Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BEIRUT1326
2008-09-09 16:39:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:  

LEBANON: INDEPENDENT SHIA GEARING UP FOR 2009

Tags:  PREL PGOV PTER PINR PHUM EAID LE IZ SY 
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FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
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INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
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RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001326 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR S/P DGORDON/AJAIN/JCOHEN
DRL FOR A/S KRAMER, DAS RUGGLES
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PHUM EAID LE IZ SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: INDEPENDENT SHIA GEARING UP FOR 2009
ELECTIONS

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001326

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR S/P DGORDON/AJAIN/JCOHEN
DRL FOR A/S KRAMER, DAS RUGGLES
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PHUM EAID LE IZ SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: INDEPENDENT SHIA GEARING UP FOR 2009
ELECTIONS

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Lokman Slim, an independent Shia organizer and
Director of NGO Hayya Bina, told the Ambassador on September
5 that the March 14 coalition needs to take the independent
Shia portfolio more seriously. Slim surmised that Shia
independents could have a real possibility of winning
parliamentary seats during the 2009 elections in several of
the heavily contested districts, if given support. Slim, and
some of his colleagues, are supportive of independent Shia
cabinet minister Ibrahim Shamseddine. Slim viewed (Sunni)
majority leader Saad Hariri's July visit to Iraq, especially
Najaf, positively for independent Shia and bridging the gap
between Lebanese and Iraqi Shiites.


2. (C) Slim and his assistant also shared with the Ambassador
details of a confrontation between Hayya Bina's local
partners and Hizballah at two summer camps Hayya Bina
sponsored in partnership with USAID/OTI. Slim described the
recent violence in Tripoli as worrying and believed that
former Prime Minister Najib Mikati is competing with Saad
Hariri for support in Tripoli. End summary.

INDEPENDENT SHIA SHOULD
BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY
--------------


3. (C) Lokman Slim, an independent Shia organizer and
Director of NGO Hayya Bina, complained September 5 to the
Ambassador, accompanied by Poloffs, that March 14 leaders
were still not taking the Shia portfolio seriously enough.
Slim, and his assistant Inga Schei, said independent Shia
candidates continued to encounter problems of coordination
with their "objective allies," i.e. majority/Sunni leader
Saad Hariri, Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)/Druze leader
Walid Jumblatt, and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, all

March 14 leaders. Slim was especially critical of Hariri's
long absences outside of Lebanon during the summer months and
what he called "lack of communication" between Qoreitem
(Hariri's residence) and many groups, including independent
Shia.


4. (C) Although not a politician himself, Slim believed that
Shia independents would have an opportunity to win
parliamentary seats in key districts in the 2009 elections.
He predicted that with the proper support and focused effort,
independent Shia candidates, and their allies, could win two
seats in Baabda, one in Zahle, two in West Bekaa, and one
seat in Jbeil. Slim and Schei are planning to lead a
conference in Berlin in November or December, through the
Aspen Institute-Berlin if funding is secured, to discuss why
independent candidates have had difficulty winning in past
elections and how to boost support for them among voters in
difficult regions.


5. (C) Slim said the independent Shia still have considerable
"homework" to do. However, he was optimistic about garnering
more support for independent Shia after an iftar he plans to
host for respected cleric Sayyed Ali al-Amine, former Mufti
of South Lebanon, who opposes Hizballah and was removed from
his position earlier this year. Slim would also like to
organize several other iftars, in partnership with local Shia
leaders in several districts, including in the Bekaa, the
south, and Dahiyeh, if funding is secured. Schei noted Hayya
Bina is considering other "culturally-appropriate" projects
in the lead-up to the 2009 elections to bolster support for
independent Shia candidates. However, Slim bluntly stated
his personal belief that moderates would be better served if
the 2009 elections were postponed, calling them "a big risk"
in view of Hizballah's strength.

SLIM: SHAMSEDDINE IN
A UNIQUE POSITION
--------------


6. (C) Slim said that following the formation of the cabinet

BEIRUT 00001326 002 OF 003


on July 11, there was tension between former MP Duraid Yaghi,
an independent Shia and member of Walid Jumblatt's party, and
Jumblatt because Jumblatt had supported the appointment of
independent Shia scholar Ibrahim Shamseddine as Minister of
Administrative Reform. According to Slim, he mediated
between Yaghi and Jumblatt and enabled a reconciliation
between the two. Slim said he would like Yaghi to run for a
parliamentary seat in 2009.


7. (C) Shamseddine, Slim said, is in a unique position as the
only independent Shia representative in the cabinet. Slim
said he had encouraged Shamseddine in a recent meeting to
take advantage of his position to visit all parts of the
country, including Hizballah-dominated areas, and to begin
laying the groundwork for others like him. Slim assessed
that Shamseddine would need to be pushed to get out, but he
said Shamseddine had promised to do his best.

