MFA: CHINA SUPPORTS CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTION;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 000969

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2028
TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD ECON CH IN NP
SUBJECT: MFA: CHINA SUPPORTS CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTION;
WILL CONTINUE TO INTERVENE ON "CORE INTEREST" OF TIBET

REF: 07 KATHMANDU 1740

Classified By: Political Officer Ted Lyng. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary: During his March 2-3 visit to Nepal, Chinese
Assistant Foreign Minister He Yafei affirmed China's support
for a peaceful Constituent Assembly election in April, MFA
India, Nepal, Sri Lanka Division Deputy Director Zhao Lijian
told PolOff March 11. Zhao said the Chinese Government
acknowledges India's influence in Nepal as inevitable, though
China scholars complained that India's interference in the
Terai region supports Madhesi aspirations for independence.
China also welcomes Nepal's support for China's core
interests of Taiwan and Tibet and appreciates Nepalese
Government efforts to limit the "anti-Chinese" activities of
"overseas Tibetans." China will continue to intervene in
cases involving its Tibetan interests. End Summary.


2. (C) Asian Department India, Nepal, Sri Lanka Division
Deputy Director Zhao Lijian provided PolOff March 11 a
readout of Assistant Foreign Minister He Yafei's March 2-3
visit to Nepal and an overview of China-Nepal relations.
Zhao said China values its "very traditional friendship" with
Nepal because Nepal is a neighboring country with only one
other neighbor, India. China treats Nepal as "an equal
partner," Zhao said, and has continued to build its ties to
Nepal through high level visits from the Chinese Government,
the National People's Congress (NPC),the Chinese People's
Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the Communist
Party of China. AFM He Yafei's March visit was the seventh
round of a bilateral Foreign Ministry meeting mechanism.

Maoists in the Political Mainstream
--------------


3. (C) In Nepal, AFM He expressed satisfaction with progress
in bringing the Maoists into the political mainstream, Zhao
reported. Zhao also confirmed that Chinese Communist Party
officials had informally met the Maoists in addition to
formal meetings with other parties during visits to Nepal.
Commenting on the Maoists' prospects, Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences Nepal Scholar Wang Hongwei said he doubts the
Maoists would take up arms again, even if they fare poorly in
the upcoming Constituent Assembly election, because the
Nepalese Government has already paid attention to the social
and economic grievances that fed the original insurgency.
Separately, Ministry of State Security-affiliated China
Institutes of Contemporary International Relations South Asia
scholar Hu Shisheng concurred that the Maoists would remain
in the mainstream political arena. Noting that China's links
to the Maoists are strong, Hu hopes that after the election,
the Maoists will "season" themselves for a future governance
role by first staying in the opposition.

Madhesi Agreement
--------------


4. (C) Zhao said AFM He also noted positively the February 28
eight-point agreement the interim government had reached with
the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF). China hopes the
April 10 Constituent Assembly elections will take place
without delay or significant problems. While not commenting
on the long-term prospects of the agreement to address
Madhesi grievances, Zhao said the current interim government
has no mandate to deal with the Madhesi issue. He said that
the February 28 agreement aimed simply at getting the Madhesi
to participate in the election and the government formed
after the elections should most appropriately handle this
issue. Nepalese Embassy Counselor Nirmal Raj Kafle (protect)
hailed the February 28 agreement, commenting that "all the
hurdles have been removed" and "the path is clear" for the
upcoming Constituent Assembly elections. Kafle said that
China has made helpful statements "supporting the political
course" in Nepal.

India's influence in the Terai
--------------


5. (C) CICIR's Hu said less sanguinely that the recent
eight-point agreement is only a tactical move by the UDMF to
realize Madhesi aspirations for "genuine autonomy with
self-determination." Hu said if parties from the Terai gain
significant power in the Constituent Assembly, the Nepalese
public fear separatist sentiment will rise. Separately,
CASS' Wang agreed that the ultimate goal of the Madhesi

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parties is an independent state. Both Hu and Wang separately
condemned what they view as India's inappropriate
interference in the Terai, with Hu specifically highlighting
the role of India's intelligence agency, the Research and
Analysis Wing (reftel),in supporting Madhesi independence
activities.

Indian and China share influence in Nepal
--------------


6. (C) Recalling the popular expression that "Nepal is a yam
between two boulders," Kafle stated the Nepal is pursuing a
policy of "equi-balancing" its relationships with India and
China, being careful not to hurt the feelings of either of
its big neighbors. In a separate meeting, MFA-affiliated
China Institute of International Studies South Asia scholar
Rong Ying agreed that Nepal must "keep a balance" between
China and India, and that "it would be stupid" for China to
attempt to contain India's influence in Nepal. Commenting on
Nepal's ties to India and China, MFA's Zhao said that "India
is always there."

Nepal supports China's "core interests" of Taiwan, Tibet
-------------- --------------


7. (C) MFA's Zhao said that during AFM He's visit, the
Nepalese side reaffirmed its support for China's core
interests of Taiwan and Tibet. China welcomes the Nepalese
Foreign Ministry statement expressing its opposition to the
UN referendum in Taiwan. Zhao noted that Nepal has the
second largest population of "overseas Tibetans" and Nepal's
support of China's stance on Tibet is "very important" to
China. In that context, China welcomed the Nepalese
Government's affirmation that it "would never allow Tibetans
to use Nepal's territory to engage in anti-Chinese
activities." Nepalese Embassy Counselor Kafle told us
separately that while the Government of Nepal works with
UNHCR on sheltering over 20,000 Tibetan refugees, Nepal
realizes the sensitivity of the issue for China and strives
to ensure that Tibetans in Nepal "do not undertake activities
inconsistent with refugee status."


8. (C) China considers Tibetans transiting Nepal to India
"illegal emigrants," and encourages the Nepalese Government's
efforts to limit the entry of Tibetans into Nepal, Zhao said.
He explained that the Chinese Government intervened with a
Nepalese court to prevent registration of the Bhota Welfare
Society because China considers Bhota to be simply a new name
for the Tibetan Refugee Welfare Office (TRWO),which China
pressured the Nepalese government into closing in 2005
because China believes the TWRO served as a vehicle for the
Dalai Lama's anti-Chinese activities. China will be involved
in individual cases if they affect China's Tibetan interests,
Zhao affirmed. For example, he reiterated claims that the
Tibetan refugee taken from a refugee center in Kathmandu on
February 23 and returned to China was a criminal wanted in
China.


9. (C) Asked about the October 2006 Nangpa La border
shooting, where a Tibetan nun died and over 30 Tibetans
(including children) were taken into Chinese custody, Zhao
claimed that Tibetans "illegally leaving China" attacked
(well-armed) Chinese border police with rocks. In the course
of the incident, "an accident happened" and the young Tibetan
nun, caught in the middle of the conflict, was injured (by
whom Chinese authorities could not confirm) and died before
she could receive proper medical attention. Zhao did not
clarify the fate of the Tibetans taken into custody.

Trade relations minimal and one-sided
--------------


10. (C) During AFM He's visit, the two sides also discussed
measures to address the uneven bilateral trade relationship,
according to Zhao. Chinese exports to Nepal account for over
USD 385 million of the USD 400 million total bilateral trade
volume. Nepal Embassy Counselor Kafle lamented that Nepal
had little to offer China to help redress the trade imbalance
but is exploring increased fruit and herbal medicine exports
to Tibet and Sichuan province in China.
RANDT