LEBANON: NEA DAS HALE URGES THAT PRESIDENT SLEIMAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001286

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE MARR MOPS SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: NEA DAS HALE URGES THAT PRESIDENT SLEIMAN
VISIT WASHINGTON

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) NEA DAS David Hale, accompanied by DCM and Poloffs,
stressed to two of President Michel Sleiman's senior staff
and an unofficial advisor the importance of Sleiman visiting
Washington before or after his address to the UNGA in
September. For their part, the advisors expressed concerns
about regional tensions, stressed the need to strengthen the
army, and suggested varying approaches to the 2009
parliamentary elections. End summary.

ATTACKS AGAINST ARMY,
APPOINTMENT OF ARMY COMMANDER
SET STAGE FOR HALE VISIT
--------------


2. (C) During DAS Hale's August 26 - 31 visit to Lebanon, he
reaffirmed U.S. support to Lebanon, including expanding
military training and equipment assistance. He communicated
to his interlocutors U.S. concern regarding the flow of
weapons to Hizballah and the need for full implementation of
UNSCR 1701. In addition, he solicited suggestions from
Lebanese moderates on how the U.S. could be of assistance in
the run-up to the 2009 parliamentary elections.

NAZEM KHOURY,
POLITICAL ADVISOR
--------------


3. (C) Nazem Khoury, political advisor and a close personal
friend of President Sleiman now on Sleiman's staff, told DAS
Hale that he had advised Sleiman it was important to visit
Washington. However, Khoury expressed concern that Sleiman
is in a delicate position. For the U.S. visit to be
successful, Sleiman could not be "cornered," he said.


4. (C) Khoury characterized Lebanon as the weakest state in
the region. He complained that Lebanon has been used as the
instrument of others, but has received no benefit. Khoury
said his personal opinion was that a strong army is important
to the future of Lebanon and requested assistance. While not
asking for missiles, he said, the LAF needs a sufficient and
appropriate supply of weapons to pose a threat to Hizballah
and others.


5. (C) On the elections, Khoury believed the majority March
14 coalition needs to be "very clever" in its approach. He
said March 14 requires organization and to needs to
re-energize Otherwise, he predicted, the opposition would
win under the present circumstances. DAS Hale called
Khoury's prediction troubling; and, said the international
community needs to think clearly about what it can do to
assist moderates in the 2009 elections. He informed Khoury
that the U.S. is willing to help in any way that is
productive to ensure free and transparent elections.

NAJI ABI ASSI, DIPLOMATIC
AND POLITICAL ADVISOR
--------------


6. (C) Naji Abi Assi, Diplomatic and Political Advisor to
President Sleiman, told DAS Hale on August 28, that he
worried an increase in regional tensions, such as between
Israel and Iran, would have a direct effect on Lebanon more
so than Lebanon's parliamentary elections or other domestic
issues. He also called potential for violence between Hamas
and Fatah in the West Bank worrisome if it were to incite
violence in Lebanon's Palestinian camps. Abi Assi said the
GOL is concerned about its relations with Saudi Arabia and
Syria, and is watching closely U.S. relations with Syria. He
suggested progress on resolving the issue of Sheba'a Farms
could reduce factional tensions in Lebanon.


7. (C) Abi Assi argued it was not enough to only talk with

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the leaders of the moderate political parties, but to take
care that perceptions -- such as the perception that the U.S.
did nothing to help Georgia in its conflict with Russia -- do
not become reality. Abi Assi said there is also a perception
that the U.S. would tacitly accept Syrian troops returning to
Lebanon to quell violence in Tripoli, a perception which, he
said, would negatively impact the outcome of the elections
for the government. DAS Hale said while the U.S. had not
intervened militarily in the Georgia-Russia conflict, there
were several steps being taken bilaterally and through NATO
to show U.S. disapproval and dissatisfaction to Russia for
its actions. He also expressed concern about ongoing
violence in Tripoli and advised Lebanese moderate factions
increase their outreach there to counter an apparent shift to
more extreme thinking by some among the electorate.
Furthermore, DAS Hale explained that U.S. engagement with
Syria remains limited until Syria shows it is serious about
stemming the flow of weapons across its borders and showing
mutual respect for Lebanon, as well as ending objectionable
support for terrorists operating from Iraq to Israel.


8. (C) Abi Assi said he does not know his new boss Sleiman
well. He called Sleiman moderate, neutral and positive. Abi
Assi assessed the relationship between Sleiman, Prime
Minister Fouad Siniora, and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri
as a good one and not tense. However, he said everyone is
watching Sleiman, but no one is giving him any real political
support. Abi Assi believed it was important for Sleiman to
visit Washington in September and said that he would
accompany him.

MICHEL KHOURY,
UNOFFICIAL ADVISOR?
--------------


9. (C) On August 30, DAS Hale met with Sheikh Michel Khoury,
a prominent businessman and son of Lebanon's first President,
who said that President Sleiman consults with him often.
Khoury called Sleiman brave and said Sleiman is trying to do
his best, although his power is minimal. Khoury advocated
strong U.S. support to Sleiman personally, to strengthen his
role as an arbitrator between the government's factions.


10. (C) Khoury said that at 82 years old, his own health is
better than the health of the Lebanon. He pessimistically
said that Lebanon had moved beyond a point where the Lebanese
could resolve their own problems. However, he believed that
a small window of opportunity exists due to the election of
President Sleiman, the upcoming parliamentary elections in
2009, and the participation of State Minister Nassib Lahoud,
Prime Minister Siniora, and Minister of Finance Mohammad
Chatah in government. However, he warned that these
ministers are surrounded by others who are either too weak or
too hostile to significantly improve the political situation.
The National Dialogue, in Khoury's opinion, would have
little impact.


11. (C) The most important assistance the U.S. could provide,
Khoury said, would be to strengthen the LAF. He noted that
morale among the LAF is low and Khoury was concerned that
confessional ties within the army were stronger than
nationalistic sentiment. Khoury argued that assistance to
the LAF and Sleiman should be substantial enough to counter
Hizballah's arguments to maintain "the resistance." DAS Hale
agreed with Khoury that the LAF is an important institution
that needs to be bolstered. To this end, he said, the U.S.
is preparing to make decisions about new equipment and
training assistance to the LAF that could be delivered over
the short- and long-term.


12. (C) In addition, Khoury suggested the U.S. provide
support, openly or secretly, to the March 14 coalition. He
believed Sleiman and March 14 could gain greater
representation in Keserwan, the Metn, Beirut, and, to a
certain extent, Zahle districts if it attracts enough
Christian votes. The Armenian vote will also be key, he
said. Khoury characterized Sunni and March 14 leader Saad
Hariri as popular, but said March 14 lacks organization. DAS

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Hale said he had a good meeting with the March 14 secretariat
on August 28 and was encouraged by the progress in their
organization. However, he cautioned March 14 leaders of the
necessity of putting national interest ahead of personal
interest in the run-up to the 2009 elections. Khoury also
called Saudi financial support to Hariri no match for Iranian
financial support to Hizballah and Free Patriotic Movement
leader Michel Aoun. Khoury noted that he maintains good
relations with Sleiman and Hariri and offered to help in any
way that he could.


13. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this message.

SISON