Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BEIJING335
2008-01-30 13:26:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beijing
Cable title:  

CENTER MOBILIZES TO DEAL WITH SNOWSTORM; MAJOR

Tags:  PGOV PROP ECON ELTN SOCI CH 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6538
OO RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHBJ #0335/01 0301326
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 301326Z JAN 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 403
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 000335 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2028
TAGS: PGOV PROP ECON ELTN SOCI CH
SUBJECT: CENTER MOBILIZES TO DEAL WITH SNOWSTORM; MAJOR
INSTABILITY UNLIKELY, CONTACTS SAY

REF: A. GUANGZHOU 51

B. OSC CPP20080130710001

C. GUANGZHOU 48

D. BEIJING 303

BEIJING 00000335 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Political Internal Unit Chief Dan Kritenbrink.
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 000335

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2028
TAGS: PGOV PROP ECON ELTN SOCI CH
SUBJECT: CENTER MOBILIZES TO DEAL WITH SNOWSTORM; MAJOR
INSTABILITY UNLIKELY, CONTACTS SAY

REF: A. GUANGZHOU 51

B. OSC CPP20080130710001

C. GUANGZHOU 48

D. BEIJING 303

BEIJING 00000335 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Political Internal Unit Chief Dan Kritenbrink.
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) At last grasping the severity of the
disruptions caused by snowstorms in south and central
China that have affected millions of travelers headed
home for the Chinese New Year holiday (reftels),
China's central leadership on January 29 and 30
launched an all-out effort to mobilize Party and
Government resources to deal with the problem.
Meeting in special session on January 29, the
Politburo decreed that authorities must "realize the
severity of the situation" and make disaster relief
their "top priority." More than 500,000 troops have
reportedly been dispatched to the disaster areas.
Premier Wen Jiabao traveled to Hunan and Guangdong
Provinces to oversee relief efforts and give
encouragement to those affected. Though the storms
pose an enormous challenge to authorities, who
reportedly fear a possible backlash if their response
is perceived as ineffective, Embassy contacts say
major instability is unlikely as the center brings its
"awesome resources" to bear. Nevertheless, at a
minimum, the storms are predicted to exacerbate
inflation, already hovering at 11-year highs. End
Summary.

Center Mobilizes: Politburo Meets, Wen Greets
--------------


2. (U) Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao
chaired a special meeting of the Politburo January 29
as China's central leadership mobilized to deal with
snowstorms that continue to cause paralysis of rail,
road and air transport networks during the peak
Chinese New Year travel season. The Politburo,
according to an official Xinhua News Agency release,
urged local authorities to make disaster relief their
"top priority," "fully realize the severity" of the

situation and "take responsibility for the people."
January 28-29, Premier Wen Jiabao traveled by air and
rail to Hunan Province, where he apologized to
stranded passengers at Changsha's train station for
the delays and conveyed his condolences to families of
power workers killed while trying to remove ice from
local electrical lines. During the trip journalists
also photographed Wen boarding passenger busses
stranded on the Jingzhu Highway, China's major north-
south roadway. Premier Wen moved on to Guangdong
January 30 (ref A).

The Current Situation
--------------


3. (U) As of January 28, the disaster had impacted
77.9 million people in 14 provinces and caused 24
fatalities (10 in buildings that collapsed due to
snow, 10 in falls, 2 by drowning and 2 due to falling
trees),according to the Xinhua News Agency. An
additional 25 persons died January 29 in a weather-
related bus crash in Zunyi County, Guizhou Province.
According to the South China Morning Post, the
government has mobilized 500,000 troops (a combination
of both People's Liberation Army (PLA) and People's
Armed Police (PAP)) to assist those cut off by the
storms. Indicating that the disaster may continue,
China's National Meteorological Center was forecasting
that low temperatures will continue in areas south of
the Yangtze River for ten more days.


4. (U) China's Ministry of Public Security (MPS) used
a previously scheduled press conference January 30 to
discuss the current transport situation. MPS
Spokesman Wu Heping said the Hunan portion of the
Jingzhu Highway was still closed, and 5,000 cars were
backed up for 25 kilometers at the Hunan-Hubei border.
While Hunan remained the hardest hit, with roads there
covered with up to seven centimeters of ice, Wu said
roadways in Anhui, Jiangxi, Guizhou and Guangxi were
slowly returning to normal. Wu also reported that no
significant violent crime had taken place in the
disaster area.


BEIJING 00000335 002.2 OF 003



5. (C) Embassy contacts meanwhile told tales of
friends and relatives in the south who were caught
completely unprepared for the storm. Beijing resident
Wang Dequan (protect) told Poloff January 30 that he
is worried for his older brother in Guiyang, Guizhou
Province. Wang said his brother's family remains
stuck in their home with no heat due to the ice storms
that have knocked out electricity. Wang said his
greatest fear is that his brother's family could
possibly poison themselves by using a makeshift coal
burner inside their apartment. Separately, an Embassy
contact in Hubei described being stranded in Wuhan
January 26-28 because highways were completely
impassable.

