BEIJING-BASED G-5 CHIEFS OF MISSION ON TIBET, THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 001396

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR WILDER, HAENLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2028
TAGS: PREL PGOV KOLY SOCI SENV CH FR GM JA UK
SUBJECT: BEIJING-BASED G-5 CHIEFS OF MISSION ON TIBET, THE
DALAI LAMA, AND HIGH LEVEL VISITORS

Classified By: Ambassador Clark T. Randt, Jr. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) At the April 11 bi-weekly Beijing-based G-5 Chiefs of
Mission gathering, French DCM Nicolas Chapuis noted that
there is much confusion in Paris regarding Sarkozy's
"conditions" or "elements" involved in his ultimate decision
to attend or not attend the Beijing Olympics. President Hu
Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao appear to have different
positions on the Dalai Lama as expressed in their phone calls
to other world leaders, UK Ambassador Ehrman noted. The
Chinese Government's options for dealing with Tibet are being
limited by the surge in Chinese nationalism, which is itself
being fueled by the Government's own propaganda. Moderates
in both China and Dharamsala appear to be under attack,
according to Chapuis. (Note: The Ambassador has tasked the
Political section to explore the implications of the Tibet
issue for China's leadership.) End Summary.

Participants
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2. (C) German Ambassador Dr. Michael Schaefer hosted Japanese
Ambassador Yuji MIYAMOTO, UK Ambassador William Ehrman,
French DCM Nicholas Chapuis and the Ambassador April 11 for
the bi-weekly G-5 gathering of Beijing-based Chiefs of
Mission.

Confusion in France: President's Olympic Attendance
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3. (C) French DCM Nicolas Chapuis reported that French
President Nicolas Sarkozy, in a private conversation with
Chinese President Hu Jintao, said that he would consider
"three elements" in deciding whether to attend the Beijing
Olympics: the cessation of violence in Tibet, unfettered
access to Tibet and the resumption of dialogue with the
Tibetan representatives. Following this conversation, French
Secretary of the Interior Michele Alliot-Marie, in an

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interview with Le Monde, said that Sarkozy had outlined
"three conditions," rather than "elements" for his attendance
at the Olympics. This enraged Sarkozy, who ordered her to
give another interview to retract her statement. During her
subsequent interview, she claimed that Le Monde
"misrepresented" her comments, which Le Monde then denied.
Sarkozy then asked Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner to give
an interview to repudiate the existence of "conditions."
Kouchner, according to Chapuis, not only failed to repudiate
Alliot-Marie's statement, but also inadvertently added a
fourth condition: that the Chinese meet the Dalai Lama in
Brussels. Sarkozy, infuriated, stated that he will
"determine the conditions of our participation, depending on
the opening of dialogue with the Dalai Lama" in a television
interview April 8. He further noted that Chinese dialogue
with the Dalai Lama can be public or secret, but must be
"productive and concrete."

Phone Calls On Tibet: Hu, Wen and Yang
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4. (C) Premier Wen in his phone conversation with British
Prime Minister Gordon Brown appears to have taken a stance
different from that taken by President Hu during his March 26
phone call with President Bush, UK Ambassador Ehrman
reported. Specifically, Wen said that he appreciates the
Dalai Lama's non-violent approach as well as his statements
that he does not oppose the Olympics. President Hu, however,
according to the Chinese press, told President Bush that the
Dalai Lama Clique had engaged in "serious violent criminal
activity" during which "no government would sit idly by."
Ambassador Ehrman noted that Hu has not addressed the Chinese
public on the issue of Tibet since the outbreak of violence
on March 14, and his only public statements on the matter
come from Xinhua's reporting on the phone call with President
Bush. Ambassador Ehrman also noted that in Foreign Minister
Yang Jiechi's phone call with UK Foreign Minister Miliband,
Yang stated that the Dalai Lama has never renounced a 1993
constitution drawn up by the government in exile in
Dharamsala whose goal is an independent Tibet, and that the
Dalai Lama has called for the removal of all PLA troops from
Tibet. Moreover, according to FM Yang, when the Dalai Lama

refers to "Tibet," he is referring to all traditionally
ethnically Tibetan areas, including the Tibetan Autonomous
Region as well as large parts of Gansu, Qinghai, Sichuan and
Yunnan Provinces.

A Split between Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao?
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5. (C) Japanese Ambassador Miyamoto also noted the difference
between the public statements of Hu and Wen, as well as
apparent friction between Hu and former President Jiang
Zemin. Wen had been invited to attend a Japanese Youth
Celebration at the Great Hall of the People, but had
declined, Ambassador Miyamoto reported. Unexpectedly, Hu
Jintao announced that he would attend, and then arrived one
hour before he was expected. He spent 16 minutes with the
Japanese children while CCTV filmed him, and the resulting
video clip was edited on the spot and then played repeatedly
on the nightly news programs. Ambassador Miyamoto feels that
this unusual attention reflects Hu's split with Jiang Zemin,
who disliked the Japanese. (Note: Hu's attendance may also
have been related to his upcoming visit to Japan in May.)
Lately, pro-Jiang Zemin websites have been appearing, as have
many websites connected with the New Left (Xin Zuo Pai).

