LEBANON: FIRST NATIONAL DIALOGUE SESSION MEETS LOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BEIRUT 001368

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: FIRST NATIONAL DIALOGUE SESSION MEETS LOW
EXPECTATIONS

REF: A. BEIRUT 1366

B. BEIRUT 1358

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Most participants characterized the first session of
the re-launched National Dialogue as calm and positive; one
contact said it was "more than a photo op, but less than a
dialogue." Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah
welcomed the dialogue, but insisted on expanded
participation. By contrast, many political analysts and
ordinary Lebanese citizens have decided to "wait and see"
before passing judgment, with many noting that at a minimum,
the dialogue reduced the immediate threat of widespread
violence. Lebanese print and television media carried
reports of the details of the closed session obtained by
their sources. Paragraph 11 contains a summary of
interventions by Dialogue participants at the session.
Paragraph 12 is an unofficial translation of President
Sleiman's opening remarks. End summary.

REACTION AND ATMOSPHERICS
FROM DIALOGUE PARTICIPANTS
--------------


2. (C) Reactions to President Sleiman's September 16 National
Dialogue launch were generally positive, although
expectations were low to begin with. Progressive Socialist
Party and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt told the Ambassador
September 17 that the mood of the dialogue was calm.
However, many in the opposition continued to call for an
expanded agenda and participation in an attempt to detract
attention away from the central issue, Hizballah's arms (Ref
A).


3. (C) Christian MP and March 14 member Boutros Harb
commented on September 16 that the atmosphere inside the
conference room was good and positive. He said Michel Aoun
defended the resistance (Hizballah) and asked to expand the
number of participants in the dialogue. Hizballah MP
Mohammad Raad asked to add more topics to the dialogue's
agenda, Harb reported. However, both proposals were opposed
by March 14. In the end, the issue of expanding the number
of participants was deferred to President Sleiman to make a
final decision, Harb said.


4. (C) Armenian MP Hagop Pakradunian described the September
16 meeting as "more than a photo op, but less than a
dialogue." During the closed session, he said, President
Sleiman stressed the need for domestic reconciliation to pave
the way for the Lebanese Armed Forces to withdraw troops from
the streets of Beirut and other areas and focus, instead, on
disarming the Palestinian camps. Pakradunian disclosed that
Sleiman also is working to secure a meeting between Hizballah
Secretary General (SYG) Hassan Nasrallah and March 14 and
Sunni majority leader Saad Hariri. According to Pakradunian,
Sleiman noted that there was a consensus in the government's
ministerial statement in August regarding the resistance.
This prompted Amine Gemayel to recall that some
parliamentarians had expressed reservations to the statement
with their vote. Pakradunian also reported that Hariri
called for a solution to the daily clashes occurring in
various towns throughout Lebanon and for removing all types
of provocative emblems, including pictures and slogans of
political parties, from Beirut streets.


5. (C) Opposition Zahle bloc leader and Minister of
Agriculture Elie Skaff reported that Lebanese Forces leader
Samir Geagea opposed expanding the number of dialogue
participants by saying, "If March 8 wants to enlarge the
table, then March 14 should also add participants to include
(March 14 Christians) Nayla Mouawad and Michel Pharon."
Skaff believed Geagea's objections were designed to
discourage Geagea's Christian rival and Hizballah ally
Suleiman Franjieh from being allowed to join the talks.


6. (C) State Minister Nassib Lahoud, although not a

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participant in the talks, applauded President Sleiman's
opening remarks, saying that he appreciated Sleiman's
prioritization of the national defense strategy. Reporting
that Skaff had tried to add discussion of the role of the
GOL's Council for Development and Reconstruction to the
agenda, Lahoud concluded that the opposition is attempting to
draw focus away from the defense strategy by flooding the
agenda with irrelevant items (septel).

HIZBALLAH REPEATS CALL
FOR EXPANDED PARTICIPATION
--------------


7. (SBU) In remarks made during a September 16 iftar and
reported in the media, Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah
welcomed the National Dialogue and insisted on expanding the
participation. He explained that some parties were loyal to
Hizballah during the July 2006 war and he is now insisting on
their participation because "we are loyal to them." He
added, "When everyone is present, we will be able to discuss
all controversial issues seriously and positively." However,
Hizballah MP Mohammed Raad, a participant in the talks,
clarified that this is a "suggestion and not a condition."


8. (C) Druze MP Akram Shuhayyeb, also a close aide of Walid
Jumblatt, told Pol/Econ Chief September 16 that Hizballah's
strategy is to use delaying tactics, such as calling for
expanded participation and additional agenda items, to
prevent the dialogue participants from discussing the primary
issue, Hizballah's weapons. Shuhayyeb theorized that
Hizballah wanted to water down the National Dialogue until
after the 2009 parliamentary elections because, he believed,
Hizballah wants to gather support for its cause from across
the confessional spectrum.


