LEBANON: ISF HEAD: ONE DAY ELECTION IMPOSSIBLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001327

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, INL/FO, AND INL/AAE
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR NAS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ISF HEAD: ONE DAY ELECTION IMPOSSIBLE
FROM SECURITY STANDPOINT

Classified By: Ambassador Michel J. Sison for reason 1.4
(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. The Director General of the Internal Security
Forces (ISF),Major General Achraf Rifi, has reported to the
Lebanese Minister of Interior (MOI) that the ISF would be
unable to provide full security throughout all polling places
in Lebanon if Spring parliamentary elections were to be held
in one day. Calculating that 30,120 ISF troops would be
required to provide the required security, Rifi told the
Ambassador and Emboffs that the ISF could free at a maximum
12,000 of its 23,500 members to provide security at the
polling places. Although recognizing that it may be
preferable politically to hold elections in one day,
according to Rifi it was an impossibility due to ISF,s
limited manpower. Rifi, a Tripoli native, also commented on
the recent Tripoli reconciliation agreement and on the ISF,s
use of US-funded equipment in that northern city. End
Summary.


2. (C) In a meeting on September 9, the Director General of
the ISF, Major General Rifi, informed the Ambassador and
accompanying INL officer and RSO, that he had just delivered
a report to the Minister of Interior that concluded that the
ISF lacks sufficient manpower to provide the requisite
security if the GOL were decided to hold the next
parliamentary elections in just one day. (Comment:
Traditionally parliamentary elections in Lebanon have been
held over four consecutive Sundays. Recent electoral law
reform proposals have recommended that all voters vote on one
day to avoid having votes cast in week one influence voters
who vote during a later week. The Internal Security Forces
is responsible for providing physical security of the actual
ballot boxes and internal security within the polling
location (generally schools). The Lebanese Armed Forces
(LAF) is responsible for providing external security outside
the polling site. End comment.)


3. (C) The study presented to the MOI by Rifi broke down the
number of ISF required to provide the election security by
voting district (sufficient police in each polling venue and
at the vote count site and two police for each ballot box).
The breakdown, according to Rifi, is as follows:

Beirut: 73 polling places; 780 ballot boxes, 1 vote
compilation site - total police required: 2,300;

Mount Lebanon: 543 polling places; 1552 ballot boxes, 4 vote
compilation sites - total police required: 8,574;

North: 488 polling places; 1359 ballot boxes, 6 vote
compilation sites - total police required: 7,658;

Beqaa: 328 polling places; 947 ballot boxes, 5 vote
compilation sites - total police required: 5,224;

South: 379 polling places; 1257 ballot boxes, 3 vote
compilation sites - total police required: 6,364;

Total Police required to provide election security throughout
Lebanon: 30,120.


4. (C) Rifi stressed that the ISF only has 23,500 men in its
entirety, and therefore, even if they all were assigned to
the election detail, the ISF would not be able to provide the
30,120 required policemen. Rifi noted that police duties do
not stop during elections, and that the ISF would have to
retain at least 11,500 men on the streets to accomplish their
normal policing duties during that election day, such as
traffic control and crime prevention. Therefore he calculates
that he has 12,000 police, at a maximum, available for
election-day security responsibilities. When asked who could
fill the gap, Rifi replied the LAF would have to do it, since
the number of personnel assigned to the other Lebanese
security agencies, such as General and State Security, are
very small. (Note: Per reftel, new LAF Commander Kahwagi
told us earlier this week that while one-day parliamentary
elections would represent an advancement in political
efficacy, it would also create a new set of security
problems. End note.)


5. (C) Rifi and his Chief of Staff, General Joseph Hajal, who
also attended the meeting, assured the Ambassador that the
ISF provides training to its police officers manning the
polling stations and supervising and escorting the ballot

BEIRUT 00001327 002 OF 002


boxes. Specific election duty training is provided
approximately two weeks before the day of elections. Hajal
noted that ISF troops are prepared at least two months in
advance in how to deal with heightened tensions associated
with the impending election.

Violence in Tripoli
--------------


6. (C) The Ambassador,s visit followed by one day the
signing of the reconciliation agreement between Sunni and
Alawite leaders in Tripoli to end recent sectarian fighting
in that northern city. Rifi, who hails from Tripoli, called
the truce agreement "a big step". When asked if the
well-armed parties would be required to turn over their
weapons, Rifi characterized that as a political decision.
"The government cannot ask just the North to turn over their
weapons, if they are not going to ask the entire country to
do so", he said. Rifi mentioned that the ISF Mobile Forces
were deployed to their maximum capability in Tripoli during
and before the truce agreement signing, and will remain there
until the political situation stabilizes.


7. (C) Rifi confirmed that the equipment and vehicles
provided by the U.S. to the ISF under INL programs were used
throughout the ISF deployment to the North, as well as used
to protect the dignitaries and dignatories during their time
in Tripoli. Rifi also commended the Embassy,s INL and PD
offices and Lebanon Police Program for organizing the very
successful press roundtable the day before. The open
roundtable discussion of the U.S. Lebanon Police Training and
Visitor's Program resulted in very positive press, even from
the opposition newspaper Al Akhbar.


8. (C) As the meeting drew to a close, Rifi returned to the
issue of not having sufficient men to provide nation-wide
voting protection in one day. He was adamant that it was
impossible to have a one-day parliamentary election, even
while recognizing that it may be a politically preferable
procedure. Rifi opined that if Lebanon went ahead with the
one day voting plan without the requisite security in place,
Hizbollah and its followers would vote, but many other
Lebanese would not, because they would be too afraid to do so.

SISON