BRIDGING THE GAP
TO IRAQI SHIA
--------------


8. (C) In a more positive tone, Slim praised Saad Hariri's
July visit to Iraq. Slim called the visit a "bridge" between
Lebanon and Iraq. He was especially impressed by Hariri's
meeting with Iraqi Shia cleric Ali Al-Sistani in Najaf. Slim
reported that he would like Hariri to follow up his meetings
in Iraq with outreach to Lebanon's Shia community. (Note:
This had been discussed at Qoreitem, but Hariri's August
travel to Europe had interrupted any action. End note.)

SUMMER CAMPS FACE HARASSMENT;
HIZBALLAH ATTEMPTS TO ASSERT
CONTROL IN THE BEKAA
--------------


9. (C) Schei shared with the Ambassador the details of two
incidents involving Hizballah that occurred during the final
days of summer camps sponsored by Hayya Bina, in conjunction
with USAID's Office of Transition Initiatives (USAID/OTI).
In Yammouneh, local Hizballah party members placed Hizballah
flags at the entrance of the camp and on electricity poles
along the street facing the camp. Hizballah members claimed
their action was not directed against the camp, but rather
against the mayor and his family, whom Hizballah considers to
be very pro-American according to the mayor's son-in-law
Mohamed Chreif. Hizballah's action caused a heated
altercation, with some pushing and shoving, between members
of Chreif's family and Hizballah members.


10. (C) Although a majority of camp participants stayed out
of the fray, the local NGO partner managing the grant, Dar Al
Wasia, confronted Hizballah and defended the organization's
right to organize USAID/OTI-branded activities, Chreif said.
To prevent further escalation, Dar Al Wasia threatened to
close down the camp if the Hizballah flags were not removed.
Ultimately, a compromise was reached whereby Hizballah
removed its flags from the camp entrance, but kept the others
along the public street, and the camp continued as planned
without further incident.


11. (C) In Chamounstar, camp officials learned on the day of
a planned photo exhibition at the camp that many families in
the surrounding neighborhood had received telephone calls
from Hizballah saying the event had been canceled. According
to Schei, camp organizers made a round of calls to families
stating that the event was scheduled as planned and the
turnout improved.


12. (C) The Ambassador said she was sorry to hear of the
disruptions caused to the camps, but was gratified to know
that the events were able to continue. When asked if the
USAID/OTI branding was a problem for Hayya Bina, Slim said
no. In fact, Hayya Bina has held events in partnership with
MEPI, the Embassy's Public Diplomacy section, and with a
MEPI-funded partner (the International Republican Institute)
on several occasions without incident.

WHAT'S MIKATI UP

BEIRUT 00001326 003 OF 003


TO IN TRIPOLI?
--------------


13. (C) Slim called the recent violence in Tripoli worrying.
He alleged rival Sunni and Alawite factions are being funded
by outside sources and was not optimistic that tensions would
ease anytime soon. Slim, who lives in Dahiyeh, a
Hizballah-dominated southern Beirut suburb, said he
personally knew of young Hizballah members and other
militia-types who were traveling to Tripoli regularly to
train fighters there. In addition, Slim believed that former
Prime Minister Najib Mikati was involved with funding some of
the armed groups.


14. (C) Mikati, Slim said, is positioning himself as an
alternative to Saad Hariri. Not only is Mikati allegedly
funneling money to armed groups, according to Slim, he is
also undertaking social outreach initiatives, such as
establishing mobile clinics to garner support. Slim
speculated that Mikati and recently resigned, independent
Shia MP Hussein Husseini were partnering up to improve
Husseini's chances of joining a new government as Prime
Minister if the opposition wins the majority in the 2009
elections.


15. (C) Slim said recent articles in the pan-Arab newspaper
Al-Hayyat that were critical of Saad Hariri were calling
Hariri's national leadership into question. Slim expressed
concern that Hariri's image and influence in Tripoli were
diminishing, while Mikati's and former Prime Minister and
opposition supporter Omar Karami's images were on the rise.
Slim said he was not personally confident efforts by Hariri's
Future Movement would have much impact. (Note: Slim's
comments came one day before Hariri made a three-day surprise
visit to Tripoli. End note.)

COMMENT
--------------


16. (C) Slim is a regular contact of the embassy in the
independent Shia community. His concerns about the
possibilities of success for moderate candidates, including
independent Shia and their March 14 allies, are troubling,
but not unfounded. On the issue of branding, we will need to
assess carefully the risk-return tradeoff of how we position
U.S. assistance during the electoral period as we move
forward.
SISON