Major Instability Unlikely, Contacts Say
--------------


6. (C) Though our contacts believe the storm presents
a major political and public relations challenge for
the central authorities, none predicted the disaster
would result in wide-scale disorder. Ding Xueliang
(protect),a Senior Associate at the Carnegie
Endowment's Beijing office, told PolOff January 29 the
crisis presents a special challenge for the government
because of the desire to keep unrest in check as China
prepares for the 2008 Olympics. Provincial cadres are
under tremendous pressure to avoid any demonstrations
caused by the transport delays, and thus local
officials are being proactive in providing stranded
passengers with food, water and other services. Ding
did not characterize the transport difficulties as a
potential source of serious unrest.


7. (C) Similarly, Chen Qin (strictly protect)
journalism professor and former editor of the National
Development and Reform Commission-affiliated Zhongguo
Gaige, told PolOff January 30 that the crisis, though
impacting huge swaths of China, is "not a direct
threat" to national stability. While the severe
weather has highlighted infrastructure problems, the
snowstorms are the worst that have hit the country in
50 years and thus could not have been anticipated.
Nevertheless, the leadership at all levels is
concerned with a possible public backlash if they are
perceived as failing to respond effectively. Chen
commented the storms come at a "particularly sensitive
time" when China's leadership is already concerned
about rising inflation. Adding to the uncertainty,
Chen said, this disaster comes right after a major
reshuffling of provincial leaders following the 17th
Communist Party Congress last October, meaning many
new and untested provincial leaders are on the front
lines, and all are fearful of being blamed for failing
to prepare.


8. (C) Xu Cunyao (protect),longtime Embassy contact
and former interpreter for Mao and Zhou Enlai, told
Poloff January 30 that, politically, the challenge
posed by the snowstorm in southern China could
potentially be "as serious as the 2003 SARS crisis."
No one can control the weather, of course, but Xu
believed that, like in 2003, the center has been "very
slow" to respond. The storms first hit around January
14, but only on January 29 did the central leadership
"finally" respond fully by holding the special
Politburo meeting. As a result, there could be a
"price to pay" for this delayed response. At a
minimum, there will be serious economic consequences.
But, politically, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao's "close-
to-the-people" image may take a hit. At some point,
Xu predicted, there is also likely to be pressure to
hold someone "accountable," meaning that "heads may
roll" in the aftermath of the crisis, most likely at
the local level. Xu nevertheless cautioned against
exaggerating the potential threat to stability. The
Party and Government, he stressed, have the means to
maintain social stability nationwide, emphasizing
that, once mobilized, the center has "awesome
resources" it can bring to bear.

Center to the Rescue
--------------


9. (U) China's propaganda apparatus is working at full
speed to emphasize the government's response and
concern for migrant workers stuck in train stations
and on highways. The special Politburo meeting and
Wen Jiabao's visit to Hunan were the lead stories on all
major Chinese newspapers today. A front page
editorial in the People's Daily said, "All related

BEIJING 00000335 003.2 OF 003


localities and departments are actively taking
countermeasures and devoting arduous efforts to
disaster relief work (ref B)." For the week of
January 28, China National Radio (CNR) devoted its
entire morning news programming to the
weather/transport crisis. While CNR's coverage has
been heavy with official interviews and favorable
stories on the government response, the station has
also invited listeners stranded across China to send
in text messages describing their situation. Several
listeners described being stuck on roadways for up to
five days. China Central Television this week also
aired extensive special coverage of the disaster.


10. (U) Not all media coverage of the government
response has been favorable. The Xinjing Bao (Beijing
News) ran an editorial January 29 criticizing the lack
of government transparency as the catastrophe
unfolded. Confused information over road closings
contributed to the disaster, the paper charged,
complaining that some officials refused to share
information with journalists.

Harsh Reviews from Netizens
--------------


11. (SBU) Bloggers and chat room participants appeared
unimpressed with the government's propaganda and
blasted the leadership's slow reaction time. One
Sina.com poster described the disaster as "30 percent
weather, 70 man-made." "The snowstorm has being going
on for several days," another Sina poster wrote,
"where was our military force, where was our Party and
where was our government?" Many chat room
participants also faulted the inaccuracy of government
weather forecasts. A small minority gave the
government some praise for its response.

Beijing Train Station Calm
--------------


12. (SBU) In contrast to Guangzhou (refs A,C),Beijing's
main train station was calm and not particularly
crowded January 30. Though PolOff saw a very visible
police presence with seven vans in the square outside
the station, this was not noticeably greater than
during previous Chinese New Year holidays. Many
Beijing residents appeared to have given up plans to
head south for the holidays. One constuction company
employee in Beijing Station wih whom PolOff spoke
said he had been trying, n vain, to sell hs ticket
to Shanghai.

Brader Economic Implications
--------------


13. (U) Whatever the possible political implications
of the storm and the center's response, the weather is
almost certain to exacerbate inflation, already
hovering at 11-year highs and a top concern of the
government as the March opening of the National
People's Congress approaches, according to the
comments of Merrill Lynch's Beijing-based economist
Ting Lu in a January 30 research note. Lu's comments
were echoed by two other economists who spoke with
EconOffs. Vegetable prices in particular have doubled
in some areas in recent days because produce has been
destroyed or stuck on farms. Lu observed that the
chaos caused by weather points to significant
infrastructure underinvestment and predicted stepped-
up investment in power transmission and transportation
that could help narrow the gap between coastal and
interior regions.
RANDT