LEBANON: AGRICULTURE MINISTER SKAFF CONFIDENT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001160

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK AND PDAS WARLICK
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/MCDERMOTT
CAIRO FOR KURZ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/06/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC EAGR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: AGRICULTURE MINISTER SKAFF CONFIDENT OF
OPPOSITION ELECTORAL VICTORY

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In an August 7 courtesy call by Charge Grant,
Agriculture Minister Elie Skaff emphasized the importance of
the 2009 parliamentary elections, while downplaying the
upcoming National Dialogue, in solving Lebanon's problems.
Nevertheless, he recommended enlarging the membership of the
Dialogue. Skaff is allied with opposition Christian leader
Michel Aoun and received one of the five cabinet seats
allotted to Aoun's bloc. He credited the March 14 majority's
increased cooperation with him and others in the opposition
to a perception that the U.S. has reduced its unconditional
support for March 14, support which Skaff and allies often
complained kept March 14 from agreeing to compromise, coupled
with a distancing from March 14 by Druze leader Walid
Jumblatt.


2. (C) Skaff remarked that his ally Aoun is eyeing the
parliamentary elections as a way to become "more powerful
than the president," if his party gains more seats.
Explaining Aoun's alliance to Hizballah as one of
"sincerity," Skaff said Aoun's Christian followers and Shia
have united due to a threat of Sunni domination. Skaff
outlined his priorities to boost the agricultural sector and
meet farmers' needs over the next nine months. End summary.

WITHOUT FULL USG BACKING,
MARCH 14 MORE COOPERATIVE
--------------


3. (C) In an August 7 courtesy call by Charge Grant,
accompanied by PolOff, Agriculture Minister Elie Skaff
expressed his satisfaction with the cabinet formation and
ministerial statement. Opposition-aligned Skaff
characterized the political atmosphere as "much more
civilized" than before. Though it may take a long time to
solve problems, he continued, we do solve them. Skaff was
not in the 2005-08 Siniora cabinet, but was also Agriculture
Minister in the 2004-05 Karame government.


4. (C) He credited what he perceived to be a decline in U.S.
support for March 14 as forcing the March 14 alliance to
become more cooperative. He also cited Druze leader Walid
Jumblatt's distancing himself a bit from March 14 as another
contributing factor. He urged the U.S. to maintain positive
relations with all groups. (Comment: Skaff, who is allied
with Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun's bloc, gave
a different explanation for his alliance with Hizballah than
what we usually hear from Aounies, who deem it a "marriage of
convenience." Skaff instead portrayed the alliance with the
Shia in general as one of "sincerity" and a "guarantee of
protection," believing that the Sunnis pose a threat to
minority Christians and Shias. End comment.)

NATIONAL DIALOGUE
LESS IMPORTANT THAN ELECTIONS
--------------


5. (C) Dismissing the importance of the National Dialogue,
Skaff said the elections would provide the "real solutions"
to Lebanon's problems. He suggested enlarging the membership
of the Dialogue, believing that having the same participants
as before will result in the same problems. Former MP and
minister Suleiman Franjieh, former President Emile Lahoud,
and former PM Salim Hoss should be included, Skaff suggested,
and Defense Minister Elias Murr could replace his father, MP
Michel Murr. Skaff noted that President Sleiman was opposed
to altering the membership.

AOUN EYEING SOMETHING MORE
POWERFUL THAN THE PRESIDENCY
--------------


7. (C) Skaff relayed that Aoun, at last accepting that he is
not the president, has determined that if his party could
gain more parliamentary seats in the 2009 elections, then he

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will be more powerful than if he were president. "Then he
can begin cleaning up this country," Skaff stated.


8. (C) Skaff was confident that the opposition will prove
victorious in the elections, "if there are no surprises." He
dismissed the likelihood of facing competition in his home
area of Zahle, explaining that the Christians there did not
traditionally support "extremist" Christians, because they
live in close proximity to Muslims and want to preserve good
relations with everyone. By extremist, he meant March 14
Christian leaders Samir Geagea and Amine Gemayal.

SYRIA MAY BOOST SLEIMAN
--------------


9. (C) Believing that Syria is ready to treat Lebanon as an
equal partner as long as President Sleiman is in power, Skaff
hoped Syria would "give something" to Sleiman during his
upcoming trip to Damascus. If Syria does not, he continued,
it will lose Sleiman.

SEVERAL PROJECTS PLANNED
FOR NEXT NINE MONTHS
--------------


10. (C) Skaff discussed his ministry's priorities prior to
the spring 2009 parliamentary elections. He inquired about
the possibility of receiving USAID assistance to supply
chilling storage facilities for potatoes in the Bekaa Valley.
Skaff also plans to focus on an already-funded project to
expand water holes that collect snowfall to use for
irrigation, fighting forest fires, and supplementing the
country's receding water basin.


11. (C) He is also interested in accelerating "agriculture
extension," suggesting, in particular, employing engineers to
educate farmers with growing tips and the use of pesticides,
with the goal of exporting goods to Europe. He further
mentioned milk collection, new plant growth, insuring against
bionatural hazards, and implementation of an agribank to
assist farmers, which he noted PM Fouad Siniora opposed.
Skaff asked about USG assistance in providing equipment to
shred dry brush which could then be reused as composting
material.


12. (C) Skaff stressed the importance of agriculture and
meeting farmers' needs, arguing that dissatisfied farmers
could choose to migrate to cities instead, where they may not
find jobs. Commenting that his ministry has a history of
corruption, Skaff reported that he brought in "honest"
individuals to oversee the ministry.

COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) This is the first we have heard about trying to
expand the National Dialogue to include groups not
represented in the last such Dialogue in 2006. Three of the
persons Skaff mentioned are strongly pro-Syrian (Suleiman
Franjieh, Emile Lahoud, Salim Hoss) so we hope that President
Sleiman keeps the membership as it was. End Comment.

GRANT