REO BASRAH SITREP FOR APRIL 15, 2008

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BASRAH 000032

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINS ECIN IZ
SUBJECT: REO BASRAH SITREP FOR APRIL 15, 2008

REF: A) BASRAH 29 B) BAGHDAD 1151

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CLASSIFIED BY: Howell Howard, Director, Executive, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (U) Basrah REO situation report for April 15.


2. (S//REL MCFI) Summary: The situation in Basrah remains
tense, but is gradually improving as Iraqi Security Forces (ISF)
confront militias and assert governmental control. The ISF
continue to execute the second phase of "Operation Charge of the
Knights" (COKII) begun on April 12 by isolating Jaysh al-Mahdi
(JAM) strongholds in Qibla, Hyyaniyah, Timinyah, and the
Five-Mile districts. Encouraging signs: The ISF faced little
resistance while clearing Qibla; JAM members are fleeing to Iran
or north to Qurnah; barbers, alcohol and music vendors are
emerging in areas the ISF controls; tips reporting JAM
activities are flooding in as Basrawis become increasingly
confident in the ISF and optimistic about the future; and the
ISF are gradually building confidence. The IA face on the rescue
of Richard Butler was a good news story. The next IA
operational target may be Al Qurnah, to which Basrah City JAM
fled and from which they now are fleeing to Iran. The Regional
Embassy Office continues to bask in reduced IDF. Humanitarian
needs are being met. End Summary.

Charge of Knights II
--------------

3. (C//REL MCFI) The Battle of Basrah is not over. Stiff
fighting is still expected in Hyyaniyah and Five-Mile. It is
still too early to tell whether JAM members are fleeing to other
areas to reinforce them or to temporarily hide and reemerge
later. We also assess the confidence of the ISF to be highly
dependent on the presence of U.S. and British Military
Transition Teams (MiTTs) and U.S. air cover. We also hear that
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's tribal initiative here is highly
disorganized and tribal leaders are becoming frustrated with the
GOI's failure to make due on its promises of support.

Al Qurnah Next?
--------------

4. (S//REL MCFI) Looking ahead, several sources tell us that
ISF plans
are underway to clear Al Qurnah, which has seen a four-fold
increase in JAM's presence since April 12, followed by a
blocking operation. Comment: If true, the ISF would delay the
highly anticipated fight in Hyyaniyah. This move, however, may
help ensure that weapons and reinforcements are blocked from
entering Basrah through the smuggling routes in Maysan. It
would also give the ISF more time to pressure Hyyaniyah and
prepare for operations there. End Comment.


5. (S//REL MCFI) Qurnah is about 70km NW of Basrah City center,
close to the Iranian border and next to oil fields. Qurnah
(Septel) town has been a historic JAM stronghold surrounded by
the strong tribal identities of the Al-Batat and Garamshah
tribes. An oil field contact reports that almost all JAM
fighters have cached their heavy weapons and fled to Iran,
intending to return after the IA makes its expected sweep
through the town. Comparing this with other sources, perhaps
many JAM fighters fled to Qurnah from Basrah City, and now are
fleeing east the 25km to Iran. Quanah is astride one of the
MSRs between Basrah through Al Amarah to Baghdad, and there have
been numerous EFPs against Coalition movements. Contacts
suggest that the Fadhila-infested Oil Protection Service may be
cooperating with JAM in the emplacement of EFPs. JAM's flight
and caches is an indication that what might appear to result in
an IA clean victory in Qurnah may turn out to be hollow if the
town is not garrisoned.

ISF Leadership Changes
--------------

6. (C//REL MCFI) We previously reported that LTG Mohan Hafith
Fahad
al-Fariji, the Basrah Operations Commander, would be replaced by
MG Abdel Aziz al-Ubaydi, but British and U.S. sources are now
reporting that 14th IA Division Commander, MG Muhammed Jawad,
will replace LTG Mohan while MG Abdel Aziz will take over 14th
Division. We also hear that LTG Mohan may step down within 3-4
days. Police Chief MG Jalil Khalaf Shuwayl is also going to be
transferred out within the month according to multiple sources.
IP chief for southern Basrah, BG Youssef Raheem Jasim Youssef
told us April 15 that the MinDef and MinInterior are
reorganizing Basrah's police force under a single directorate
with one sector covering the city and another responsible for
the outlying sectors. He also said that the GOI is beginning to
dismiss the current IP commanders and promoting up the Badr
militiamen previously integrated into the ISF after the former
regime's fall.


