LEBANON: MARCH 14 LEADERS AGREE TO RUN UNIFIED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001312

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, PM/FO
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK, WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/YERGER/MCDERMOTT/RAMCHAND

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MARCH 14 LEADERS AGREE TO RUN UNIFIED
LISTS IN ELECTIONS

REF: BEIRUT 1296

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) March 14 leaders, meeting as a group for the first
time since August 3, agreed to run unified lists in the
spring 2009 elections, a major step forward for a coalition
whose leaders have found it difficult to look above partisan
interests to the greater goal of maintaining the
parliamentary majority. Participants described the meeting
in positive terms, with all agreeing on the importance of
putting on a unified front. Discussion of individual
candidacies was deferred to smaller, follow-up committees.
After the meeting, the leaders issued a statement condemning
what they viewed as Syrian President Asad's attempted
encroachments on Lebanese sovereignty. End summary.


2. (C) March 14 leaders met the evening of September 4 at
majority leader Saad Hariri's Qoreitem residence, their first
meeting since August 3. Attendees included Hariri, Lebanese
Forces leader Samir Geagea, Progressive Socialist Party
leader Walid Jumblatt, former President and Kateab leader
Amine Gemayel, National Liberal Party leader Dory Chamoun,
Ministers Mohamad Chatah, Ghazi Aridi, Wael Abu Faour,
Mohamad Safadi, and MPs Nayla Mouawad, Boutros Harb, Solange
Gemayel, Marwan Hamadeh, Elias Atallah, Michel Pharaon,
Antoine Zahra, Samir Franjieh, Setrida Geagea, George Adwan,
former MPs Ghattas Khoury, Camille Ziadeh, (and March 14 SYG)
Fares Suaid, and Hariri advisor and cousin Nader Hariri.


3. (C) Druze MP and Minister of State Wael Abu Four told
Pol/Econ Chief September 5 that the meeting was "good."
According to Abu Four, the leaders (especially Druze leader
Walid Jumblatt, Kateab leader Amine Gemayel, and Lebanese
Forces leader Samir Geagea) discussed how to consolidate
their ranks in the run-up to the 2009 parliamentary
elections, agreeing to run as a unified coalition and on the
importance of giving the impression of coalition unity. They
also agreed that the next step was to look at the electoral
map to determine which candidates to run in the elections.
The leaders asked March 14 SYG Fares Suaid to follow up with
smaller committee meetings. The leaders themselves will meet
every two weeks, and March 14 ministers will hold a separate
meeting prior to each cabinet session to coordinate their
positions, Abu Four said.


4. (C) Hariri advisor Ghattas Khoury also described the
atmosphere as good, noting that no one made any provocative
remarks and Druze leader and MP Walid Jumblatt was "calm."
(Note: Asked whether the leaders discussed the appointment
of the next G-2 Intelligence Director, Abu Four relayed that
Jumblatt and Hariri had held a tete-a-tete on the issue, but
was unable to provide further information. End note.) The
intention of the March 14 statement issued following the
meeting (text provided in paragraph 11, below) was to
mobilize March 14 supporters, he said.


5. (C) Nader Hariri told Pol/Econ Chief September 4 that the
meeting was "very good" and made progress, adding that, "We
are now all on one team." Jumblatt, calling March 14 a
"rock" that was working together, was "great," Nader said
enthusiastically. He added, however, that Jumblatt was
preaching to the converted. Admitting that there were still
traces of "minor inter-Christian problems" following the
debate over cabinet formation, Nader said they were "on the
verge of being contained." For example, MP Nayla Mouawad
still had problems with MPs Samir Franjieh and Mansour LeBon,
he said, and only came for the "photo opp." Nader was quick
to deny, however, any lingering problems with Ghattas Khoury.
(Note: Khoury had asked us for suggestions on whom to invite
to his August 29 dinner in honor of visiting NEA DAS David
Hale, adding, "Anyone but Nayla!" End note.).


6. (C) Elie Khoury, advisor to Samir Geagea, confirmed that
the two main issues addressed were the elections and the

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violence in north Lebanon, and that the leaders agreed to run
in the elections in full harmony. "We will stick together,"
he said, despite rumors of differences within March 14. As
for the north, Khoury warned that some people were
exaggerating the issue of extremists for political gains.