Movements Towards Dialogue with the Dalai Lama
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6. (C) Ambassador Miyamoto alleged that the Dalai Lama wrote
a letter to President Hu March 19, stating that he is willing
to come to Beijing to hold talks. The United Front Work
Department (Tong Zhan Bu) received the letter, French DCM
Chapuis added, and reportedly responded that his willingness
to hold dialogue is a "positive gesture." Premier Wen Jiabao
was quoted March 30 in Vientiane saying that "the channels
are open" for dialogue with the Dalai Lama, Chapuis
continued. On March 24, French President Sarkozy offered to
mediate any dialogue between the two sides, Chapuis said.
Ambassador Miyamoto noted that Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda
made the same offer the previous week. Hu has been preparing
a written response to Fukuda, but "factional infighting" has
prevented him from finishing the letter, according to
Ambassador Miyamoto. This puts Hu in a dangerous position,
as his inability to achieve consensus on the letter is
weakening his position within the Party leadership,
Ambassador Miyamoto assessed.

Odds and Ends on Tibet
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7. (C) Hu has ordered an investigation into why Chinese
security forces did not immediately crack down on protesters
in Tibet on March 14, according to Chapuis. The issue has
become the focus of party factional struggles, particularly
because the Tibet issue also influences other issues, such as
Xinjiang and Falun Gong, Chapuis continued. The United Front
Work Department has been "in crisis mode" since the events in
Tibet and has been reportedly holding talks with "moderates"
in the Dalai Lama's entourage. However, the moderates are
being marginalized and are "under attack" in Dharamsala,
Chapuis alleged. Chinese moderates are facing similar
problems: Southern Weekly writer Chang Ping was pursued
online as a "traitor to the Han race" after publishing an
article advocating a moderate stance on Tibet. The
Organization Department of the Party has called for loyalty
from all cadres in Tibetan areas and has issued a circular
stipulating that loyalty will be specifically included in
cadre evaluations. (Note: The Ambassador has tasked the
Political section to explore the implications of the Tibet
issue fQ China's leadership.)

Nationalism is Limiting Central Government Options
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8. (C) Japanese Ambassador Miyamoto said that a Chinese
friend with PLA contacts had expressed worry about rising Han
nationalism. He further noted that the response to the
problems in Tibet has been "old-school propaganda," which has
misled the Chinese public and increased their agitation.
This agitation, coupled with the increase in nationalism, is
limiting the options of the Chinese Government. Of course,
he added, public calls for dialogue with the Dalai Lama from
foreign leaders only make such dialogue more difficult to

initiate by Chinese leaders. French DCM Chapuis added that
there is increased pressure for a tough response in Tibet
from the Chinese public, while the international community is
calling for restraint. Foreigners have also had to bear the
brunt of a hostile Chinese public, according to Chapuis.
Following the Paris leg of the Olympic Torch Run, the French
Embassy has been receiving 50 threatening or angry phone
calls a day; the French Consulate in Chengdu has been
receiving upwards of 100 similar phone calls a day from
Chinese citizens.

UK High Level Visitors
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9. (C) UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling will
come to China on April 14 for the UK Economic Dialogue with
Vice Premier Wang Qishan. He will be accompanied by Lord
Mark Malloch-Brown, and the trip will cover both Beijing and
Chongqing. The Dalai Lama will meet with UK Prime Minister
Gordon Brown this month. Brown called Premier Wen in advance
to inform him of the meeting, which "made a big difference to
the Chinese." They expressed appreciation that Brown will
not meet the Dalai Lama on government property, and that he
has described the meeting merely as a "personal, religious"
meeting. In early June, UK Secretary of State for Business
John Hutton, Chief of Defense Staff Air Chief Marshal Sir
Jock Stirrup and Secretary of State for Health Alan Johnson
will visit China.

Japanese Visitors
--------------


10. (C) Deputy Foreign Minister Yabunaka will visit China
April 14 to lay the groundwork for President Hu Jintao's
visit to Japan. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi will
visit Japan April 17-20, in advance of Hu's visit. Liberal
Democratic Party Secretary General Bunmei Ibuki and New
Komeito Party Secretary Kazuo Kitagawa will visit China in
the near future. Japanese Environmental Minister Ichiro
Kamoshita will be coming to Beijing following the Boao Forum.


German and French Visitors
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11. (C) German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier will
visit China June 13-15, and hopes to meet with Hu, Wen and
Yang. German Minister of Economics and Technology Michael
Glos will visit Beijing and Shanghai in May to commemorate 30
years of Sino-German cooperation in science and technology.
In Chongqing May 9-17, the Germans will continue their
"Sustainable Urbanization" program. The German Government
cancelled their development dialogue, which had previously
been scheduled for May. Former French President Jacques
Chirac cancelled his visit to China for "personal reasons."
Chapuis noted that his reasons truly were health related and
are not connected to Tibet.
RANDT