Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BEIRUT1135
2008-08-01 18:40:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:  

LEBANON: MINISTERIAL DECLARATION EXPECTED AUGUST

Tags:  PGOV PTER PREF KDEM IS LE SY 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO1758
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHLB #1135/01 2141840
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 011840Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2638
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 2681
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 2945
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/DOD WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001135 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, PRM/FO
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO
DOD/OSD FOR EDELMAN, LONG, DALTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2018
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREF KDEM IS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MINISTERIAL DECLARATION EXPECTED AUGUST
1; ANOTHER WEEK FOR FINAL APPROVALS

Classified By: CDA William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001135

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, PRM/FO
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO
DOD/OSD FOR EDELMAN, LONG, DALTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2018
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREF KDEM IS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MINISTERIAL DECLARATION EXPECTED AUGUST
1; ANOTHER WEEK FOR FINAL APPROVALS

Classified By: CDA William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Several Cabinet sources confirmed to us today that
they expect the draft of Lebanese cabinet's ministerial
statement to be completed by the night of August 1. Tareq
Mitri, Minister of Information and a member of the drafting
committee allied with March 14 and PM Siniora, told Charge
and Special Assistant that the language on the "resistance"
now in the text is much better than was the case in the 2005
declaration, and better than that in earlier drafts. "We did
better than I thought we would and to be honest, I can't
believe Hizballah let us include some of the language they
did." He was particularly pleased with a paragraph near the
beginning of the document that declares the Lebanese state to
be the sole formulator of national policy. Finance Minister
Mohamad Chatah, also a member of the drafting committee, told
Charge earlier in the day that he also was pleased about the
inclusion of that paragraph. Chatah noted, though, that the
entire text allows "both sides to spin it as they want". We
have included in para 14 suggested points for a USG statement
if the statement after agreement on the statement is
announced.


2. (C) Mitri outlined the schedule if the drafting committee
approves the text today. It will be sent to all cabinet
members for a cabinet meeting likely to be on Monday, August

4. Then it goes to parliament for what Mitri and others
predict will be three days of speech-making by
parliamentarians. Mitri believes the formal adoption of the
declaration will not be completed until August 8 at the
earliest.


3. (C) When asked about Hizballah's latest communique about
Israeli overflights and its role in the drafting committee,
Mitri said he believes Hizballah will not instigate another
major confrontation in the near future. "They know they are
negotiating from a position of strength and they are trying

not to present an arrogant image to the domestic voting
audience." End Summary.

Hizballah Language is "Better than 2005"
--------------


4. (C) Information Minister Tarig Mitri said the March 14
majority "got what it could get" regarding the language
relating to arms and the "resistance". He said there had
been very long and contentious arguments about the topic in
the committee, with Hizballah arguing for using the same
language that was used in the 2005 ministerial declaration.
March 14 argued that conditions were vastly different in 2008
and was able to improve upon the language.


5. (C) Mitri said that paragraph five or six of the
declaration, which is near the beginning as "one of the most
important affirmations," declares that only the state has the
authority to formulate policy designed to protect the country
and that this principal supersedes all others in the
document. Mitri was also pleased that a phrase was included
which affirms the Lebanese state's right to either
"liberate", implying armed struggle, or "recuperate", meaning
via diplomacy, Lebanon's occupied territory such as Sheba'a
Farms. Mitri said that it was very difficult to add the
second "softer" option, and this should be seen as a victory.

"Draft Will Be Finalized Today"
--------------


6. Mitri visibly grimaced when asked how the drafting process
had proceeded. "Helping to write the UNSCR 1701 was a piece
of cake compared to this." He said the process has been
exacerbated by Speaker Nabih Berri's "lies" about the
deadline for completing the declaration and also the public's
impatience with the delays. In the end, however, Mitri
believes this detailed document will effectively guide the
government's actions on a wide range of national issues.


7. (C) Mitri outlined the next steps of the approval process:


BEIRUT 00001135 002 OF 003


-- The drafting committee will meet later on August 1 to put
finishing touches on the agreed-upon language.

-- A technical and legal review of the language will take
place on August 2. After, copies will be distributed to the
cabinet members to allow them to review and prepare comments.

-- The cabinet will meet on August 4 or 5 to consider the
declaration. Mitri believes this process will proceed
quickly, as most ministers are just anxious to be done with
the process. (Note: Ministers may go on record with
objections to certain portions of the declaration and we have
heard that ministers representing Kataeb and Lebanese Forces
are planning to do so with regard to the Hizballah arms
language, septel. End Note.)

