Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BEIJING4479
2008-12-09 11:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beijing
Cable title:  

PRC SCHOLARS SAY XINJIANG SECURITY IS TOP PRIORITY

Tags:  PREL PGOV ENRG EDEV PINR PBTS CH ZK 
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VZCZCXRO1822
OO RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHBJ #4479/01 3441141
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 091141Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1289
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 004479 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2028
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG EDEV PINR PBTS CH ZK
SUBJECT: PRC SCHOLARS SAY XINJIANG SECURITY IS TOP PRIORITY
FOR CHINA-CENTRAL ASIA RELATIONS

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson.
Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 004479

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2028
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG EDEV PINR PBTS CH ZK
SUBJECT: PRC SCHOLARS SAY XINJIANG SECURITY IS TOP PRIORITY
FOR CHINA-CENTRAL ASIA RELATIONS

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson.
Reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary: China seeks to improve political and
economic relations with Central Asia primarily to ensure PRC
domestic security, especially in the restive Xinjiang region
given deep cultural and religious links between China's
western ethnic minorities and Central Asia, according to PRC
scholars. China has increased its soft power projection in
the region, and a wide range of PRC Government ministries and
state-owned enterprises are instructed to contribute to this
effort. Beijing seeks to avoid friction with Russia over
Central Asia, but this may be difficult given Russia's
reassertion of influence in the region. Beijing views the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a vehicle for
mitigating potential China-Russia friction in the region.
End Summary.


2. (C) PolOff discussed trends in China's relations with the
countries of Central Asia with Xia Yishan, senior research
fellow at the MFA-affiliated China Institute of International
Studies (CIIS) on November 21, and Chen Jiejun from the
Ministry of State Security-affiliated China Institutes of
Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) on November 20.

Primary PRC Interest: Securing Xinjiang
--------------


3. (C) CICIR's Chen Jiejun argued China's primary interest in
Central Asia is the need to ensure security and social
stability in western China, particularly restive Xinjiang
Uighur Autonomous Region (XUAR),which shares many cultural
and religious characteristics with Central Asian countries.
China closely monitors its western border to fight against
trans-national separatist and terrorist groups that seek
refuge in Central Asia. Beijing believes that the
cooperation of governments in Central Asia is critical for
the success of this effort, Chen stressed. CIIS's Xia Yishan
added that Xinjiang's multi-ethnic mix makes the Central
Government's effort especially important; while ethnic

Uighurs are the plurality in Xinjiang, the region is home to
smaller groups of Tajiks, Kazakhs and others who feel a
stronger cultural connection to Central Asia than to China's
ethnic Han majority. Beijing perceives a need to generate
goodwill among local people in Central Asia in order to
counter news coming out of Xinjiang of convictions of ethnic
minorities for separatist activities. Xia added that
maintaining security in Xinjiang is critical for China's
national security, as made clear by the threats to the
Beijing Olympics that originated from China's west.

Reaching Out to Central Asia
--------------


4. (C) CICIR's Chen said that Beijing seeks to fulfill its
objective of security in Xinjiang and ensuring that Beijing
can obtain the cooperation of governments in Central Asia
through the projection of soft power and through efforts to
portray China as a supportive partner. China has found that
governments in the region are receptive to its overtures
given their ongoing struggles to demonstrate legitimacy
through meeting the basic economic needs of their
populations. China has been increasing its support on a
range of fronts, including educational exchange,
scholarships, security cooperation, training programs for
government officials, trade and infrastructure investment.
Chen noted 1500 Kazakhs study in China each year through
government incentive programs, up from virtually none just a
few years ago. CIIS's Xia asserted that Central Asian
leaders, particularly in Astana and Tashkent, are keenly
aware of growing PRC interest in the region and seek to
leverage their role in regional security to maximize benefits
from China and create a counter-balance against Russia's
traditional hegemony in the region.