7. (C) National Liberal Party leader Dory Chamoun called the
meeting excellent and very cordial. Some attendees tried to
raise the issue of candidacies for the parliamentary
elections, he reported, but the issue was "closed."


8. (C) Zghorta MP Nayla Mouawad also called the meeting good,
adding that it was useful in overcoming the misunderstandings
that resulted from cabinet formation. (Note: Mouawad lost
her cabinet seat in the shuffle -- especially for Christian
seats -- that has left bitter feelings among March 14
Christians. End note.) Mouawad reaffirmed that the leaders
did not delve into the details of parliamentary candidacies,
and that they agreed to form unified electoral lists in all
the districts. Although she saw March 14's popularity as
increasing, March 14 still needed to get its act together.
Commenting on Hizballah's August 28 attack on a Lebanese
Armed Forces (LAF) helicopter (reftel),Mouawad said that the
mother of the LAF officer killed in the attack removed
pictures from her home of Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah and
his ally, Free Patriotic Movement Michel Aoun, after the
incident.


9. (C) March 14 SYG Fares Souaid said the March 14 leaders
opened supported the March 14 General Secretariat and agreed
to run as a unified coalition in the elections. He also
praised the statement issued following the meeting condemning
President Asad's statements on Lebanon.


10. (C) Tripoli MP Mosbah Ahdab did not attend the meeting,
calling March 14 meetings "useless and not producing anything
new." "I am not making any public criticisms of March 14,
but I will not attend meetings anymore, because I do not know
how decisions are made and I am not ready to bear the
consequences for something I was not involved in," he said.
(Note: Although he has not publicly left March 14, as did
National Bloc leader Carlos Edde, Ahdab has been at odds with
fellow Sunni leader Saad Hariri following Hariri's decision
not to include him in the cabinet. Hariri reportedly told
Ahdab he would rather see him in the next cabinet, rather
than the current short-lived cabinet. Ahdab dismissed this
argument since Hariri then went on to advocate Hariri advisor
Ghattas Khoury for one of the Christian cabinet seats -- a
move that was eventually opposed by other March 14 Christians
who argued Khoury, as a member of Hariri's Future Movement,
had no political weight with March 14 Christians. End note.)


11. (U) Unofficial Embassy translation of the March 14
statement follows:

Begin text.

First: President Asad's remark asking President Sleiman to
send the LAF to the north is a flagrant interference in
Lebanese domestic affairs, which also indicates that Syria
does not acknowledge Lebanon's sovereignty and independence.
Additionally, it is an insult to the president himself and
the presidential office.

Second: The Syrian President's call on Lebanon to enter
peace negotiations with Israel also falls within the
framework of interference in Lebanon's domestic affairs,
which we reject; it also torpedoed the Taif Agreement, which
clearly stated Lebanon's commitment to an armistice agreement
with Israel. Therefore, all this talk is totally rejected.
The Lebanese national interest is decided upon by the
Lebanese political authority that is represented by the
Council of Ministers and not by decisions made by any party
in the near or far region, especially since the unwavering
Lebanese position is its commitment to the Arab Initiative.
Lebanon will be the last Arab state to sign a settlement
(sic) agreement with Israel after regaining all the Arab
rights.


BEIRUT 00001312 003 OF 003


Third: March 14 rejects all pressures made on the free and
independent media in Lebanon, notably the pressure that was
exerted on L'Orient le Jour, which is considered an objective
and free forum the Lebanese society is proud of. End text.

COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) Our constant hammering -- along with that of our
MEPI-sponsored NGO partners -- appears to be paying
dividends, albeit none too soon. The key now will be to
maintain the momentum, and not allow lingering resentments --
especially Christian-Christian -- from the cabinet formation
to flare up again in the debates over which blocs' candidates
will run in each district. We will continue to urge our
March 14 contacts to keep their eye on the big picture -- a
March 14 parliamentary victory -- rather than individual
victories, but overcoming Lebanon's feudal political system,
in which all politics is local, is bound to be a rocky road.
End comment.
SISON