-- The declaration will subsequently be sent to parliament,
where there will be up to three days for public comment.
Mitri believes that MPs will use this opportunity to make
televised speeches targeted directly to their constituencies
to begin posturing for the spring 2009 elections.

-- The parliament must then convene for the declaration's
formal adoption and "vote of confidence" for the new
government. Mitri expects this to happen on August 8 if all
goes well.

"Hizballah Communique Should Not Cause Immediate Alarm"
--------------


8. (C) Mitri told us that the recent Hizballah communique
condemning Israeli overflights had been discussed in the
drafting committee. "The Israelis keep giving Hizballah the
perfect argument for the legitimacy of their arms to defend
the nation's sovereignty. They point to the lack of response
from the LAF and say that they are the only ones who can
defend Lebanon."


9. (C) In Mitri's opinion, however, the communiqu should not
cause immediate alarm. Hizballah officials had told Mitri
quietly that they had no intention of de-railing this final
phase of the government's formation. "I am inclined to think
that they will be quiet until after the U.S. elections in
November. After May 2008, Hizballah is in a position of
strength and they are being careful not to come across as
heavy handed or arrogant, especially in light of the upcoming
parliamentary elections in 2009."

Looking Forward
--------------


10. (C) Mitri's hope is that the National Dialogue process
will empower President Sleiman. "We all want to see him
fully take charge of the office. He is playing a very
cautious game now." Mitri said it is imperative to Sleiman
to increase his power base. "Hizballah is quite confident
that it will win the parliamentary elections in 2009. There
are a large majority of moderate and undecided Christians who
could be mobilized around the right candidate. This is
critical because all could be lost in the next elections."


11. (C) Mitri, an independent Greek Orthodox cabinet member
chosen by Prime Minister Siniora, told us that March 14 is
doing very little to prepare for the upcoming elections.
"The violence in May produced a serious blow for some of the
top leaders and they are still processing it." Mitri also
echoed what we frequently hear - that March 14 feels
abandoned by its international allies. Mitri, who served as
Acting Foreign Minister prior to his current position,
disagrees. "I know what happens in the UN and how the
international community manifests its support. However,
March 14 leaders want their allies to compete with Syrian and
Iranian influences using the same tools. I tell them this is
ridiculous. Is a nice country like Sweden going to step
forward with car bombs? Will the EU form its own version of
Hizballah to defend Lebanon? These guys need to get real
about their expectations and move on."

Plans for the Information Ministry
--------------


BEIRUT 00001135 003 OF 003



12. (C) Mitri, a noted author, said his wish had been to
remain as the Minister of Culture. He told us that he was
given his current post at the last minute and is still trying
to navigate his way through the new portfolio. His
predecessor, a Druze ally of Walid Jumblatt's, rarely spoke
with the media. Mitri said he will attempt to fill this gap.
He said that he is also charged with the management of the
government's National News Agency. The Ministry historically
has performed as an "old school" information body which
"sermonized about the value of good citizenship." In the
aftermath of the May violence, Mitri believes that these
types of programs to strengthen the national identity will
become even more important.


13. (C) Finally, Mitri said that he will also have a role in
the administration of the 2009 elections. There is a law on
the books now which regulates media use by candidates and
even stronger reforms are currently being debated in
parliamentary committees. Mitri believes that he will have
difficulty enforcing these rules. "I have no tools to use
against offenders beyond a stern letter and the threat of a
protracted court case which will end in a minuscule fine."

Comment: Suggested Press Guidance
--------------


14. (C) We expect the GOL to announce on August 1 or 2 that
the cabinet drafting committee has reached agreement on the
text of a ministerial statement. Once the announcement is
made, Embassy proposes the following points for public USG
statements.

-- The United States congratulates the Lebanese government on
reaching agreement on its new ministerial declaration. If
this statement is approved by the full cabinet and the
parliament, as expected, it will guide the program for the
new cabinet.

-- We are pleased that the ministerial declaration reaffirms
the central role of the Lebanese state as the body that
formulates national policy for key issues such as defense.
The declaration also confirms that the state represents a
full range of actors in Lebanese society.

-- This declaration was negotiated among Lebanese leaders who
are part of the national unity government. We continue to
support Lebanese making decisions for Lebanon free from
outside influences. End Comment.
GRANT