9. (C) March 14 Secretary General Fares Souaid said Hizballah
is buying time. However, he believed Hizballah's delaying
tactics would last until after the U.S. elections and until
he gets a clearer picture of Israeli-Syrian negotiations.

ORDINARY CITIZENS
REMAIN SKEPTICAL
--------------


10. (SBU) While most political figures praised the start of
the National Dialogue, political observers and ordinary
citizens were less effusive in their commentary. One
political analyst was quoted as saying, "Of course it's a
good thing that people are talking instead of shooting each
other, but ultimately it's all dancing in a circle."
Furthermore, he asserted that peace in Lebanon was contingent
upon resolving other regional crises. Similarly, the BBC
Beirut office published an interview with several young
people who were either apathetic or resigned to continued
conflict. One interviewee said Nasrallah was the only
politician with a "vision."

DETAILS OF THE CLOSED SESSION,
ACCORDING TO PRESS SOURCES
--------------


11. (U) All major Lebanese print and media outlets provided
extensive coverage and analysis September 16 following the
conclusion of the first session of the National Dialogue:

-- Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri emphasized the
importance of dialogue and noted that priority should be
given to the defense strategy. During the closed session,
Berri reportedly presented a detailed report on the results
of the former National Dialogue sessions held in 2006.

-- Former president Amine Gemayel reportedly gave a lengthy
presentaton about the definition of "sovereignty" and
Lebnese history since 1958. Prior to the start of th
talks, Gemayel distributed a book commemorating his
assassinated son, Pierre Gemayel, to participants in honor of
Pierre's participation during the 2006 dialogue.

-- Prime Minister Fouad Siniora discussed the present
security situation and foreign interference in Lebanon. In

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addition, Siniora said the dialogue should give priority to
economic issues.

-- Free Patriotic Movement founder and opposition leader
Michel Aoun said the defense strategy should contain two
parts: political and technical issues. He also raised the
issue of terrorism, discussed the capabilities of the LAF,
and the status of the information bureau at the Internal
Security Forces (ISF) (seen as close to majority leader Saad
Hariri).

-- MP Michel Murr suggested that the LAF should present its
views on the defense strategy to dialogue participants.
However, Murr's suggestion was rebuked by participants'
remarks that the policy is the responsibility of the
political authorities, and the LAF should prepare a strategy
that meets the policy's needs. (Note: Jumblatt confirmed
this in his September 17 meeting with the Ambassador (Ref A).
End note.)

-- Minister of Economy and Trade Mohammad Safadi expressed
concern to dialogue participants of the danger unnamed
"forces" were causing by inciting strife between Sunni and
Shia populations.

UNOFFICIAL TRANSLATION
OF SLEIMAN'S REMARKS
--------------


12. The unofficial embassy translation of President Sleiman's
opening remarks is as follows:

BEGIN TRANSLATION:
Dear Gentlemen,

We meet today to launch again a dialogue which we have always
wanted to start, and which we have always realized the nation
has a desperate need for it to be successful; and, which we
realize the citizens eagerness for it to reach an outcome
that would bring them back what they have been missing for a
long time which is political stability, economic prosperity,
and social safety.

Our meeting is a milestone in which we open a new window
towards holding a calm dialogue, based on deep-rooted
democratic experience of which dialogue was one of its most
prominent practices. Dialogue and democracy are twins, both
based on discussion and debate, and on recognizing and
respecting another's opinion. I find myself believing that
reconciliation between parties involved in dialogue is the
other side that compliments dialogue. Openness and
reconciliation lead to consensus on what ensures building a
strong state, and commitment to democratic practices. All
this will lead to affirming and strengthening the state's
ability to manage its own affairs.

Our national responsibility requires us not to accept any
substitute for accomplishment in these agreements, which are
our path to a good life. Other alternatives ) contrary to
agreements - call for serious concern and fear for the
future. Agreements deserve (for us) to pause and think
carefully then, and we should take initiatives by making
concessions and accepting sacrifices even if painful.
Concessions are not presented to one another by parties
involved in dialogue, but are a sacrifice made for the sake
of this nation's pride and dignity.

Our role becomes clear and our responsibility becomes
confirmed when we look around us: Tensed political
atmospheres have gone beyond our region and are warning us of
international tensions, which if continued, are expected to
lead to...polarizations. We are a small and a diverse country
that must be united and in solidarity during the good and the
bad times ) perhaps, it may succeed in avoiding the possible
effect of the wind if it blows. For us and for you, harsh
past experiences are the best proof.

Dear Honored (Lebanese) People,

The Lebanese National Dialogue Conference, called for by the

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Speaker of the House in 2006, was able to reach a consensus
on several issues. This was an appreciated and commendable
achievement which requires going ahead with implementation.
We must admit that your National Dialogue Sessions are the
reason for what we are embarking upon today. We must also
highly appreciate the auspices of the Arab League in the
person of its Secretary General Amr Moussa and the efforts
exerted by the Arab Foreign Ministers Committee that was
crowned by the decisions reached in Doha sponsored by Qatar's
Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani. Today we launch the
mechanism of resuming the Lebanese National Dialogue.

