TRIBAL LEADER FAULTS GOI FOLLOW-UP TO COK, PLANS RUN FOR

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BASRAH 000050

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/27/2018
TAGS: PGOV ECON IR IZ
SUBJECT: TRIBAL LEADER FAULTS GOI FOLLOW-UP TO COK, PLANS RUN FOR
PROVINCIAL COUNCIL

REF: A) BASRAH 040; (B) BASRAH 028; (C) BASRAH 025

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CLASSIFIED BY: Howell Howard, Director, Regional Embassy Office
Basrah, Dept. of State.
REASON: 1.4 (a),(d)




1. (S/REL MCFI) SUMMARY: During a meeting held May 21 at the
Basrah REO with Sheikh Mansur Tamimi, leader of the Bani Tamim
tribe, Mansur said the lack of progress on reconstruction was
eroding the popular support for the GOI and ISF engendered by
the Charge of the Knights (COK) operation. Though the security
situation remained stable, he questioned whether the ISF had the
resources to sustain their gains and stated that the militias
may now be regrouping and rearming in preparation for a new
offensive. He expressed frustration with the lack of GOI
support for his Tribal Support Battalion authorized during the
Charge of the Knights (COK) operation.


2. (S/REL MCFI) SUMMARY CONTINUED: Regarding the upcoming
provincial elections, Sheikh Mansur was critical of OMS and the
incumbents, including Fadhila, but expressed particular disdain
for the ISCI/Badr/Hizbollah/Sayyed al-Shuhada/Tharallah bloc.
Sheikh Mansur has registered his own political bloc, the Iraqi
Unity Assembly, which will comprise ten different tribes under a
nationalist, multi-confessional banner. While optimistic about
the chances of independent candidates, Sheikh Mansur warned that
the Iranians would make every effort to co-opt, influence or
intimidate independents prior to the upcoming elections. END
SUMMARY.

FRUSTRATION WITH THE GOI
--------------

3. (C/REL MCFI) In a meeting held on May 21 at the Basrah
Regional Embassy Office (REO),Sheikh Mansur of the Bani Tamim
tribal confederation revealed his extreme disappointment with
the GOI, stating that the promises of financial and material
support offered by the GOI (Ref B) in the initial days of COK
campaign for his tribesman have to date amounted to nothing.
Revealing that the GOI has neither paid his men nor issued any
resources (salaries, weapons, ammunition, living quarters or
uniforms),Sheikh Mansur came across as a man betrayed, and
openly doubted whether he could keep his battalion together much
longer. So far, no other tribal battalion has been stood up
except for one in Qurnah.


4. (C/REL MCFI) Claiming that IRGC-QF sleeper cells still remain
in Basrah, Mansur appeared particularly concerned that those
militia elements that had fled Basrah after COK may be
regrouping and rearming, and he stated that soon they could
launch a new offensive. While admitting that the ISF has been
doing a good job maintaining security, he questioned whether
they had the resources to maintain their presence, sharing that
he has seen soldiers sleeping in the streets because the ISF
does not have adequate shelter and claiming that ISF commanders
have asked him on numerous occasions to provide supplies for
their men. (Note: New Basrah Operations Center commander
General Mohammed disputed this in a May 24 meeting, Septel. End
Note.)


5. (C/REL MCFI) The lack of reconstruction since COK has been
particularly frustrating to the sheikh, who openly questioned
the competence of acting Justice Minister Safa al-Safi, tasked
by the PM to oversee the distribution of $100 million in
emergency reconstruction funds (Ref A). Claiming that he has
personally submitted a list of recommendations to Safi, Mansur
bemoaned that nothing has been done to date, and in his
estimation Basrawis were growing extremely frustrated with the
slow pace of reconstruction; this frustration was eroding the
positive feelings they had developed for the GOI following COK.
If something were not done soon, Mansur said that people would
be less willing to cooperate with the GOI. (Note: al-Safi has
yet to produce a list of projects that he and his Committee of
Deputy Ministers will execute in Basrah. End Note.)

UPCOMING PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS
--------------

6. (S/REL MCFI) Sheikh Mansur posited that if the GOI Election
Commission (IHEC) plays an impartial role and if the security
situation remains stable, then the elections should proceed
smoothly. With free and fair elections, all of the incumbents
affiliated with the main political blocs will be voted out of
office, he predicted. Sharing his views about the growing
popularity of independents in Basrah, Sheikh Mansur said that
this stemmed from the contempt that many Basrawis had for the
incumbent parties, particularly Fadhila, OMS, and the House of
Five, all of whom had done nothing to improve Basrah.
Acknowledging that he has registered his own political party,
the Iraqi Unity Assembly, he revealed that it was comprised of
ten different tribes and will run under a nationalist,

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multi-confessional banner.


7. (S/REL MCFI) The Iranians view Basrah as the most significant
province in the upcoming elections and will spare no effort to
obtain a favorable result, Mansur asserted. Iran fears the
potential power of the independents, and he claimed that they
are already working through ISCI/Badr to bring independent
candidates into their fold. Other Iranian techniques will
include offering funding to independent candidates or
intimidation. He also claimed that Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and
the United Arab Emirates are already attempting to counter
Iranian efforts in Basrah.


8. (S/REL MCFI) COMMENT: Mansur's is not the only tale of
tribal battalion abandonment; the Qurnah area tribal battalion
also has received no support (Septel). Likewise, his warnings
about ISCI/Badr/Iranian election maneuvering have been echoed by
other contacts (Septels). Sheik Mansur has been among the
staunchest GOI supporters and his tribe took on militants by
themselves during COK (Ref C); it is not a good sign if GOI
support is now wavering. Mansur has been selected for a visit
of Iraqi sheikhs for an International Visitors' program in early
June that is planned to include a meeting with the President.
End Comment.
HOWARD