LEBANON: PM SINIORA WARNS AGAINST HIZBALLAH'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001022

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, PM/FO
ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK
P FOR HERRO MUSTAFA
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PM SINIORA WARNS AGAINST HIZBALLAH'S
GROWING STANDING

REF: BEIRUT 1011

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William K. Grant for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) PM Siniora is pleased with the final cabinet formation
and does not foresee difficulties in the preparation of the
ministerial statement. However, he remains concerned about
Hizballah's growing stature, particularly in light of the
upcoming prisoner exchange between Lebanon and Israel. He
said Hizballah will claim credit for that exchange, including
with other Arab states, and will use it as further proof on
the need to maintain its weapons. Siniora acknowledged the
USG message that the release of Samir Kantar should not be
greeted with too much fanfare and should instead be welcomed
as the closing of a long-standing contentious issue. He
added, however, that Lebanon had been demanding the release
of Lebanese prisoners in Israel for a long time, and that it
could have been achieved long ago had it not been for Israeli
intransigence. Siniora reiterated that Israel withdrawal
from Sheba'a Farms would be an easy way for Israel to
demonstrate its intentions for peace, and to boost the
legitimacy of the Lebanese government as opposed to
Hizballah. He also warned that any progress in
Syrian-Israeli talks should not come at the expense of
Lebanon. End summary.

CONFIDENT ON CABINET
--------------


2. (C) Charge Grant, accompanied by Pol/Econ Chief, met with
PM Siniora and his aide, Rola Noureddine, at the PM's office
in the Grand Serail on July 15. When Charge offered him U.S.
congratulations on forming a cabinet, the normally reserved
Siniora lit up with satisfaction and said a series of last
minute accomplishments had succeeded in raising the quality
of representation in the cabinet. Noting that the cabinet
would meet for the first time the following day, July 16, and
would appoint a committee to develop the ministerial
statement to parliament, he said he "did not foresee
difficulties" in preparing the statement. (Note: The
statement is due within 30 days of cabinet formation, or
August 11, and is expected to address the sensitive issue of
Hizballah's arms. This was the first time in recent memory
that Mohamed Chatah did not participate in an Embassy meeting
with the PM. Formerly Siniora's senior aide, Chatah had
officially taken up earlier in the day his new post as
Finance Minister. Chatah told Charge the evening before that
he would be working full time as Finance Minister and no
longer be an aide to the PM, and that Siniora had begun the
process to replace him. End note.)

CONCERNED ABOUT HIZBALLAH
--------------


3. (C) With the cabinet formed, the government now faced a
series of security, social, and economic challenges, Siniora
continued. Countering recent events that were undermining
liberalism and democracy in Lebanon to the benefit of
Hizballah was a top priority, he stressed. Unfortunately, he
opined, everything Israel was doing was a plus for Syria,
Iran, and Hizballah, including the expected July 16 release
of Lebanese prisoners (septel). By dealing with Hizballah
rather than the government, Israel had enhanced Hizballah's
standing in Lebanon and the region. Hizballah's arms must be
discussed within Lebanon, he said, but everything was
pointing toward an even more adamant stance on Hizballah's
part on the need to keep its weapons.

PRISONER EXCHANGE BOOSTS
HIZBALLAH'S CREDIBILITY
--------------


4. (C) Siniora acknowledged the Charge's concern that the
release of Samir Kantar, imprisoned since 1979 for the
killing of three Israelis, should not be greeted with too
much fanfare and should instead be welcomed as the closing of
the file on a long-standing issue of contention. He added,
however, that Lebanon had been demanding the release of
Lebanese prisoners in Israel for a long time, and that it

BEIRUT 00001022 002 OF 002


could have been achieved long ago had it not been for Israeli
intransigence. Again, he stressed, the general conclusion is
that force and violence are "the only language Israel
understands," giving a "major facelift" to Hizballah and
enhancing the role of extremists in the region.


5. (C) Noureddine added that viewing the release of the
prisoners as the end to a chapter was acceptable if viewed
within the framework of UNSCR 1701. In that case, however,
other aspects of 1701 needed to be addressed, including
Israeli cluster bombs and overflights. Both issues are
easily solvable, and doing so would narrow the list of
excuses for Hizballah to maintain its weapons, she argued.
Instead, Israel was trying to put Sheba'a into a broader,
regional framework, she said (we assume she meant a
Syria-Israel track). Siniora agreed, pleading, "Please pass
this message to the Israelis!"

SHEBA'A: "LOW COST, HIGH RETURN"
--------------


6. (C) If Israel really wanted peace with Lebanon,
withdrawing from Sheba'a Farms would be an easy gesture that
would help boost the legitimacy of the Lebanese government,
Siniora stressed. Such a move would entail a "low cost, but
high return" and help make the argument that diplomacy and
the principles of freedom, democracy, and non-violence can
also achieve results.

SYRIAN TRACK MUST NOT
BE AT LEBANON'S EXPENSE
--------------


7. (C) Commenting dryly that it was "very fashionable to talk
to the Syrians" these days, Siniora labeled French President
Sarkozy's recent meeting in Paris with Syrian President Asad
as "big fanfare" rewarding Asad for his willingness to talk
with the Israelis. The Syrian-Israel track appeared to be
"gaining momentum and on the front burner" of the peace
process, he noted, with an unstated apparent reference to the
Israeli-Palestinian track.


8. (C) Siniora said he was not opposed to talking to the
Syrians, but stressed that any deals should not come at
Lebanon's expense, citing the issue of Palestinian refugees
in Lebanon as a major concern. Lebanon remained committed to
the Arab peace initiative, he said, adding that
implementation of 1701 could lead to implementation of the
1949 armistice agreement between Lebanon and Israel.
GRANT