LEBANON: BERRI SAYS EXPECT MORE RECONCILIATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001351

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK AND PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR IS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: BERRI SAYS EXPECT MORE RECONCILIATION
BEFORE 2009 ELECTIONS

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a September 15 meeting with the Ambassador,
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said he does not oppose
increasing the list of agenda items for the upcoming National
Dialogue, as long as they are pertinent and are related to
the national defense strategy. Berri added that he expects
more reconciliation efforts between opposing political
parties in the run-up to parliamentary elections scheduled
for spring 2009. He said the elections should not be
postponed due to a lack of resources on the part of the
Ministry of Interior and offered suggestions as to what
electoral reforms he would like to see adopted. He noted
that President Sleiman should bring up a number of topics
with POTUS during their scheduled September 25 meeting,
including enhanced USG assistance to the Lebanese Armed
Forces and the issue of Israeli overflights, as well as a
water dispute between Lebanon and Israel. End Summary.

NATIONAL DIALOGUE
--------------


2. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff, met with the
Speaker and MP Ali Bazzi at Berri's office in Ain el-Tineh on
September 15. Berri said he does not oppose expanding the
National Dialogue's agenda, but only if all participants
agree to do so and if the purposed topic is "appropriate."
He added that the national defense strategy (i.e.,
Hizballah's weapons) is the only required item that must be
discussed during the dialogue. However, the national defense
strategy, in Berri's view, can include military, security,
economic, political, diplomatic and media-related issues.
Berri noted that economic topics could revolve around whether
the financial resources are available for the Lebanese Armed
Forces (LAF) to provide for the national defense. Purely
economic issues not related to national defense can wait to
be discussed in a more appropriate forum such as within the
cabinet, the parliament, or the Socio-Economic Council,
according to Berri.


3. (C) However, Berri reiterated that as long as there was
consensus on the National Dialogue agenda by all
participants, he would not object. Berri noted that he wants
the National Dialogue to proceed quickly and added that there
was no relationship between the dialogue and the planned
spring 2009 parliamentary elections. He added that President
Sleiman offered him the opportunity to address the Dialogue
during its opening session on September 16, but Berri
declined the offer.

RECONCILIATION
IS IN THE AIR
--------------


4. (C) Berri said majority leader Saad Hariri's recent trips
to Tripoli and Bekaa helped settle differences between Sunni
and Shia groups who have been battling each other the past
several months in these areas. Berri mentioned that the
September 10 assassination of opposition Druze political
figure Saleh al-Aridi (septel) may complicate Hariri's
efforts. He noted that many things will change in the coming
months before the election date is set and alluded to the
prospect of Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)/ Druze leader
Walid Jumblatt's "reconciliation" with Hizballah. Berri said
starting today, such reconciliations should not come as a
surprise. (Note: Later that same day, representatives of
Jumblatt sat down with representatives of Hizballah and
others. In addition, majority leader Hariri gave a broad
hint to the Ambassador in their meeting on September 13 that
he would meet with Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah. End Note.)

ELECTIONS
ADMINISTRATION

BEIRUT 00001351 002 OF 003


--------------


5. (C) In response to press reports that the elections may
be postponed due to the Ministry of Interior's lack of
resources in administering the elections, Berri said he
preferred for the elections be held on time in spring 2009.
He also added that he believes no one supports delaying the
elections because both sides believe they will win. He said
there is still time for the new election law to be drafted
and that a new law would only need to be voted on before
January 2009, in order to give the MPs time to prepare for
their individual campaigns. He noted that the draft
electoral law would be submitted to the parliament before
September 25 (parliament's next plenary session),most likely
on September 23. However, Bazzi noted that at a meeting he
had earlier in the day with Minister of Interior Ziyad
Baroud, Baroud told him that logistics and security would
pose a problem to facilitating one day elections (just as
Baroud has told us).

