TIBET: RESTORING ORDER IS PRC'S PRIMARY FOCUS;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 001022

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2033
TAGS: PGOV SOCI PREL PHUM KIRF CH
SUBJECT: TIBET: RESTORING ORDER IS PRC'S PRIMARY FOCUS;
LEADERSHIP FEARS SPREADING UNREST, SCHOLAR SAYS

REF: A. BEIJING 998


B. BEIJING 982

C. BEIJING 999 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson.
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: China's leadership is focused on restoring
order and preventing the Tibet-related unrest of the last
week from spreading nationwide, a well-connected scholar told
PolOff March 18. Although international reaction to
Beijing's response is a consideration for China's rulers,
particularly in the run-up to the Olympics, ensuring social
stability is "by far more important." Some Chinese observers
are drawing parallels between current social instability and
the situation in 1989, this contact stated, asserting that
today's tensions are "far more serious." "Everyone" in China
wants to take advantage of the Olympic Games to highlight
their grievances, he argued. For that reason, the Government
intends to move "swiftly" to quell the unrest and ensure it
does not spread further. In doing so, China will "not be
excessive" and will adopt more "moderate" policies than it
did when last faced with Tibetan unrest on this scale, in

1989. End Summary.

Focus on Restoring Order
--------------


2. (C) The ongoing unrest in Tibetan areas of China remains a
hot topic of conversation among the Embassy's Chinese
contacts, as scholars and journalists discuss, in private,
how to respond to the protests, their possible impact on the
August Olympic Games and whether the unrest has broader
implications for social stability nationwide (refs A and B).
According to Cao Huayin (strictly protect),Deputy Secretary
General at the China Reform Forum (CRF),a think tank
affiliated with the Communist Party's Central Party School,
China's leadership is concerned first and foremost with
restoring order in Tibetan areas so as to prevent unrest
there from spreading. Although China cares about its
international image and worries about a possible negative
impact on the Olympics, that is not the focus, Cao told
PolOff on March 18, arguing that ensuring social stability is
"far more important." For Beijing, quelling the unrest has
become a "law enforcement issue," Cao asserted, stating that
those responsible for the looting and killing of "innocents"
in Lhasa late last week must be "brought to justice."

Fear of Instability
--------------


3. (C) The leadership fears that, if it does not quickly get
the current unrest under control, disorder could spread to
other areas, Cao asserted. If the unrest spreads, it likely
will not be limited just to ethnic minority areas but could
involve Han Chinese, especially the poor and disadvantaged in
China's rural areas. "Everyone" wants to take advantage of
the Olympics to air their grievances, Cao claimed. Some
observers are even drawing parallels between the current
unrest and the demonstrations in 1989 that culminated in the
Tiananmen Square protests. (Note: Cao's CRF colleague, Dai
Fengning (strictly protect),said he "fully agreed" with
Cao's analysis, noting that he too had "heard" others making
this link.) In 1989, unrest also "started" in Tibet, Cao
stated. Moreover, social tensions are "far more serious"
today than they were back then. Twenty years ago, people
were angered primarily by corruption. Today, there are "many
more reasons" for people to be unhappy, including corruption,
but also the rich-poor gap and anger over various other
"injustices." There is an economic and social component to
the current unrest in Tibet, Cao observed, but tensions there
are obviously exacerbated by ethnic and religious factors.
Nonetheless, it is "not difficult to imagine" unrest
occurring in majority Han Chinese areas, Cao said.

Response will be "Swift," but "Moderate"
--------------


4. (C) To nip this potential unrest in the bud, the center
will move "swiftly" to restore order, Cao predicted.
Nevertheless, President Hu Jintao "learned a lesson" from
1989 (when he was Party Secretary in Tibet and responsible
for the crackdown on dissent there) and will be "moderate"
this time around. "We have principles," Cao said, claiming
that the Central leadership, to his knowledge, has not
authorized the use of deadly force and arguing that Chinese
security forces have so far shown "great restraint," which is
why so many of them were injured by proestors in last week's
Lhasa riots. Although ome in the West say President Hu

BEIJING 00001022 002 OF 002


Jintao now has a "second opportunity" to crack down on Tibet,
Cao said this time around, President Hu is advocating a more
moderate response, having learned that an overly hard-line
approach will not solve the problem in the long-term and will
also invite severe international criticism.

Pondering Long-Term Solutions
--------------


5. (C) Later in the conversation, Cao conceded that the
Tibetan situation is more complex than a mere "law
enforcement problem," confessing that his views on the
current situation are based partly on the spin presented by
Chinese official media. When PolOff pointed out the
long-term historical reasons for Tibetan resentment, Cao said
he agreed that the Party should address these long-term
problems, but only after the current protests end. Cao hoped
the Dalai Lama would call for restraint on the part of
Tibetan demonstrators, though he wondered aloud whether the
Dalai Lama can actually control the "Tibetan youth" that
appear to have led many of the protests.

Assessing the U.S. Position
--------------


6. (C) The U.S. response to the unrest has been "so far, so
good," Cao said, who appeared familiar with U.S. calls for
restraint while also urging the Chinese Government to show
respect for Tibetan culture and engage in dialogue with the
Dalai Lama. Cao thought it "unlikely" that significant
anti-American action would result from the unrest, though he
warned that, if Washington were to lead, or support, calls
for efforts to "penalize" China, to possibly include an
Olympic boycott, then public "anger" with the United States
would likely "grow quickly."

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Cao's reference to 1989 and worries about the
possibility of unrest spreading to ethnic Han areas are
diametrically opposed to those of another well-connected
contact, who told us March 17 that the current unrest would
not spread beyond ethnic minority areas (ref A).
RANDT