LEBANON: TALKING, QUIETLY, OF MARONITE PATRIARCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001228

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2018
TAGS: SOCI SCUL KIRF PGOV LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: TALKING, QUIETLY, OF MARONITE PATRIARCH
SUCCESSION

REF: A. BEIRUT 577

B. BEIRUT 1187

BEIRUT 00001228 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (U) Cardinal Mar Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir, the Lebanese
Maronite Patriarch, turned 88 in May and there are quiet
discussions about who will succeed him in this religiously
and politically significant position. Following our report
on the organization of the Maronite church (Ref A),this
report delves into Sfeir's role in Lebanese politics and the
current thinking on candidates to replace him. End summary.

SFEIR: THE PATRIARCH
--------------


2. (SBU) Some referred to Sfeir's selection as a "surprise"
when he was chosen in 1986 to succeed Cardinal Anthony Peter
Khoraish as Maronite Patriarch. But Sfeir's previous
positions in the Maronite clergy suggest he was
well-positioned to assume the role as head of the Maronite
church. From 1961 until he was selected as the Patriarch,
Sfeir was part of the Patriarch's inner circle at Bkirke, the
seat of the Patriarchate. During the five year period prior
to assuming that position, Sfeir served as the Secretary for
the Patriarchate.

3. (SBU) Patriarch Sfeir has played an influential role in
Lebanese politics, as is the tradition of his predecessors,
and is consulted daily by a myriad of political figures from
all confessions, but particularly Maronite Christians. He
has long pushed publicly for an independent Lebanon, starting
with his appeals to the French in the 1940s. During the
civil war, he opposed the Syrian presence in Lebanon. A
vocal supporter of all UN Security Council resolutions, Sfeir
is often in agreement with U.S. policy in Lebanon. During
the time when the parliament was closed and sessions were
scheduled to elect a president (most of which were canceled),
Sfeir routinely urged all parliamentarians to attend. He
criticized "those who do not want a president and who are
obstructing presidential elections" and also attacked
Hizballah by saying, "There should be no two-state rule for
Lebanon."


4. (SBU) Sfeir does not always relish his political role,
since his public involvement in resolving political issues
has not always met with success. In 1989, he attempted
unsuccessfully to reconcile two Maronite leaders,
opposition-aligned Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun
and March 14/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea. To address
tense relations between the Maronite Patriarchate and
opposition Christians, Sfeir dispatched in early 2008 Beirut
Bishop Boulos Mattar to broker a reconciliation with Aoun and
Aoun's ally Marada party leader Suleiman Franjieh, an effort
that was unsuccessful.


5. (SBU) In 2007, during the months-long impasse over naming
a new consensus president, Patriarch Sfeir reluctantly
succumbed to French prodding to present a list of candidates.
The initiative ultimately failed and led some to speculate
on Sfeir's resignation. Sfeir ultimately played no role in
the decision to elect consensus candidate Michel Sleiman as
president. However, his refusal to give his stamp of approval
for a "half plus one" candidate was a key factor in March
14's decision not to push for one of its own candidates,
which it was confident could secure a simply majority.


6. (C) Another test of his political influence will be the
decision, expected soon, on a Maronite to replace Sleiman as
the next Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander. Patriarch
Sfeir is known to support LAF G-2 Intelligence Director
Georges Khoury, a leading candidate. Defense Minister Elias
Murr, who opposes Khoury for the job, has told us that
President Sleiman also opposes naming Khoury but the
Patriarch's support is a roadblock. MP Saad Hariri too is
opposed to Khoury's candidacy, and also has cited the
Patriarch's support for Khoury as a significant factor to
overcome (Ref B).

DECISION-MAKING IN SELECTING

BEIRUT 00001228 002.2 OF 002


THE NEXT PATRIARCH
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7. (C) Patriarchs are appointed to life-long terms and
resignations are rare and publicly scorned. The previous
patriarch resigned due to health concerns and passed away
eight years later. Carol Dagher, who is an expert on
Maronite affairs and a representative in the General Assembly
Synod, told us that Cardinal Khoraish was somehat tainted by
a scandal over the murder of his ephew, though this is
rarely mentioned. It is generally considered taboo in
Lebanon to discuss wh might succeed the Patriarch and the
topic is brached only with great care.


8. (SBU) There is n definitive process for selecting the
next patrirch. One method is for the 40 members making up
the Archbishop Synod (Ref A) to elect the patriarchwith a
two-thirds majority. The Vatican plays amajor role in
approving the candidate selected b the Synod. If this
majority is not reached, thedecision is made by the Vatican.
Alternatively,the Council of Bishops can submit three
names tothe Vatican, which then chooses the final name. A
third option is a direct appointment by the Vatian, which
occurred when the Pope appointed Cardinal Khoraish's
predecessor, Paul Peter Meoushi, in 1955.


9. (C) According to Dagher, "It is anyone's guess who becomes
the next Patriarch." She noted that Patriarch Sfeir is
reserved, and unlikely to state a preference for his
successor. Nevertheless, previous Patriarchs share common
characteristics. Often, the patriarch has been part of the
inner circle at Bkirke, serving as an auxiliary bishop or an
Archbishop. Bishop Bishara Rai from Jbeil told EmbOffs that
a candidate should know Arabic (not to be assumed among
older, French-educated Lebanese),and have relevant
experience. The Patriarch must be younger than age 75, and
is typically between 65 and 70 when appointed.

COMPETITION WITHIN THE COUNCIL
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10. (C) Dagher suggested that there are varying
self-interests among the bishops as to what kind of patriarch
is desired; some bishops want to elect a strong personality
whereas others prefer a weaker candidate in order to preserve
their own independence.


11. (C) While no one has positioned himself to date as a
candidate, Dagher listed off bishops she perceived to be
emerging as strong bishops, include the Beirut Bishop Boulos
Mattar, who is widely-regarded as the front-runner, the Metn
Bishop Youssef Bishara, the Zahle Bishop Mansour Hobeika, and
Bishop Greg Mansour, who represents the Maronite community in
New York (but is too young, Dagher caveated).


12. (C) According to Father Marwan Tabet, Secretary General
of the Catholic school system, Patriarch Sfeir does not wish
to see Youssef Bishara succeed him because he blames Bishara
for Christian in-fighting during the 2005 parliamentary
elections. Sfeir appointed Bishara as the spiritual head of
Qornet Shehawan, a coalition of Christians united in their
call for Syrian withdrawal prior to 2005. Sfeir attributes
Qornet Shehawan's losses in the 2005 elections to Bishara's
inability to keep the Christians united.


13. (C) Tabet predicted that Sfeir will remain as Patriarch
for the next two years to ensure that Bishara, who will turn
75 and retire in two years' time, does not succeed him.
Tabet said it is possible Sfeir may choose to retire once
Bishara is no longer in the running, when Sfeir will be 90.

GRANT