BERRI SUPPORT
ELECTORAL REFORM
--------------


6. (C) Berri said he supported reforms such as adding a
magnetic strip to ID cards to ensure citizens vote one time.
Berri also noted that he would like to see a reform in the
rule that requires citizens to vote in the district where
their father was born. Berri wants voters to be allowed to
vote in the district in which they live. He said it costs
around $1.5 million to bus around 200,000 citizens from the
south of the country to Beirut to vote in their fathers'
districts. This type of system allows those who provide
transport to exert influence over their passengers, by asking
the voter to repay for the service by voting the way the
transporter wants, according to Berri. He stressed that
whichever electoral law is passed will be weak without this
reform.


7. (C) Berri added that he supports lowering the voter age
to 18, a reform about which Christian politicians are leery.
He also supported allowing for overseas voting, saying that
if he and his colleagues in the opposition supported this
reform, the Christians would have to support lowering the
voter age. (Note: It is widely believed here that possible
overseas voters are disproportionally Christian and possible
younger voters aged 18-25 disproportionally Shia. However,
there is no statistical evidence to support this. In
addition, NGO contacts tell us most 18-25 year old Muslims
are registered to vote in majority Muslin districts and
similarly overseas Christians voters would vote in majority
Christian areas. End Note.)

HUSSEIN HUSSEINI SUPPORTS
PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION
--------------


8. (C) At a separate meeting, former Speaker of Parliament
and recently resigned Shia MP Hussein Husseini told the
Ambassador on September 15 that the only resolution to
Lebanon,s political crisis is to create a new system of
proportional representation and preferential vote in
parliament. (Proportional representation is the idea whereby
the number of seats allotted to each list of candidates in a
district is directly proportional to the percentage of votes
obtained by that list of candidates. In addition, the
preferential vote would be the mechanism through which voters
specify their favored candidate from those on the list.)
Husseini, speaking at his home, said the May 2008 Doha
Agreement did not address the underlying electoral system
when it supported changes to Lebanon,s electoral district
mapping. In his view, an electoral law that is based on a
majority system (i.e., candidate lists that garner 50.1
percent of votes obtain all of the seats for that district)
is insufficient and will only lead to civil war. The
parliament is scheduled to vote on a new electoral law on
September 25.

BEIRUT 00001351 003 OF 003



SLEIMAN
TRIP TO DC
--------------


9. (C) Berri noted the good relationship between the U.S. and
Lebanon, but said he wanted president Sleiman to bring up
with President Bush that the U.S. needs to support the LAF
with more advanced offensive weapons and training. He
asserted that this would be difficult because Israel has a
"veto" on any weapons provided to the LAF from the USG.
Berri said he understood the strategic relationship between
the U.S. and Israel, but noted that, "The U.S. has another
friend in the region, Lebanon." Berri said the LAF is quite
weak and that it needs more weapons and training, and that if
it had better resources it might not have lost so many troops
during the summer 2007 Nahr al-Barid fight.


10. (C) Berri also noted Sleiman should raise with the
President the continuing violations of Lebanon's airspace by
Israeli fighter planes, and added that the overflights
violate UNSCR 1701, as well as the 1949 Armistice between
Lebanon and Israel, which states that neither country would
violate the other's land, air, or sea space. In addition, he
noted that there are water shortages in south Lebanon as a
result of Israel was stealing water from the Wazzani river,
which Berri claimed was in Lebanese territory. Lebanon
receives a small portion of the water, but Berri said Sleiman
should ask the President to ask the Israelis to give up more
of the river to the Lebanese living in the south.

PEACE PLAN WITH
ISRAEL FAR OFF
--------------


11. (C) Berri continued that he supported the 2002 Saudi
peace initiative but that now is not the time. Berri did not
believe that such a deal could be achieved now, mainly
because of the change in the U.S. administration and because
of the elections for a replacement to outgoing Israeli PM
Ehud Olmert. Berri added that it was in Syria's interests to
talk to Israel, but balked at the idea that Lebanon would
have direct talks with Israel anytime soon, noting that
Lebanon would be the last Arab country to make peace with
Israel. He did highlight that Lebanon was currently having
indirect talks with Israel as a part of the tripartite
meetings between Israeli Defense Force (IDF) officials, UN
Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) Commanding General Claudio
Graziano, and the LAF, represented by LAF G-2 Brigadier
General Abdul-Rahman Shehaitly.
SISON