LEBANON: A CABINET IS FORMED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001011

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: A CABINET IS FORMED

REF: A. BEIRUT 733

B. BEIRUT 983

C. BEIRUT 963

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William K. Grant for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) After seven weeks of negotiations between and within
the opposition and the majority blocs, President Michel
Sleiman, Prime Minister-designate Fouad Siniora, and Speaker
Nabih Berri came together at the presidential palace for the
announcement of the formation of a 30-member cabinet at 1610
local time, July 11. The two obstacles delaying the
formation of the cabinet this week, the opposition's
controversial nomination of SSNP figure Ali Qanso and the
intra-March 14 Christian competition for ministerial seats,
were resolved, in part because of the desire of several March
14 leaders to preserve their alliance's unity. Our initial
assessment is that there are no major problems with this
cabinet, compared to the previous one, for U.S. interests.
End summary.

CABINET IS FORMED AFTER
SEVEN WEEKS OF NEGOTIATING
--------------


2. (C) The agreement on the cabinet, reached one day before
Sleiman is scheduled to depart for Paris to attend the Union
of the Mediterranean Summit, is in accordance with the
16-11-3 division arrived at in Doha (Ref A). The decrees on
the appointments have been signed, and the first cabinet
meeting is expected to take place Wednesday, July 16 or
later, after Sleiman's return to Lebanon.

Following is an overview of the significant developments of
the last few days that led to today's agreement:

SSNP FIGURE ALI QANSO
ACCEPTED BY MARCH 14
--------------


3. (C) At the beginning of the week, Hizballah announced its
intention to nominate Shia SSNP member Ali Qanso as a
minister, a move which was promptly rejected by Siniora on
the grounds that Qanso had threatened Saad Hariri and his
Future supporters in the north during the May clashes. When
both Hizballah and Amal insisted on Qanso's nomination, it
appeared that this could derail the negotiations. However
several March 14 figures, including Saad, advised Siniora
that it was a mistake to publicly block agreement on a
cabinet over this issue, and he relented.

NOMINATION OF NASSIB LAHOUD
SETTLED THE INTRA-MARCH 14
DISPUTES
--------------


4. (C) The second point of contention stalling the cabinet
formation this week was the appointments of March 14
Christian ministers (Ref B). Naming to the cabinet Nassib
Lahoud, a highly-respected former presidential candidate,
made acceptable excluding both Social Affairs Minister Nayla
Mouawad and Saad's senior advisor Ghattas Khoury, who had
been bickering over getting one of the March 14 Christian
seats. March 14 stalwart Marwan Hamadeh took credit, during
July 11 meeting with CDA, for advancing Lahoud's name to
solve the internal March 14 problem.

OTHER INTRA-MARCH 14
CONCESSIONS
--------------


5. (C) Hamadeh, allied with Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, said
that Jumblatt relented in his demands in order to reach
agreement with his March 14 ally, Lebanese Forces leader
Samir Geagea. Per the agreement, Jumblatt would appoint two
ministers (one with a portfolio and one a state minister),
allowing Geagea to appoint two ministers with portfolios,
despite the fact that Jumblatt controls many more MPs than
does Geagea.


6. (C) For his part, Saad Hariri made an important concession
to March 14 unity by giving the significant justice portfolio
for Geagea to designate. The symbolism of this concession is
important because if Saad, a Sunni, had turned down the
request by Geagea, a Christian, to get justice, opposition
Christian leader Michel Aoun could have made the case that
the March 14 Christians are controlled by the Sunnis.

JUMBLATT APPOINTED
INDEPENDENT SHIA SHAMSEDDINE
--------------


7. (C) In what is a promising overture to independent Shia,
Jumblatt succeeded in appointing independent Shia Ibrahim
Shamseddine, who is a member of neither Amal nor Hizballah,
to fill a March 14 slot. This was part of an agreement
Jumblatt made with the opposition, in which he exchanged a
Druze seat for the opportunity to appoint a Shia (Ref C).
Jumblatt named Shamseddine and the opposition named Talal
Arslan, an opposition Druze figure. Jumblatt has been
seeking political rapprochement with Arslan, so the latter's
appointment serves Jumblatt's interests also.

