CHINA DISMISSES TIBET EXILE CONFERENCE, CONTACTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 004354

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2033
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL KIFR CH IN
SUBJECT: CHINA DISMISSES TIBET EXILE CONFERENCE, CONTACTS
REMAIN PESSIMISTIC ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR PROGRESS

REF: A. BEIJING 4231

B. BEIJING 4196

C. BEIJING 4168

BEIJING 00004354 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Acting Political Section Chief
Ben Moeling. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Following last week's Tibet exiles conference
in Dharamsala, Han Chinese contacts provided PolOffs
with a pessimistic perspective on the environment for
China's talks with the Dalai Lama's representatives,
observing that Tibet is "not a priority" for Beijing
and noting that the PRC has successfully "villainized"
the Dalai Lama in China. Other interlocutors pointed
to strategic obstacles to any softening in Beijing's
attitude, citing the PRC leadership's concerns about
Xinjiang separatism and Sino-Indian relations as
factors contributing to China's hard line. Liberal
contacts linked improvement in the Chinese
Government's treatment of Tibet to progress on broader
political reform in China. PRC official media
dismissed the conference as a tactic for the Dalai
Lama to solidify his power over Tibetan exiles and
"threaten" China with independence, but a living
Buddha in Qinghai told PolOff that pro-independence
groups are, in fact, gaining influence among Tibetan
exiles, asserting that the Tibetan Youth Congress will
be able to "insert some of its policies" into the
Dalai Lama's "Middle Way" approach. End Summary.

CHINA'S MEDIA: "DALAI LAMA SOLIDIFIES POWER"
--------------


2. (U) Coverage in China of the recently concluded
Tibetan exile meeting in Dharamsala, India was largely
restricted to PRC newspapers that specialize in
international affairs. The Global Times, a paper
known for its nationalist views and run by the Party
flagship newspaper People's Daily, ran a long article
on the meeting November 24. The piece argued that the
Dalai Lama used the conference primarily to solidify
his own power over Tibetans in exile and to threaten
to seek independence should talks continue to go
nowhere. The International Herald Leader, operated by
the official Xinhua News Agency, printed a similar
article November 25 that quoted PRC Tibet experts and
officials as saying the Dalai Lama promotes the
"Middle Way" mainly because the international
community would not support violence or any campaign
for overt Tibetan independence. The Dalai Lama's
offer to retire or semi-retire from politics, the
Herald Leader reported, was a tactic to counter
pressure from the "pro-independence" Tibetan Youth
Congress and other more radical Tibetans who remain
frustrated by the lack of progress.

LIBERAL CHINESE PERSPECTIVE
--------------


3. (C) Though representing a minority view in China,
liberal Embassy contacts were quite critical of the
PRC Government's Tibet policy in recent conversations
with PolOff, with some linking the Tibet situation to
progress on human rights and political reform more
broadly within China. For example, Qin Hui (protect),
a liberal scholar at Tsinghua University and one of
China's most prominent intellectuals, told PolOff
November 24 that although the Tibetan exiles voted to
stick with the Middle Way approach, China will
continue to face "mounting difficulties" in Tibet,
particularly if Beijing does not alter its current
approach. The cases of the former Soviet Union and
Yugoslavia demonstrate that economic growth and
integration alone will not dampen Tibetan independence
sentiment. Rather, progress depends on China's
ability to improve human rights conditions, both in
Tibet and throughout all of China. In fact, the PRC
needs to "grant autonomy to every individual," Qin
averred. Once Tibetans have more personal freedom,
especially to worship without government interference,
then the situation there can stabilize, Qin asserted,
adding that respect for human rights and minority
rights is one reason the United States does not have
problems with separatism. Moreover, contrary to
charges made by Tibetan exile groups, Qin argued, the
Communist Party simply cannot use demographics to
"pacify" the region. Han Chinese may be willing to go

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to high altitude areas for seasonal work, but they do
not want to settle there permanently, Qin said.


4. (C) Mao Yushi (protect),Chairman of the Unirule
Institute for Economics, one of China's few
independent think tanks, separately echoed Qin Hui's
comments in a November 25 meeting with PolOff. The
main reason for the March 14 riots in Tibetan areas,
Mao said, is the Communist Party's "old thinking,"
particularly its "hostility" toward religion and its
"unequal treatment" of Tibetans and other minorities.
Mao commented that he is personally not upset by the
idea that minority groups in China would rather be
independent. Throughout its history, Chinese provinces
have sought independence from the central government.
For example, as a child in Republican-era Guangxi
Province, Mao said, he remembers using currency
printed by the local warlord. "I say let Tibet and
Taiwan be independent, it has no impact on my day-to-
day life," Mao said, though he acknowledged his views
are "hardly mainstream" among Han Chinese. Mao Yushi
said that because the Dalai Lama is "so weak" compared
to China, the PRC leadership does not approach
negotiations with sincerity, merely dismissing
everything the Tibetans say as "seeking independence."
China's rulers view separatism in Muslim Xinjiang as a
"much more immediate problem," which leads to
unwillingness to compromise with the Dalai Lama for
fear that this will create pressure to grant similar
compromises for Xinjiang's Uighurs, Mao Yushi argued.


