Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BEIJING4325
2008-11-25 09:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beijing
Cable title:  

EAP DAS ARVIZU DISCUSSES PRC TIES WITH NORTHEAST

Tags:  PREL PGOV MNUC KN CH KS JP 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8930
OO RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHBJ #4325/01 3300931
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 250931Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1059
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 004325 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2033
TAGS: PREL PGOV MNUC KN CH KS JP
SUBJECT: EAP DAS ARVIZU DISCUSSES PRC TIES WITH NORTHEAST
ASIA NEIGHBORS

Classified By: Acting Political Section Chief Ben Moeling. Reasons 1.4
(b/d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 004325

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2033
TAGS: PREL PGOV MNUC KN CH KS JP
SUBJECT: EAP DAS ARVIZU DISCUSSES PRC TIES WITH NORTHEAST
ASIA NEIGHBORS

Classified By: Acting Political Section Chief Ben Moeling. Reasons 1.4
(b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) ROK Deputy Chief of Mission Lee Hyun-ju told EAP DAS
Alex Arvizu that China and the DPRK have a "traditional and
neighborly" relationship, but observed that contact between
Chinese and North Korean mid- and low-level military officers
and officials is rare. The ROK Government has made repeated
requests of the Chinese for information about Kim Jong Il's
health but has been rebuffed by Beijing each time. Chinese
and ROK contacts described the Sino-ROK relationship as
"good" but noted that minor tensions caused by disagreements
over history or shared cultural assets continue to crop up.
A December 2007 survey naming South Korea as the country most
disliked by Chinese people came as a surprise to the ROK
Government. MFA Asia Department Japan Division Deputy
Director Lu Guijin said that the Sino-Japanese relationship
is developing in a positive direction but stressed that the
two countries still need to enhance mutual trust. MFA Asia
Department DPRK, ROK and Mongolia Division Director Chen Hai
believes that a U.S.-China-Japan trilateral dialogue could
play a "vital role" in the region and warrants further
exploration, but warned that South Korea might be concerned
about being excluded from this new grouping. Chen
recommended that the Six-Party Talks focus on
denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula before tackling
other issues such as North Korea's missile development and
proliferation. End Summary.


2. (C) EAP Deputy Assistant Secretary Alex Arvizu met with
MFA Asia Department Japan Division Deputy Director Lu Guijun,
MFA Asia Department DPRK, ROK and Mongolia Division Director
Chen Hai and ROK Embassy Deputy Chief of Mission Lee Hyun-ju
to discuss China's relationships with the DPRK, ROK and Japan
and recent developments in regional multilateral arrangements
in a series of separate meetings on November 19.

Sino-DPRK Ties
--------------


3. (C) ROK Deputy Chief of Mission Lee Hyun-ju described the

China-DPRK relationship as "traditional and neighborly." Lee
noted that while Chinese and North Korean high-ranking
officials maintain close ties, contact between Chinese and
North Korean mid- and low-level military officers and
officials is rare. Lee said that the ROK Government has made
repeated requests to the Chinese for information about Kim
Jong Il's health but has been rebuffed by Beijing each time.
Lee jokingly speculated that China could not, as opposed to
would not, share information about Kim because the PRC does
not have access to reliable information, especially after
numerous Chinese intelligence agents were expelled from North
Korea "approximately five years ago." Chinese officials,
moreover, are under strict orders not to discuss North Korean
affairs unless they have prepared and cleared guidance on the
issue, Lee speculated.


4. (C) Separately, Lee cast doubt on media reports claiming
to have access to sources with first-hand knowledge of Kim's
health. According to Lee's assessment, it is unlikely that
North Koreans, especially members of Kim's inner circle,
would dare to pass sensitive details about the Dear Leader to
foreigners. Lee believes, however, that there is information
about Kim that provides indirect clues to his situation. He
noted that Kim's customized rail car has been inactive for
four months, that motorcades have been observed going to and
from hospitals and that Kim's family members have made a
number of unusual trips. These and other clues lead Lee to
conclude that Kim "must have health problems," is probably
physically incapacitated and unable to appear in public, but
is still mentally alert.

Sino-ROK Ties: Some Tension, Positive Overall
--------------


5. (C) MFA Asia Department DPRK, ROK and Mongolia Division
Director Chen Hai told DAS Arvizu that the overall trend of
the PRC-ROK relationship is "good." He noted that there were
several high-level exchanges in 2008, including ROK President
Lee Myung Bak's visits to China in May and August and PRC
President Hu Jintao's visit to South Korea in August.
Nevertheless, said Chen, there is some "psychological
friction" between the South Korean and Chinese peoples.
Recent tensions, especially between PRC and ROK netizens as
expressed in on-line chat rooms, "cannot be ignored," said

BEIJING 00004325 002 OF 003


Chen. He speculated that South Koreans might resent the fact
that China is an emerging power while South Korea is "on a
downward trend." Minor tensions caused by disagreements over
history or culture will continue to crop up, but will not
harm the overall bilateral relationship, Chen predicted. The
PRC and ROK Governments are working to "guide" their citizens
and media onto the "right track" and to change perceptions of
South Koreans in China and vice versa, assured Chen.