A Comprehensive Effort in Beijing
--------------


5. (C) China's MFA has the lead on the effort to improve
relations with Central Asia, but the MFA appeals to top-level
leadership to ensure other line ministries are supporting the
goals that fall within their portfolios. CIIS's Xia said
that numerous Chinese ministries and state-run enterprises
are involved in the effort and have been directed by senior
leadership on the region's importance for China's internal
security. Beijing has placed particular emphasis on law
enforcement cooperation, stationing liaison police officers
in the region and sending law enforcement delegations.
Bilateral and multilateral interactions are invariably aimed
at "increasing mutual trust," which Chen suggested means
developing an understanding among Central Asian governments

BEIJING 00004479 002 OF 003


of the domestic and trans-national security considerations
that drive Beijing's policy in the region.

The Need to Avoid Friction with Russia
--------------


6. (C) Chinese policy in the region is carefully considered
in order to avoid friction with Russia while expanding the
space for Central Asian cooperation on security measures,
according to Chen. In the effort to project Chinese
influence in the region, China sees Russia as an important
but unreliable partner, as seen in Moscow's willingness to
risk instability through its actions in Georgia. Beijing
fears that similar interventions in Central Asia would
undermine China's efforts to control its population in
Xinjiang by setting back prospects for a docile and
cooperative Central Asian region. CIIS's Xia warned that,
because of rising Chinese influence in Central Asia, the
potential for Russia-China tension remains. He stressed
China's belief that after withdrawing from the region in the
1990s, Russia is seeking to reassert hegemony, giving China's
efforts to avoid conflict increased urgency. He acknowledged
that China must take care to avoid friction with Russia even
in its outreach to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan despite their
geographic distance from Russia.

Russia Relations Important for Global Issues
--------------


7. (C) The two regional powers' differing interests in the
regional energy market underscore the potential for conflict,
Xia said, especially given China's need to maintain energy
supplies as a pillar of its rapid economic growth. Xia
asserted that China seeks a voice with Russia to help it
avoid conflict with the United States over NATO expansion,
Georgia and other issues, given that renewed U.S.-Russia
conflict would not be in China's interest.

SCO as Tool for Deconflicting Russia, PRC Influence
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Xia pointed to the need to avoid friction with Russia
as a primary purpose for the development of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO). He said that China continues
to be the main driver for the SCO, with Beijing continually
seeking to "pull Russia deeper" into the organization. The
SCO having moved on from its origins as a forum for resolving
border conflicts, Xia said that Beijing believes that by
reaching consensus in the SCO on potentially controversial
issues between the two countries, China can avoid being seen
by Russia as an adversary even as it expands its influence in
the region and deepens cooperation among Central Asian
states. CICIR's Chen stressed that the strong emphasis in
SCO rhetoric on enhancing mutual trust derives from this need
to both reduce the potential for conflict with Russia and
increase the cooperation Beijing receives on security issues.

Economic Cooperation Driven by Security Needs
--------------


9. (C) According to CICIR's Chen, China also sees economic
cooperation with Central Asia as a top priority, given the
region's importance for the production and particularly
transportation of energy resources. He stressed that
economic problems in Central Asia have a direct impact on
China, and Beijing perceives a strong interest in ensuring
economic growth in the region through deeper economic links
with China. While economic agreements are often seen as the
"low-hanging fruit" of multilateral arrangements, Chen argued
that these agreements are in fact seen by Beijing as critical
pieces in securing China's western border and maintaining
domestic security. This is in contrast to the perception
among many observers that China's economic engagement with
Central Asia is merely about opening more markets for Chinese
manufacturing goods.

Looking to China during Global Economic Crisis
-------------- -


10. (C) With Central Asian governments fearing the effects of
the current global economic turmoil, China has sought to
convince governments in the region of its leading role in the
international community, said Chen. China has emphasized the
need for "new approaches," which has generated hope in
Central Asia that China's efforts to insulate its domestic
economy against the prospect of global recession will assist
smaller neighboring countries in riding out the turmoil as
well.

Public and Private Efforts
--------------

BEIJING 00004479 003 OF 003




11. (C) Xia agreed that the expansion of Chinese trade and
investment in Central Asia is a primary means of engendering
mutual trust and earning Central Asian assistance in fighting
trans-national separatist groups. He said that Beijing seeks
to promote a mix of public and private investment in the
region, often through state-led investments in
infrastructure. Such projects are popular among local
government officials and facilitate the flow of natural
resources to China. Such economic measures, Xia said, also
engender development in Xinjiang, reinforcing the security
gains of stronger relations with Central Asia.
Piccuta