LEBANON: JUMBLATT DESCRIBES TO DAS HALE MARCH 14'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001283

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK AND PDAS WARLICK
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/YERGER/MCDERMOTT/RAMCHAND

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: JUMBLATT DESCRIBES TO DAS HALE MARCH 14'S
DISUNITY, WORRIES ABOUT WEAK ARMY

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and his advisors told NEA
DAS David Hale that March 14 was united, before giving
multiple examples of disagreements among the bloc's party
leaders. He had little confidence that the National Dialogue
would begin until after Ramadan and perhaps even Ashura. He
saw no wedge in the relationship between Michel Aoun and
Hizballah.


2. (C) Jumblatt worried that domestic Sunni as well as
foreign funding for Salafist groups would lead to more
intense violence in Tripoli in north Lebanon. He expressed
concerns about the capabilities of the army, and suggested
there was little chance it could be successful in stopping
the arms flow to Hizballah across the Syrian border.
Jumblatt also said that another Israeli military "adventure"
in Lebanon would not work. End summary.

MARCH 14 UNITY? MAYBE NOT;
NATIONAL DIALOGUE STALLED
--------------


3. (C) Visiting NEA DAS David Hale, accompanied by
Ambassador, NEA/ELA Lebanon Desk Officer, and PolOffs had
lunch with Walid Jumblatt, MP Marwan Hamadeh, Minister of
State Wael Abou Faour, and MP Henri Helou on August 28. DAS
Hale asked Jumblatt if March 14 leaders were united in their
approach to the spring 2009 parliamentary elections.
Jumblatt replied quickly, "We are united," and then paused,
"...but it is important to study carefully the nominees we
put forward, especially in Christian areas. We need serious
people there, not cronies of Amine and Samir," he said,
referring to Kataeb leader Amine Gemayel and Lebanese Forces
leader Samir Geagea. Jumblatt said he had met recently with
Geagea to work out how they two would divide seats in certain
districts, but he said Geagea was upset with Gemayel for
insisting on running his son Sami (who is in his 20s) for a
seat, and disagreed with him on candidates in several
districts. Jumblatt also explained that Kataeb had lost
elections in the past by not spending enough money on them.
"Amine has two problems," he said, "his son and his
cheapness. To be a miser is a sickness."


4. (C) Jumblatt also pointed to the selection of a new
commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) as a source of
tension in March 14. He said sarcastically that he had
spoken to Saad Hariri by telephone and they had discussed
"this great general who will lead us to victory." Jumblatt
explained that he had supported the nomination of Georges
Khoury, the current G-2 Director of Military Intelligence,
for the commander slot. "I know him," he said. "He was
decent to me. But then all my partners (Hariri) came up with
(General Jean) Kahwagi behind my back." Jumblatt
acknowledged that Kahwagi would become the new LAF commander,
but said he would not vote for him or support him. (Note:
The Cabinet approved Kahwagi's appointment August 29.
Jumblatt's two ministers expressed "reservations" on the
appointment, as did Geagea's. End note.)


5. (C) Jumblatt said that no Lebanese politicians, either
from March 14 or the opposition, seemed in a hurry to begin
the National Dialogue, and that he did not expect it to begin
until after Ramadan, and perhaps even after the Shia holiday
Ashura, which would be in January. Jumblatt advisor and
former Telecom Minister Marwan Hamadeh said that opposition
attempts to expand the agenda for the Dialogue amounted to
canceling the Council of Ministers: "What is the cabinet for
if everything is discussed in the National Dialogue?" he
asked.


6. (C) Looking at the opposition, Jumblatt thought the
alliance between Michel Aoun and Hizballah was permanent.
DAS Hale asked if Aoun's Maronite supporters could not be
convinced he is wrong. Hamadeh answered that in theory all
the Maronites are with March 14, but they are blinded by
Aoun. Jumblatt added a historical perspective: "It will not

BEIRUT 00001283 002 OF 002


be the first time a Christian leader in Lebanon leads
Christians to destruction. Think of the Gemayels, of Geagea."

A DANGEROUS GAME IN TRIPOLI
--------------


7. (C) DAS Hale brought up the recent violence in Tripoli in
north Lebanon, and asked if Jumblatt had heard anything about
where funding for Salafist groups there was coming from. He
stressed that attempting to buy the allegiance of such groups
was dangerous. Jumblatt said he knew that several Sunni
politicians were funding these groups, including Saad Hariri,
Najib Mikati, and Mohammed Safadi, as well as foreigners. He
said he too was concerned, since the Alawite groups in the
north, with whom the Sunni groups have clashed, are supported
by Syria. "We should not give a pretext to Syria by funding
Salafis," said Jumblatt, and he added that he had told
visiting Egyptian FM Ahmed Aboul Gheit that outsiders should
stop funding them as well.

LAF SCATTERED,
ISRAELIS ALARMED
--------------


8. (C) Jumblatt mentioned that there was discussion of
moving a brigade of LAF soldiers from the south to the north
to secure Tripoli and the surrounding areas, but he worried
this would create a vacuum in the south, where troops already
have only limited control because of Hizballah's presence.
He said UNIFIL Commander Graziano was upset at the
suggestion.


9. (C) DAS Hale asked Jumblatt how the GOL and LAF could
contribute to stopping the flow of arms to Hizballah across
the Syrian border. "Convince the Syrians," he replied.
Hamadeh agreed, saying that the Lebanese army cannot even
control feuds between the Lebanese, much less stop Syrian or
Hizballah smugglers. As for UN troops, Hamadeh referred to
UNIFIL as a "moral instrument" in the south, but said, "they
are basically tourists in the area."


10. (C) Hale told Jumblatt and his advisors Israeli civilian
and military officials alike are alarmed by Hizballah's
rearming and the perception of creeping Hizballah control
over the state. He said the Israelis saw no effort to
implement UNSCR 1701, and were upset by the recent
ministerial statement's support for "resistance" to Israel.
Jumblatt replied, "They need to know that another military
adventure will lead nowhere. The weapons come from Iran
through Syria. You tell me what they should do."


11. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this cable.

SISON