MINISTERS NOW OUTSIDE
OF THE CABINET
--------------


8. (C) Incumbent ministers who will not be returning to the
new cabinet are Marwan Hamadeh, a March 14 stalwart who was
Telecommunications Minister, Social Affairs Minister Nayla
Mouawad, Tourism Minister Joseph Sarkis, Displaced Persons
Minister Nehmeh Tohme, Economy Minister Sami Haddad, Finance
Minister Jihad Azour, Youth and Sports Minister Ahmad Fatfat,
Justice Minister Charles Rizk, Parliamentary Affairs Minister
Michel Pharon, Labor Minister Trad Hamadeh and Agriculture
Minister Talal Sahili.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) With regard to U.S. interests, our initial reaction is
that the membership of the new cabinet is no worse than the
membership of the 24-member national unity cabinet formed in

2005. Elias Murr stays as Defense Minister. Chatah, who
spent many years with the World Bank, is an excellent choice
for Finance Minister. Nassib Lahoud should be a strong
presence. Hizballah members occupied two seats in the
previous, smaller cabinet and will occupy one in the new,
with two other ministers designated by Hizballah. Some
initial questions: we have heard good things about new
Justice Minister Ibrahim Najjar but it remains to be seen if
he will be as strong an advocate for the Special Tribunal as
his predecessor, Charles Rizk (we have no reason to think he
won't). Interior Minister Ziad Baroud has responsibility for
managing the 2009 parliamentary election and two of the
internal security forces. He has extensive experience with
election reform, but none with internal security that we know
of. End comment.

COMPLETE LIST OF NEW CABINET
--------------


9. (SBU)

MINISTERS DESIGNATED BY MARCH 14 MAJORITY (16 members)

PM Fouad Siniora, Sunni (incumbent)

Bahia Hariri, Minister of Education, Sunni (new; aunt of MP
Saad Hariri)

Mohammed Chatah, Minister of Finance, Sunni (new; Siniora's
highly capable senior aide and also close to Saad Hariri.
One question: who will replace him to manage issues such as
Sheba'a Farms; he has told us that he expects his new
responsibilities will take up all of his time)

Tamam Salam, Minister of Culture, Sunni (new; close to Saad
Hariri)


BEIRUT 00001011 003 OF 003


Mohammed Safadi, Minister of Economy, Sunni (returning--was
minister of Public Works; Tripoli bloc; independent of Saad
Hariri)

Tareq Mitri, Minister of Information, Greek Orthodox
(returning--was Minister of Culture; close to Siniora)

Khaled Qabbani, Minister of State, Sunni (returning--was
Minister of Education; was close to Rafiq Hariri)

Ibrahim Najjar, Minister of Justice, Greek-Orthodox (new;
Lebanese Forces)

Tony Karam, Minister of Environment, Maronite (new; Lebanese
Forces)

Wael Abu Faour, Minister of State, Druze (new; Jumblatt bloc)

Ghazi Aridi, Minister of Public Works, Druze (returning--was
Minister of Information; Jumblatt bloc)

Elie Marouni, Minister of Tourism, Maronite (new; Kataeb)

Nassib Lahoud, Minister of State, Maronite (new; Democratic
Renewal Movement, part of March 14)

Jean Ogassapian, Minister of State, Armenian Orthodox
(returning--was Minister of Administrative Reform; close to
Saad Hariri)

Raymond Audi, Minister of Displaced, Greek-Catholic (new;
prominent owner of Audi Bank)

Ibrahim Shameseddine, Minister of State for Admin Reform,
Shia (new; independent)

MINISTERS DESIGNATED BY PRESIDENT SLEIMAN (3 members)

Ziad Baroud, Minister of Interior, Maronite (new; electoral
reform expert but has no internal security experience; close
to President Sleiman)

Elias Murr, Minister of Defense, Greek-Orthodox (incumbent
DefMin who loses his deputy PM position; close to President
Sleiman)

Yussef Takla, Minister of State, Greek-Catholic (new; close
to President Sleiman)

MINISTERS DESIGNATED BY THE OPPOSITION (11 members)

Talal Arslan, Minister of Youth and Sports, Druze (new; March
8)

Ali Qanso, Minister of State, Shia (new; SSNP)

Mohammed Fneish, Minister of Labor, Shia (returning--was
Minister of Environment; Hizballah)

Mohammed Khalifeh, Minister of Health, Shia (incumbent; close
to Amal)

Ghazi Zuayeter, Minister of Industry, Shia (new; close to
Amal)

Fawzi Salloukh, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Shia (incumbent;
close to Amal)

Issam Abu Jamra, Deputy PM and Minister of State,
Greek-Orthodox (new; Aoun)

Alain Tabourian, Minster of Energy and Water,
Aremenian-Orthodox (new; Tashnaq party)

Mario Aoun, Minister of Social Affairs, Maronite (new; Aoun)

Gebran Bassil, Minister of Telecom, Maronite (new; Aoun)

Elie Skaff, Minister of Agriculture, Greek-Catholic (new;
Popular Bloc and ally of Michel Aoun)
GRANT