6. (C) According to ROK DCM Lee, the fundamentals of the
PRC-ROK relationship are "normal" and "look good." The
volume of bilateral trade continues to rise and South Korea
continues to have a trade surplus with China, its top trading
partner. There are occasional disputes between Chinese and
Korean bloggers over matters of "cultural ownership," he
noted, but Lee characterized these clashes as "normal
phenomena" between neighboring countries with shared
"cultural assets" and links going back more than 3,000 years.
Lee recounted how a disagreement over UNESCO's 2005
designation of the Gangneung Danoje Festival as uniquely part
of South Korea's cultural heritage quickly turned into a
conflict between ROK and Chinese bloggers in which Chinese
netizens claimed that South Korea had "stolen" something
important to China's heritage. These bloggers argued that
the Gangneung Danoje Festival did not qualify for the UNESCO
designation because it was derived from China's traditional
Dragonboat Festival, said Lee. South Korean youth quickly
responded online and the result was a nasty war of words
between young people in both countries. Lee contended that
Chinese netizens misunderstood the requirements for UNESCO
listing.

Anti-Korean Sentiment on the Internet
--------------


7. (C) Lee also told DAS Arvizu that the ROK Government had
been surprised by a December 2007 survey in the International
Herald Leader (a newspaper published by China's official
Xinhua News Agency) naming South Korea as the country most
disliked by Chinese citizens. According to the poll, 40
percent of respondents expressed dislike for South Korea
while 30 percent expressed similar sentiments about Japan.
DCM Lee explained that during the past year the ROK Embassy
made several complaints to the PRC Information Office of the
State Council about anti-Korean Internet postings and the
above-mentioned poll. According to Lee, the Information
Office provided "serious cooperation" and blocked or removed
some particularly offensive anti-Korean Internet postings.
Lee and his staff also believe that China is trying to
restrict the ROK's cultural influence by limiting the number
of South Korean television dramas broadcast on Chinese
television. Two years ago, there were more than 20 South
Korean television series and three Japanese series broadcast
on Chinese television, he noted. Last year, China permitted
more than ten Japanese dramas to be broadcast in China
compared to fewer than ten from South Korea. Lee questioned
whether these changes reflected actual changes in Chinese
viewers' taste or were part of a decision by the PRC
Government to advance China's "diplomatic agenda with Japan."


8. (C) Chinese nationalism was at an all-time high in 2008,
said Lee. While the reception of ROK athletes during the
Beijing Olympics was "not bad," he observed that Chinese
spectators did not clap or welcome the ROK team as they
marched onto the field during the Opening Ceremony. Chinese
spectators also rooted for the Japanese team during a
baseball game against South Korea, an incident which worried
many foreign affairs analysts in the ROK media.

Sino-Japan Ties
--------------


9. (C) MFA Asia Department Japan Division Deputy Director Lu
said that the Sino-Japanese relationship is "on a positive
development trend" but stressed that the two countries still
need to enhance mutual trust, strengthen bilateral
cooperation on regional and global issues and improve public
perceptions of Japan in China and vice versa. China will
continue to encourage Japan to play an important role on the
international stage, stated Lu.

China, Japan and the United States
--------------


10. (C) Lu attributed the overall positive trend and
direction of the situation in Asia to good U.S.-China ties
and an improved China-Japan relationship. He maintained that
the "normalization and gradual development" of relationships

BEIJING 00004325 003 OF 003


among the United States, China and Japan would help resolve
conflicts in the Asia Pacific region. Lu noted that the
United States and China have diverse channels of
communication (track 1, 1.5 and 2 dialogues; bilateral and
multilateral fora and the Six-Party Talks) which help to
promote understanding, increase transparency and enhance
cooperation. Nonetheless, some Chinese scholars, said Lu,
have expressed concerns about three fundamental issues: 1)
whether a strengthened U.S.-Japan alliance is designed to
target China; 2) whether there are plans for the United
States, Japan and Australia to construct a security alliance
to dominate the region; and 3) whether the common interests
of the United States and China are strong enough to overcome
areas of disagreement.


11. (C) Chen suggested that a U.S.-China-Japan trilateral
mechanism could be another forum to exchange views. He
suggested exploring this proposal further but warned that
South Korea might be concerned about being excluded from this
new grouping. Based on the solid foundation laid by
President Bush, China is willing to continue its positive
cooperation with the new U.S. administration on Northeast
Asia policies, Chen emphasized.

Six-Party Talks
--------------


12. (C) The Six-Party Talks is a good mechanism, but might be
on its "last gasp," said ROK DCM Lee. He recommended that
the new U.S. administration consider establishing the
equivalent of Korean Peninsula Energy Development
Organization (KEDO). Without "new energy," there is a danger
that the Six-Party Talks process might wane, he added.


13. (C) Chen recommended that the Six-Party Talks be
preserved to manage the DPRK nuclear crisis effectively. The
Six-Party Talks should remain focused on denuclearization,
but Chen suggested enhancing communication among key
stakeholders to discuss other issues such as North Korea's
missile development and proliferation. The Six-Party Talks
could turn its attention to North Korea's economic
development and the normalization of relations with other
countries after denuclearization is achieved, stated Chen.


14. (U) DAS Arvizu has cleared this message.
RANDT