Various parties think that the issue of the Defense Strategy
for Lebanon should be discussed. The strategy is a
comprehensive title that discusses major options and
long-term plans. It deals with the various state resources
mobilizing in order to reach the desired objectives. Many
have suggested discussion of other topics in conjunction with
this strategy. I think that our first task is to come up with
a general scenario for this dialogue in form and content.
Accepting dialogue in itself means that nothing is closed,
but that various topics are likely to be discussed and
subject to reaching a consensus. The only impermissible
thing is failure or reaching a dead end.

Dear Honored People,

Major risks still threaten this beloved homeland, and we all
agree that Israel remains the biggest source of danger to us.
Israel does not hesitate to announce its hostile intentions
towards us, and threaten to strike our institutions and our
national establishments, which confirms its insistence on
aggression and making light of international legitimacy and
UN resolutions and UN forces operating in the south. Not to
mention its continued occupation of parts of our territory in
the Sheba'a Farms, Kfarshouba Hills and the northern part of
the Ghajar village and its continued denial of the
Palestinian refugees of their legitimate rights.

Given this reality, and based on Lebanon's right, "people,
army and resistance," to defend their land, we must develop a
strategy integrating all the strong elements in the state,
and which falls under the state's definition of defending its
territory within the framework of the country's general
policy. I am fully confident that we can develop a strategy
to protect Lebanon that is based on our armed forces, and
benefits from the capabilities and energies of the
resistance. Let us discuss the elements of strength that we
have and let us integrate our capabilities, including
diplomacy. Let Lebanon's message and diversity become
fruitful so we achieve through dialogue consensus and unity
and approach such a fateful issue with united views.

In the recent period, favorable conditions and external
factors were present. We can build upon these factors during
the dialogue sessions, particularly through the
Syrian-Lebanese Summit. The joint Lebanese-Syrian statement
that followed the summit can be a basis that should be
followed up. It establishes a valid ground for fortifying
our abilities, and promotes elements of strength that are
available in both countries. We will follow up on this quest
to confirm Lebanon's rights and defend its supreme interests,
through our presence in upcoming international forums, and
through the mutual visits that were made, and the visits that
are being prepared for.

The next parliamentary elections are waiting for us in the
near future. Elections are a central component of our
freedom and democracy, and a fundamental milestone in the
process of building the sovereign state. Achieving these
elections in the best way possible signifies our ability to
manage our affairs ourselves. I think that the atmosphere
which will be created by dialogue will push those concerned
to ratify the election law as soon as possible, and move
forward to prepare all necessary measures to complete these
elections on time.

To be realistic, we have to acknowledge the difficulties and
dangers that are obstructing our march. Whenever we progress
on the path towards calm and stability, those affected

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negatively seek to fabricate tension and create chaos.
Whenever we succeed in overcoming differences and hold
reconciliations, forces of evil work on punishing the brave
who worked on these reconciliations. In this context, as
soon as we launched dialogue, the Baisour murder occurred and
one of those brave people was punished. But the winds of
reconciliation have blown and harvested yesterday Khaldeh,s
meeting. The hands of treachery, crime, were not able to do
anything. Let us take advantage of the favorable wind. The
crime is an act by Lebanon's enemies. We can only confront
Lebanon's enemies with such will to hold a dialogue and with
courage to reach reconciliation.

The national goals we are seeking as an outcome of this
dialogue will remain subject to great dangers. It should be
monitored by the media and by parties in the dialogue with
responsibility, and with a healthy media atmosphere that
separates clearly between the sanctity of the freedom of
expression and the chaos of exchanges through media outlets.
Pleasing results may not start to appear early. The
atmosphere of frankness and talking about obsessions may
suggest that dialogue is going towards a deadlock... In this
context we consider that all Lebanese media outlets should
embrace the National Dialogue away from sectarian tension.
We only see the media outlets committed to the laws and
professional practices, and seeking to promote reconciliation
and national unity.

I chose to have the dialogue in the "Independence Hall," the
Hall of November 22. The symbolism of this room urges us to
strengthen the march of independence, and stabilize the
pillars of reconciliation based on the Constitution and the
National Accord document emanating from the Ta'if Agreement.

Lebanon, Gentlemen, the meeting place of civilizations has
been distinguished by extraordinary pluralism, which gave it
its uniqueness. It became a prominent example that plays an
effective role in its Arab context and the international
community as a vivid illustration of the coexistence of
cultures. This is how Lebanon was, and this is how it should
stay. Our homeland lives on the culture of dialogue and we
must give, and be, the example. End translation.
SISON