5. (C) Note: Qin and Mao's comments track with those
of other liberal Embassy contacts in linking the lack
of progress on human rights and political reform in
China with Beijing's hard-line policies on Tibet.
Speaking before the Tibetan exiles conference,
dissident writer Wang Lixiong (protect) told PolOff
November 7 that fundamental changes in China's Tibet
policy will come only when China democratizes.
Separately, Professor Zhao Fasheng (protect) a "neo-
Confucian" scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences, on November 6 said the prospects for a more
liberal PRC Tibet policy "died" at the same time the
Tiananmen protests were crushed in 1989. Many of the
leaders purged over Tiananmen, as well as Premier Hu
Yaobang before that in 1987, were not only in favor of
political reform but were also accused of being "too
soft" on Tibet, Zhao asserted. Therefore, Zhao
argued, a more "humane" Chinese approach on Tibet will
not be feasible until political liberalization in
China becomes a possibility.

WAITING FOR THE DALAI LAMA TO DIE
--------------


6. (C) Well-connected freelance journalist Chen Jieren
(protect),while largely stating views more commonly
held among the majority of Han Chinese, nevertheless
echoed Mao Yushi's comments about the importance of
Xinjiang in shaping Chinese leaders' approach to
Tibet. Chen told PolOff November 24 that China was
"not very concerned" with the Tibetan exiles
conference but that the leadership is much more
concerned with the potential for "serious unrest" in
Xinjiang. From a security and sovereignty
perspective, China really "has no choice" but to
continue to take a tough line and maintain the "status
quo" on Tibet, Chen argued. Given the option, most
ethnic Tibetans in China would almost certainly choose
independence, but China could never accept that
outcome due to geostrategic considerations. "Tibetan
independence would equal war with India," Chen
declared, something Beijing simply will not allow.
Though the door to dialogue with the Dalai Lama
remains "open," Tibet is not a high priority issue for
China. Chen agreed that China is waiting for the
Dalai Lama to die in the hopes the Tibetan movement
will weaken and splinter afterward. Moreover, Beijing
would "be delighted" to see "more radical" Tibetan
exiles opt for independence, as that would justify
even harsher countermeasures by Beijing, Chen
asserted.


7. (C) Wang Wen (protect),Opinion Editor at the
Global Times newspaper, echoed Chen's pessimism about
the future of talks with the Dalai Lama's
representatives. China has never engaged the Dalai
Lama seriously, Wang averred, noting that the talks
are mostly "for show." If China really wanted to seek
a settlement on Tibet, the Dalai Lama has already

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"said many of the right things," Wang stated. The
problem is, China simply "does not believe" what the
Dalai Lama says on issues such as independence and
autonomy. There have been ample chances to reconcile,
but China simply is not interested. China thus will
wait for the Dalai Lama to die and then select his
successor. Wang noted that the Dalai Lama has said
publicly that he believes the Chinese Government is
acting in bad faith in the talks, but that he still
has faith in the "Chinese people." That faith is
"misplaced," Wang declared, as the Dalai Lama has been
successfully "villianized" in the eyes of most
Chinese.

"UNGRATEFUL" TIBETANS
--------------


8. (C) Sharing sentiments held among many majority
Han, China Reform Forum Deputy Secretary General Cao
Huiyin (protect) argued to PolOff November 24 that the
Tibet issue demonstrates how many Chinese minorities
remain "ungrateful" for the vast investment China has
made in their well-being. Not only has China received
"nothing" in return for its investment, but many
minorities, including the Tibetans, have only become
"more aggressive." In sum, China is "not worried"
about the Tibetan exiles because they are outside the
country and can be "as independent as they want to
be." Cao's assistant, Dai Fengning (protect),while
agreeing with Cao, nevertheless grimly stated that
China will be faced with the Tibet issue for "decades"
to come. "We have not solved the Tibet problem over
the past 50 years, and we may have to deal with it for
another 50," Dai concluded.

"TIBETANS WANT MORE INTERNATIONAL INVOLVEMENT"
-------------- -


9. (C) Providing a perspective from the Tibetan
community within China, Luosang Cicheng Pengcuo
(strictly protect),a living Buddha at Lucang
Monastery in Guinan, Qinghai Province, told PolOff on
November 24 that, despite the outcome of the
Dharamsala conference, "pro-independence" groups are
gaining influence among Tibetan exiles. Although the
exiles voted to maintain the "Middle Way," Pengcuo
said the more radical Tibetan Youth Congress will be
able to "insert some of its policies" into the Middle
Way approach. Pengcuo, who said Tibetans in China
have had difficulty obtaining detailed information
about the conference, commented that ethnic Tibetans
here want the international community, and especially
the United States, to become "more directly involved"
in the talks between China and the Dalai Lama's
representatives. Progress will only be made if
foreign countries are more willing to intervene,
Pengcuo stated.
RANDT