LEBANON: DEFENSE MINISTER MURR DISCUSSES URGENCY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001302

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR A/S HOOK AND PDAS WARLICK
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MCDERMOTT
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER
OSD FOR EDELMAN/LONG/STRAUB/DALTON
JOINT STAFF FOR RANK/GARAVANTA
CENTCOM FOR ALLARDICE/MACLEAN/PADDOCK
DIA FOR LARSON/CRONIN/KRAUSE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR MCAP MARR IR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: DEFENSE MINISTER MURR DISCUSSES URGENCY
OF NEEDS FOR LEBANESE ARMED FORCES

REF: BEIRUT 1242

BEIRUT 00001302 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In an August 27 meeting, Defense Minister Elias Murr
said the outcome of elections in 2009 will depend on the
Christian vote. It is critical that the current majority be
able to show results to Christian voters. Specifically, the
people must perceive that Murr's relationship with the United
States is delivering tangible results. The centerpiece of
this tangible evidence will be approval for attack
helicopters for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF),he
emphasized. Murr will go to Saudi Arabia to request 500
million dollars to pay for attack helicopters and other
military equipment for the LAF once he has President
Sleiman's approval for the mission and sees a "green light"
from the U.S. Congress for the equipment; he believes he
already has approval from the U.S. Administration. He
reiterated that his choice for LAF Commander was BG Jean
Kahwagi (whom the cabinet appointed on August 29). Murr said
he will delay his planned October trip to Washington. End
Summary.


2. (SBU) During a one-day visit to Lebanon on August 27,
Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security
Affairs (OSDP-ISA) Mary Beth Long and Assistant Secretary of
Defense for Special Operations, Low Intensity Conflict and
Interdependent Capabilities (OSDP-SOLICIC) Michael Vickers
met with Lebanese Minister of Defense Elias Murr at his home
in Rabieh. Long and Vickers were accompanied by Major
General Robert Allardice, CENTCOM J-5; Colonel Dave Huggins,
ARCENT Commander Representative; Colonel Tom Henwood, ASD
Long's Military Assistant; Lieutenant Colonel Bob Paddock,
CENTCOM Lebanon Desk Officer; Commander Wyman Howard SOLICIC
Desk Officer; and Melissa Dalton, OSD Lebanon Desk Officer.
Also in attendance were Ambassador, NEA Deputy Assistant
Secretary David Hale, and Defense Attache Lieutenant Colonel
David Alley.

MURR POSTPONES TRIP TO WASHINGTON,
DOES NOT WANT TO HINDER SLEIMAN'S VISIT
--------------


3. (C) Defense Minister Murr had previously indicated he
would travel to Washington, DC during the week of 9 October.
However, he now needed to postpone the trip for two reasons:
First, he does not want to be seen as going behind President
Sleiman to close any deals for equipment. (Note: Sleiman is
currently scheduled to visit Washington on September 25. End
Note.) Second, Murr thinks he should stay in Lebanon as the
entire upper echelons of the LAF will be in transition during
this same time period.


4. (C) Murr emphasized the importance of high-level Lebanese
visits to Washington,DC and lamented the lack of recent
visits. "We need to break this freeze (on visits) we have at
the Presidential level," he said. He specifically wants to
see a "normal visit, with normal meetings and normal
receptions" in Washington, DC. By Murr's estimation, Sleiman
should not worry about Hizballah's possible reaction that
such a visit shows too much closeness to the U.S. when
Hizballah's ally Syria is currently negotiating with Israel.

WE ARE LOSING THE BATTLE OF PERCEPTION;
PERCEPTION IS MORE IMPORTANT RIGHT NOW
--------------


5. (C) According to Murr, the perception of U.S. military
assistance to Lebanon is not as good as it should be; "the
reality is actually much better than the perception." Murr
assesses that his expectations for U.S. assistance are at the

BEIRUT 00001302 002 OF 003


appropriate level while other political leaders say that the
USG is not doing enough. Their common criticism, according to
Murr, is that the U.S. pushes him in front of Hizbullah but
does not give him the cards to play against Hizballah. Even
with these criticisms, Murr acknowledged that, "the U.S.
cannot come and do Saad's job to push the ISF to intervene."
(Note: This was a swipe at Future Movement Leader Saad
Hariri's lack of action during the May 2008 clashes in west
Beirut, when Saad reportedly waited forty-eight hours before
issuing any orders, and then did so only feebly. End Note.)

THE NEXT ELECTIONS WILL BE DECIDED BY CHRISTIANS;
MARGIN WILL BE TWO OR THREE DEPUTIES
--------------


6. (C) Murr underlined for ASD Long and the U.S. delegation
the importance of the parliamentary elections in 2009. This
election, according to Murr, will put Lebanon and the United
States in a very bad position if the current majority is not
returned to power. "We will give Iran, through Hizbullah,
many years in power because they have the systems and the
means to expand their influence if they win the majority,"
said Murr.


