LEBANON: WITH CABINET, BOTH SIDES TRYING TO HELP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001018

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: WITH CABINET, BOTH SIDES TRYING TO HELP
CHRISTIANS FOR 2009 ELECTION

REF: A. BEIRUT 1011

B. BEIRUT 733

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William K. Grant for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) The transition to the new government announced on July
11 has begun, with some ministers already officially assuming
their duties. The cabinet is expected to convene by mid-week
to form a committee responsible for drafting the ministerial
statement which is due by August 11. Negotiations on that
statement could be contentious. Many of our contacts and
media reports highlighted that the appointment of Christian
ministers by both the majority and opposition blocs was done
with the intention of improving the blocs' chances in
Christian districts, expected to be decisive swing districts
in the 2009 elections. The performance by ministers in
"service ministries", which provide service voters see, also
will play a pivotal role in swaying votes. End summary.

NEXT STEPS AFTER
CABINET FORMED
--------------


2. (C) Following the July 11 formation of the cabinet (Ref
A),this week will be devoted to a series of procedural steps
to complete the transition to the new government. Each of
the newly-designated ministers will meet with his predecessor
to assume his portfolio in individual ceremonies. The new
Youth and Sports Minister Talal Arslan and Telecommunications
Minister Gebran Bassil have already taken over their
ministries, July 14 press reported. No formalities exist for
PM Fouad Siniora or re-appointed ministers and they have shed
their caretaker status and resumed their capacities as
minister. The new cabinet will pose for an official
photograph this week.


3. (C) It is anticipated that the cabinet will meet for the
first time on or around Thursday, July 17 to form a committee
responsible for drafting the ministerial statement. Each of
the major parties represented in the cabinet will choose a
ministerial representative for the committee, totaling four
to five individuals.


4. (C) The government has thirty days starting from the date
of its formation, July 11, to approve the ministerial
statement and present it to parliament. Contacts have told
us that the statement will be based on the Doha agreement
(Ref B),with some predicting disputes on key issues
including Hizballah's arms. Once the statement has consensus
among the committee members, the cabinet then must approve
the statement and, following this approval, parliament will
hold a vote of confidence confirming the new cabinet.

THINKING OF HELPING THE CHRISTIANS IN THE
2009 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
--------------


5. (C) Many embassy contacts and media outlets emphasized the
impact the allocation of cabinet seats has on strengthening
the two sides' prospects in the 2009 elections. For example,
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, a Christian March 14
stalwart, told CDA that the cabinet composition will be very
helpful to him and other March 14 Christians for 2009.
Following negotiations with his March 14 allies, Geagea got
to name two ministers, double what he had in the 2005
cabinet.


6. (C) Mansour al-Bon, close to President Michel Sleiman,
told us on Saturday, July 12, that the "generosity" to their
Christian allies by both Hizballah, for the opposition, and
Saad Hariri, for the majority, signals a serious effort from
both sides to provide as much support as possible to their
Christian allies' success in the next parliamentary
elections.

7. (C) Christian districts are widely seen here as the
decisive "swing districts" in the 2009 election. "Since the
outcome of the elections in the predominately-Sunni and Shia

BEIRUT 00001018 002 OF 002


districts has already been determined," al-Bon assessed,
"whomever wins the Christian areas will determine the next
majority in parliament. If Aoun takes all of the Christian
seats, then Hizballah will rule the country and if the March
14 Christians win these seats, Saad Hariri will win the
majority."


8. (C) There were tough negotiations over "service
ministries" because they are seen as useful for gaining
votes. So it is important to watch how the new ministers take
advantage of their portfolios.


9. (C) For example, should Public Works Minister Ghazi Aridi,
a Druse of March 14, make major strides in road construction,
March 14 may be rewarded in the form of votes. If he
undertakes projects in predominately Christian districts,
that will bolster the position by March 14 Christians that
the March 14 alliance serves Christian citizens' interests.
Other service ministries to watch are environment (acquired
by March 14),agriculture (retained by March 8),health
(retained by March 8),labor (retained by March 8),social
affairs (acquired by March 8),and energy and water (retained
by March 8).


10. (C) A rumor circulating in Beirut is that Qatar will be
providing one-year's supply of fuel to Lebanon, which will
boost the popularity of the energy and water ministry, led by
Michel Aoun's ally, Armenian Tashnaq member Alain Tabourian.


KEY POINTS ON
SELECT MINISTERS
--------------


11. (C) There are a number of interesting appointments in the
new cabinet. March 14 appointed independent Shia Ibrahim
Shamseddine, addressing a weakness in the prior cabinet where
March 14 had no Shia representation. We would expect new
justice minister Ibrahim Najjar, from Samir Geagea's Lebanese
Forces, to be highly supportive of the Special Tribunal given
Lebanese Forces' vehemently anti-Syrian stance. Lebanese
Forces also got to name the Environment Minster, doubling
their representation compared to 2005, the result of Saad
Hariri recognizing the importance of strengthening the
Christian role leading up to 2009.


12. (C) Sunni Tamam Salam, the cultural affairs minister
appointed by March 14, is seen as someone not as close to
Saad Hariri as most other Sunni from March 14 in the cabinet.
One hypothesis holds that Salam's candidacy was pushed by
the Saudis, as a way to court Sunnis who would otherwise be
reluctant to support Saad, after he lost their confidence
during the May 2008 clashes.


13. (C) Gebran Bassil, son-in-law and advisor to Free
Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, the new
telecommunications minister, could potentially cause problems
in the government if he chose to because his ministry is the
GOL's largest revenue source. As the minister, Bassil could
stall revenue transfers to the treasury. He is certainly not
expected to take action against Hizballah's fiber optics
network, as his predecessor from March 14 tried to do.
Bassil's presence could in fact facilitate Hizballah's
operations, though it is believed that Hizballah requires
only a blind eye, rather than any overt assistance from the
ministry.


14. (C) Ziad Baroud, the new interior minister nominated by
President Sleiman, is a technocrat and electoral reform
expert who has the potential to make headway on some reforms
in time for the 2009 elections. However, given his lack of
experience on internal security, the other major part of his
portfolio, we expect that there will be others who will have
the lead on policy in that area. At a July 12 event
organized for Lebanese youth to ask questions of the
politicians, Baroud skillfully evaded questions put to him on
security, saying he would prefer to wait until he is more
familiar with his portfolio.


GRANT