PRC-PAKISTAN: MFA, SCHOLARS REMAIN FOCUSED ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 000869

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2028
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PARM CH PK
SUBJECT: PRC-PAKISTAN: MFA, SCHOLARS REMAIN FOCUSED ON
STABILITY, BUT LESS SO ON MUSHARRAF

BEIJING 00000869 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.4
(B/D).


1. (C) Summary: MFA officials and PRC scholars believe the
new coalition government in Pakistan will be inherently weak
and that extended political instability would likely lead to
the intervention of the Pakistan Army. Though the shakiness
of the nascent coalition Government will slow the development
and expansion of bilateral economic ties, MFA officials and
scholars are optimistic about bilateral relations. Stability
remains China's priority in Pakistan, though with President
Musharraf's authority waning, Chinese authorities and
scholars no longer tout him as the key to a stable Pakistan.
Despite the popular perception that the elections voiced
anti-U.S. sentiments, Chinese scholars remain convinced that
the United States has a key role in Pakistan's long-term
stability. End Summary.


2. (C) MFA Asian Affairs Department Afghanistan and Pakistan
Division Deputy Director Wang Lixin told PolOff in a recent
meeting that China is pleased the recent parliamentary
elections in Pakistan were conducted "smoothly and
peacefully." Moderates "getting the upper hand" in the
election is a positive development, according to Wang, and
China will watch closely the actions of the newly-formed
coalition government of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP)and
the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).


3. (C) Ministry of State Security-affiliated China Institutes
of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) South Asia
scholar Hu Shisheng separately told PolOff the recent
parliamentary elections delivered a "fractured" result for
Pakistani politics, with parties primarily controlling only
their historical ethnic and geographic bases. Hu said that
based on the election results, none of the leading political
parties can be considered national parties, and that any
PPP-led coalition will be "checked by many forces" and have a
limited decision-making capacity.

PPP/PML-N coalition "marriage of convenience"
--------------


4. (C) MFA's Wang expects that the new coalition government
will weaken President Pervez Musharraf's authority. She
claimed that in the PPP/PML-N coalition's efforts to restore
the 1973 Constitution, relationships among Musharraf, the
Government and the Parliament will be "complicated," creating
an "unstable factor" in the Pakistani political situation.


5. (C) CICIR's Hu said that the PPP/PML-N coalition
Government will be more stable now that Nawaz Sharif's PML-N
party has agreed to join the Government (rather than support
the PPP but decline ministerial portfolios),but that the two
parties' only common ground is revising the Constitution and
reducing President Musharraf's power. Though Musharraf "will
become a spent force," the long-term stability of the
coalition, which Hu called a "marriage of convenience," is
also doubtful. Hu noted that Nawaz Sharif "does not want to
play second fiddle" to the PPP and will soon look for a
separate path to political primacy in Pakistan.


6. (C) MFA-affiliated China Institute for International
Studies (CIIS) South Asia scholar Rong Ying told PolOff
recently that the PML-N majority controlling the provincial
government in Punjab, will further undermine the Central
Government's authority. Another cause for pessimism on the
longevity of the PPP/PML-N coalition, according to Rong, is
that the coalition's inherent weakness and its priorities of
addressing the Constitution and checking Musharraf's
authority will make it "unable to deliver" on practical
economic policies that can help the Pakistani population.

Army will not stay sidelined
--------------


7. (C) Because of uncertainties in the ruling coalition,
Deputy Director Wang said, "sooner or later" the Army will
intervene to play a role in balancing power among the
political parties and Musharraf. Despite reports that Army
Chief of Staff Ashfaq Kayani wishes to decrease the
military's involvement with politics, "they will not retreat
forever," Wang said. Both CICIR's Hu and CIIS' Rong agreed on
the important role of the Army in maintaining stability in
Pakistan, saying that the Army will not stand neutral if it
believes the political situation has become too unstable.


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8. (C) Rong pointed out the complexity of the power
relationships facing Pakistan, saying that he does not
believe Musharraf will be impeached and that, in fact, he may
come to the assistance of the PPP if its coalition with the
PML-N falls apart. For now, Rong said, the question is
whether Musharraf is the government's bridge to the Pakistani
Army to help secure the government's authority or is the Army
the government's agent to remove Musharraf permanently from
the political arena?

Any Pakistan Government would view China positively
-------------- --------------


9. (C) China is confident that whatever its form and
composition, the ruling government in Pakistan will have a
positive view of China, according to Deputy Director Wang.
Both CICIR's Hu and CIIS' Rong concurred that China believes
that as Pakistan's only "all-weather all-season" ally,
friendly bilateral relations will continue under any
government's leadership.


10. (C) Hu stated that China supported Musharraf in the past
because he was the key to stability and had the
decision-making authority that allowed China-Pakistan
economic ties to grow. Hu commented that maintaining
stability remains China's prime concern in Pakistan.
However, because of Musharraf's recent political misfortune,
China now stresses stability with less reference to
Musharraf's role.


11. (C) Deputy Director Wang affirmed that China intends to
keep a working relationship with President Musharraf. She
lamented that unlike under Musharraf's rule, when China and
Pakistan could efficiently negotiate bilateral economic
development projects, the shakiness of the nascent coalition
Government will slow the development and expansion of
bilateral economic ties.

United States still key to long-term stability
-------------- -


12. (C) CICIR's Hu asserted that despite the popular
perception that the recent election represented a negative
verdict on Musharraf's perceived ties to U.S. policy
interests, the long-term stability of Pakistan depends on the
relationships among the new Government, the Pakistani Army,
Musharraf, and the United States. Similarly, CIIS' Rong said
that of the "three A's" of Pakistani politics -- Allah, the
Army and America -- the importance of the United States has
not diminished. For U.S. interests, CICIR's Hu stated, only
the PPP can publicly support pro-U.S. policies without
suffering the anti-U.S. backlash that affected Musharraf. He
added that Nawaz Sharif has "his own ideas" on Pakistan's
counter-terrorism efforts.
RANDT