7. (C) As others consistently tell us, Murr said the real
battleground during the next elections will be in the
Christian districts. While the Shia and Sunni areas will,
for the most part, vote with their co-religionists, Murr
expects deep divisions with in the Christian vote. It is
these divisions that will result in a two or three deputy
margin of victory in the upcoming elections. The 128-seat
parliament will see "a split of 65-63, or 62-66," said Murr.
For this reason, the eight deputies in the predominantly
Christian Metn district will decide the outcome of the
election in Murr's estimation. (Note: The Metn is Murr's
district. Murr's statment may be self-serving for the
interests of Murr and his father, a longtime political
"godfather" in the Metn district, but his analysis also is
plausible. End Note.) The Christians in this area must know
that the U.S. is backing up the current majority with more
than just statements, Murr argued.

ATTACK HELICOPTERS ARE IMPORTANT
TO ENSURE VICTORY IN NEXT ELECTION
--------------


8. (C) "People like power and people like a winner," said
Murr. The various groups in Lebanon must feel that Murr's
group is backed up with concrete evidence. Such evidence
would be even more important than financial backing. "Our
common project is attack helicopters. I saw that many of
(the ones offered) were not even armed like our Gazelles.
People want to see the missiles. They want to see Cobras,"
said Murr. Murr said he does not consider the timing of the
delivery as important as the announcement that they will be
delivered to the LAF. "The agreement from Congress and the
Administration is more important than the reality of getting
them (to Beirut) between now and the 2009 elections," said
Murr.


9. (C) Murr explained that a new red line is emerging in the
Christian community. The Christians must now choose between
a State of Lebanon or a State of Iran and Hizbullah as the
elections draw nigh. This is the headline that must be
trumpeted in the Christian areas, according to Murr. "When
(the Christians) have to choose between the LAF and
Hizballah, they have to know that the LAF is backed by the
U.S. with both material and technical support," said Murr.
It is this support that will shape the contours of the
political discourse of the next elections. Murr said that in
the back of their minds, the Christians are cognizant of
Hamas' activities and what a Hizballah victory could portend,
especially given the deep financial and military support
Hizballah receives from Iran. Indeed, people like a winner,

BEIRUT 00001302 003 OF 003


and will move into the presumptive winner's constellation if
victory seems imminent, according to Murr.


10. (C) "We only have two choices," Murr continued, "We must
win, or we must win. We don't need much to do this." Murr
said his relationship with the U.S. is delivering results
now; however, he must maintain this perception among the
people until he gets through the elections. "Perception is
reality now. It is another problem to arrive to reality after
the elections, but we must use this perception until we get
through the elections," said Murr.

I WILL GET THE MONEY FROM SAUDI ARABIA
ONCE CONGRESS GIVES THE GREEN LIGHT
--------------


11. (C) Murr said he was waiting to go to Saudi Arabia for
two reasons: one, he wanted the Lebanese government to be
formed and for President Sleiman to concur with the
diplomatic mission; two, he wants to have a "green light"
from the USG. Murr believes he has both at this time, but
wants to ensure there will be no problems from the USG, and
particularly from Congress.

NEW COMMANDER WILL BE APPOINTED
AT CABINET MEETING THIS FRIDAY
--------------


12. (C) Murr reported that the cabinet would meet on Friday,
August 29 to select the next LAF Commander. (Note: Cabinet
approved Jean Kahwagi, whom Murr supported, on August 29.
End note.) This is the first time that Murr has the occasion
to have so much input concerning officer slating throughout
the Army. Murr intends to present the candidates for LAF
Commander to the cabinet based solely on their military
qualifications and nothing to do with their political
affiliations. Murr said he would present ten names to the
Cabinet. Murr still believes that BG Jean Kahwagi is the
best candidate for the job as he has been trained in the
United States under the International Military Education and
Training Program as well as in Italy and Germany.


13. (C) Murr said he will have to closely manage Kahwagi
during the first year because Kahwagi does not know anything
about politics. In fact, Murr believes there will be problems
changing his image among some people. "Sometimes you have to
use visual flight rules, sometimes you have to follow the
instruments," quipped Murr, a reference to both general and
technical mentoring that will be required on the political
fronts. (Note: Murr is very comfortable with Kahwagi on both
the technical and political levels when it comes to USG
programs. "He is hated by all political sides, but Aoun
cannot veto him," said Murr. Kahwagi's battalion was nearly
erased by a Syrian Special Forces battalion that attacked
then-President Aoun in the Baabda Presidential Palace in

1989. Kahwagi lost 300 men in this battle while the Syrian
Battalion suffered 750 killed. Aoun and his family safely
escaped this dangerous situation because of Kahwagi's
efforts. End Note.)


14. (C) Murr assessed that the opposition to Kahwagi by
Progressive Socialist Party Leader Walid Jumblatt, a March 14
stalwart, is part of Jumblatt's initiative to achieve some
level of rapprochment with Hizballah. Murr said that while
negotiations regarding the LAF commander were ongoing,
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Shia ally of Hizballah,
told Murr "You are going to nominate someone that is
anti-Hizballah, so I am going to be with you." In the
cabinet vote on Kawhagi, Berri's and Hizballah's deputies
expressed no reservations and joined the consensus approving
him for the position.


15. (C) Assistant Secretary Long has cleared this cable.
SISON