TIBET: JOURNALISTS CITE GOVERNMENT "RESTRAINT,"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 001045

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2033
TAGS: PGOV SOCI PHUM PREL CH
SUBJECT: TIBET: JOURNALISTS CITE GOVERNMENT "RESTRAINT,"
LINK PRC RESPONSE TO TAIWAN AND DOMESTIC STABILITY CONCERNS

REF: A. BEIJING 1022


B. BEIJING 998

C. BEIJING 982

D. BEIJING 999 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Deputy Political Section Chief Ben Moeling.
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: China's leadership has ordered security
forces to show "restraint" and not discharge their weapons in
responding to Tibet-related unrest, according to two editors
at official Chinese newspapers. One source said that despite
these orders, "isolated shooting incidents" may have occurred
but claimed the number of Tibetan casualties has been "very
few." More than 200 Tibetans have been arrested in Lhasa,
however. The leadership has two primary concerns in
responding to the protests: avoiding any negative impact on
the March 22 Taiwan elections and preserving domestic
stability. Both sources were highly critical of the
Government's tight control of information but said there was
"no way" foreign press and diplomats would be allowed into
Tibetan areas. The unrest is unlikely to spread beyond
Tibetan regions. One source warned of a "backlash" if
countries push for an Olympics boycott, while the other said
the Olympics simply are not the leadership's primary concern,
asserting that the Party's "core interests" are social
stability, Taiwan and continued Communist Party rule. End
Summary.

PRC Shows "Restraint"; Number of Deaths Low, Arrests High
-------------- --------------


2. (C) According to two editors at separate official PRC
newspapers, China's leadership has ordered security forces to
show "restraint" and not discharge their weapons in
responding to Tibet-related unrest. Chang Shaoyang (strictly
protect),senior editor at the Ministry of Justice-affiliated
Legal Daily, told PolOff March 19 that President Hu Jintao,
in ordering restraint, had specifically not authorized
security forces to discharge their weapons. Wang Wen
(strictly protect),editor at the People's Daily-affiliated
Global Times, said on March 20 that Hu Jintao's order had
resulted in "virtually no loss of life" among Tibetan
demonstrators. When pressed by PolOff, who cited multiple
reports indicating that Chinese security forces had in fact
fired their weapons, Wang conceded that in certain "isolated
and chaotic" instances, some security forces "likely" fired
their weapons. But the leadership has specifically ordered
security forces not to do so, Wang claimed, and as a result,
the number of Tibetan casualties has been "extremely low,"
not exceeding more than "one or two people."


3. (C) Although the number of casualties has been low, "more
than 200" Tibetans have been arrested by security forces in
Lhasa, Wang said, indicating this information had come from a
Global Times reporter in Lhasa. That reporter told Wang the
situation there is "largely under control" and "mostly
quiet." Both Wang and Chang claimed to have "heard nothing"
about unrest in Tibetan areas outside of the TAR. (Note:
See para 6 for their complaints about the strict controls on
information about the unrest.)

Concerned with Taiwan, Domestic Instability
--------------


4. (C) The leadership has two primary concerns in responding
to the unrest: avoiding any impact on the March 22 Taiwan
elections and preserving domestic stability, the two editors
said. Wang Wen said concern about reactions in Taiwan is the
primary motivation behind China's restraint. The Chinese
leadership is concerned that if China were to "brutally"
crack down on protesting Tibetans, it could have an effect on
public opinion in Taiwan and thus the March 22 presidential
election. China's leadership believes that, in Taiwan, fear
of China translates into support for the pro-independence
Democratic Progressive Party. A crackdown resulting in
large-scale loss of life, Wang Wen said, could "hand the
election to (the DPP's) Frank Hsieh." China still hopes for
a victory by the KMT's Ma Ying-jeou and wants to avoid doing
anything to jeopardize that.


5. (C) According to the Legal Daily's Chang Shaoyang, the
leadership's primary concern is domestic stability. Even
though it is "highly unlikely" that the unrest will spread
beyond Tibetan or other minority areas, Chang nevertheless
said the leadership remains "insecure" and "has no
confidence" in the stability of its rule, which is why it has
responded so swiftly to these protests. Chang found it
"improbable" that Han Chinese might try to "take advantage"

BEIJING 00001045 002 OF 002


of the crrent uncertainty. Wang Wen also believed unrest
would remain limited to Tibetan areas, thoug he conceded
protests could "theoretically" cop up in certain parts of
Xinjiang. Apart from Uighurs and Tibetans, however, "other
minorities" in China are "largely satisfied," Wang asserted.

Critical of China's Information Control
--------------


6. (C) Both editors were highly critical of the Government's
tight control of information regarding the unrest.
Propaganda Department authorities have directed Chinese
newspapers to use only articles disseminated by the official
press agency Xinhua, Chang said. While "unfortunate," Chang
said the information controls are "typical" of the Party's
response to crises. "Overreacting" and restricting access to
information is one of China's "greatest weaknesses" during a
crisis, Chang said, asserting that China faced the "same
problem" during the recent snowstorms in south and central
China. Wang also criticized the information controls, though
he said his newspaper has been given greater leeway to
report, the only paper in China authorized to do so.
Nevertheless, his paper still must do so within "strict
parameters." Wang was reluctant to describe the parameters.

"No Way" for Foreigners and Diplomats to Access Tibet
-------------- --------------


7. (C) There is "no way" the Chinese Government will allow
foreign press and diplomats to access Tibetan areas in China,
Wang averred. Wang cited a number of reasons for the
leadership's reluctance to do so, beginning with a possible
"loss of face" for Chinese authorities, in part by implying
that China needs foreign "help" to report on the "real"
situation there. The safety of reporters and diplomats also
could "not be guaranteed," Wang said, noting that even though
things in Tibet are quiet now, there is no guarantee they
will stay that way. The leadership also wants to avoid
"internationalizing" the Tibet unrest a la the Tiananmen
protests of 1989, which could happen if the foreign press is
let in, Wang said. Finally, the Party simply "does not
trust" the overseas press, Wang said, citing a recent Reuters
photo from Lhasa that had supposedly been "doctored" as one
example of the "bias" of the Western press.

Impact on Olympics: Divergent Views
--------------


8. (C) Our contacts held divergent views on the possible
impact of the unrest on the Olympics. The Olympics remain
"extremely important" to the Chinese people, Chang Shaoyang
said, noting that the last thing the public and leadership
wants to see is anything that would mar a successful Games.
For that reason, the international community should not
attempt to politicize the Games by threatening a
Tibet-related boycott, Chang warned, which would only result
in a "strong backlash" from the Chinese people. For Wang
Wen, however, the Olympic Games are "not the Party's primary
concern." China's "core interests" are social stability,
Taiwan and preserving Communist Party rule. China does have
a great deal invested in the Games in terms of money, time
and prestige, and perhaps even in the political future of new
Politburo Standing Committee member Xi Jinping, who has been
put in charge of the Games' preparation. Nonetheless, Wang
averred, the Games simply are not a "core interest" for
China, and China is prepared to "sacrifice" the Olympics if
necessary to preserve its vital interests.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Wang Wen and Chang Shaoyang are the fourth Embassy
contacts to report that the central leadership has ordered
security forces to exercise "restraint" in responding to the
unrest in Tibetan unrest (reftels). Although several sources
have discussed the leadership's anxiety over social stability
and the Olympic Games, Wang Wen is the first contact to cite
Taiwan as a primary concern influencing PRC leaders' handling
of the current protests.
RANDT