Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BEIRUT1187
2008-08-13 16:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:  

LEBANON: HIZBALLAH WILL PRESS FOR ACTION AGAINST

Tags:  PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS SY LE 
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VZCZCXRO9707
PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHLB #1187/01 2261656
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 131656Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2743
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2735
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 2987
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001187 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, PM/FO
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK, WARLICK
P FOR HMUSTAFA, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: HIZBALLAH WILL PRESS FOR ACTION AGAINST
ISRAELI OVERFLIGHTS, HARIRI WARNS

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).

SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001187

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, PM/FO
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK, WARLICK
P FOR HMUSTAFA, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: HIZBALLAH WILL PRESS FOR ACTION AGAINST
ISRAELI OVERFLIGHTS, HARIRI WARNS

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Majority leader Saad Hariri warned that Hizballah
would soon pressure the GOL to take action against Israeli
overflights. He was reacting to recent tough statements from
Israel about the official GOL cabinet statement linking
Hizballah's "resistance" to the authority of the Lebanese
state. Dismissing the recent parliamentary debate over the
cabinet statement as a "political charade" after Hizballah's
show of force, Hariri indicated he was beginning to think
about the 2009 parliamentary elections, especially the
contested Christian districts. Hariri told us that he
informed both President Sleiman and PM Siniora that the
appoint of Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) G-2 Intelligence
Director Georges Khoury as the next LAF Commander is a "red
line" for his party. End summary.

PRESSURE ON GOL TO ACT
AGAINST ISRAELI OVERFLIGHTS
--------------


2. (C) Charge Grant, accompanied by Pol/Econ Chief, met with
majority leader Saad Hariri and his advisor Ghattas Khoury on
August 10. Hariri began by asking, "When is Israel going to
attack us?" The Israelis, he claimed, believed Hizballah had
air-to-air missiles and would hold the GOL accountable for
any strikes against Israeli aircraft. Hariri expressed
concern that recent Israeli statements that it would hold all
of Lebanon responsible for any attacks would provoke
Hizballah into demanding that the GOL respond equally
aggressively.


3. (C) Hariri warned that following parliament's vote of
confidence (which occurred August 12),Hizballah would
challenge the government to take action against Israeli

overflights. We will have to give the Lebanese Armed Forces
(LAF) a mandate to respond, he said, to prevent Hizballah
from acting and to take away its claim to being the only
credible resistance. Diplomatic responses are not enough, he
added; if we allow the Israeli overflights, what's to stop
the Syrians? While Hariri admitted that the LAF capabilities
would not threaten the Israelis, he was concerned that
Hizballah might fire rockets at Israeli aircraft, provoking
Israeli retaliations against all of Lebanon, rather than just
Hizballah.

PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE
A "POLITICAL CHARADE"
--------------


4. (C) Hariri dubbed the parliamentary debate over the
ministerial statement a "political charade"; i.e., that it
was meaningless given Hizballah's May takeover of west Beirut
and Doha agreement, which resulted in giving the opposition a
blocking third in cabinet. Hizballah did not want its arms
mentioned in the debate, he explained, expecting the majority
to be scared of them, "and obviously we are not."

LOOKING TO 2009
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
--------------


5. (C) Looking ahead to the 2009 parliamentary elections,
Hariri and Khoury both agreed on the need to support March 14
candidates, especially Christians, in contested regions such
as Jbeil, Baabda, the Biqa', Zahle, and West Biqa'.
Separately, Khoury reported that he is working with other
March 14 Christians to form an "independent" group (i.e., not
affiliated with Lebanese Forces or Kataeb) that would be
capable of attracting votes from the "40 percent" of
Lebanon's Christians who "don't know where to go" because
they supported neither Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel
Aoun (of the opposition) nor Lebanese Forces leader Samir
Geagea (of the majority).

VETOS GEORGES KHOURY

BEIRUT 00001187 002 OF 002


AS LAF COMMANDER
--------------


6. (C) Hariri relayed that he had told both President Sleiman
and PM Siniora the day before that he would not accept LAF
G-2 Intelligence Director Georges Khoury as LAF Commander,
warning them that his ministers would resign from cabinet.
Sleiman reportedly was "happy" with Hariri's position.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) We are glad to see that Hariri is at least beginning
to think about the upcoming parliamentary elections. The
Christian divide, both within March 14 and in the country as
a whole, will play a major role in the 2009 elections. A
March 14 "third-way" Christian bloc reflects the recognition
by some in March 14 that many Christian voters who might
support March 14 are wary of its leading Christian member,
Samir Geagea. A big challenge for them will be to ensure
that its Christian blocs attract voters away from Michel Aoun
rather than each other.


8. (C) We should not assume that Hariri's tough talk tough
against the selection of George Khoury as LAF commander means
it won't happen. DefMin Elias Murr, who also opposes Khoury,
has warned that the Maronite Patriarch's support for Khoury
may translate into his being chosen. We believe discussions
are going on now about the LAF commander for a cabinet
meeting on this subject likely to be held soon after Sleiman
returns from Syria August 15. End comment.

GRANT