ref A) stated his intentions to take on
Hizballah and run in the elections as a candidate from his
hometown (and current residence) in Nabatieh, a Hizballah
stronghold in southern Lebanon. Alone, he anticipated he
could win approximately 5,000 votes from Nabatieh proper, and
10,000 votes from its surrounding areas. Believing that
Lebanon's southern residents would be willing to vote for
non-Hizballah candidates, said he hopes to join forces with
anti-Hizballah figure Ahmad al-Assad (Ref B) (who Bitar noted
had distanced himself from him in the last few months),
Hariri, and the Communist party to offer an alternative to
Hizballah.

COMMENT
--------------

BEIRUT 00001389 003 OF 003




9. (C) Despite losing his last contest for an MP seat, Yaghi
remains actively involved in politics. He is also president
of Baalbek's Bar Association. Independent Shia organizer
Lokman Slim and others have encouraged Yaghi to consider
running as a candidate in the 2009 elections, but Yaghi says
he is reluctant due to the personal risks. (Note: In May,
his house was set on fire by unknown assailants, but
presumably the attack was politically motivated. An
investigation is currently underway. End note.) The picture
Yaghi paints of the March 14 coalition's prospects for
electoral success in 2009 is disheartening, but echoes the
message we have carried to our March 14 interlocutors that a
unified platform is very important to winning the elections.


10. (C) Although USG projects in the Bekaa are limited, we
believe there could be an opportunity for an USG-sponsored
crop eradication and substitution program. A similar project
located along Lebanon's northern border was considered
previously by UNDCP, but did not get off the ground.
However, we will explore the feasibility of resurrecting such
a project for the Bekaa. If feasible, such a project could
used an effective tool of the GOL to blunt expanding
Hizballah influence in Baalbek. End comment.
SISON