7. (S//REL MCFI) Comment: The dismissal of LTG Mohan is no
surprise. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki widely criticized him
for making accommodations with JAM (though Mohan would say he
had little choice given the poor state of the ISF). However,
the loss of MG Jalil is a mistake and there are serious concerns

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about who his replacement might be. The IP was almost
irreparably infiltrated by the militias, but despite that, Jalil
has tried to take on the militias and enforce the law resulting
in numerous attempts on his life, defended women's rights during
a period of female murders, forced Provincial Council members to
return IP vehicles and established ties to the Christian and
Sunni communities. If the rumors are true that the GOI is
increasing the influence of Badr-affiliated officers over the
IP, it indicates that ISCI/Badr are trying to benefit
politically from PM Maliki's decision to confront JAM in Basrah.
The selection of Jalil's replacement, therefore, will be a
critical decision. End Comment.

IA Rescues Richard Butler
--------------

8. (S//REL MCFI) Kidnapped CBS reporter and British citizen
Richard Butler was freed April 14 during an Iraqi Army (IA)
operation. UK, U.S. and Iraqi authorities had been trying to
secure Butler's release since he was kidnapped on February 10.
Local and national television media covered General Mohan's
triumphant meeting with Butler at the Basrah Palace. Although
negotiations for a release were in the works, giving the IA the
rescue mission in what was until then an intense UK negotiation
and investigation effort was a confidence-building success story
with an Iraqi face.

Ports of Entry
--------------

9. (C REL MNF-I) Contacts at the Port of Umm Qasr (PUQ) report
that the Iraqi Navy (IN) has taken over perimeter security for
the facility from the Iraqi Army (IA). Contrary to earlier
reporting, the IN elements are not re-patched IA soldiers but in
fact IN sailors. Roughly 60 sailors are working at the south
port and twice that number at the north port. Contacts advised
that the sailors are generally well motivated but badly lacking
in training and equipment to search vehicles and individuals
entering the PUQ grounds. The sailors' lack of experience with
their new mission has slowed the entry of vehicles and personnel
to the port facility, creating longer lines at the entrances,
but port operations are nonetheless proceeding as normal.
General human traffic at the PUQ remains at roughly half its
pre-"Charge of the Knights" level. Truckers continue to report
that they are entering the PUQ without having to pay bribes.
Coalition-managed security contractors will be working with the
sailors to improve their effectiveness and efficiency.
Developing uniform PUQ identification passes for vehicles and
individuals will be a key priority, as will clearing an
estimated 9,000 empty cargo containers littering the facility.


10. (S REL MNF-I) Security at land points of entry has improved.
With
Coalition support the ISF have installed the Personal
Identification Secure Comparison and Evaluation System (PISCES)
at Shalamshah on the Iranian border; a trained Iraq National
Intelligence Service officer is operating the system in
cooperation with the Coalition. Shalamshah remains generally
closed to traffic, with an exception made for food and
humanitarian goods. Overall traffic as Shalamshah has declined,
but contacts report that Iranian lethal aid continues to cross
with ID 30,000 (USD 25) bribes paid to Department of Border
Enforcement guards.

Security
--------------

11. (C) The security environment in Basrah, while still quite
volatile, has seen positive changes in recent weeks. There are
continuing reports of merchants returning to public sales of
items such as alcohol once forbidden by JAM groups. Basrah Air
Station (BAS),the site of Regional Embassy Office Basrah, has
enjoyed a period of relative calm marked by a significant
reduction in IDF attacks. RSO Basrah attributes the IDF
reduction to the following factors:
- US Air assets have engaged launch sites with lethal forces,
killing several rocket teams and deterring many more.
- Coalition reporting indicates ISF and supporting MiTTs have
occupied many of the favored points of origin previously used by
militia rocket teams.
- Hundreds of JAM and JAM Special Group personnel have fled to
Iran; JAM SG was largely responsible for the attacks against BAS.
- JAM and JAM SG appear to be directing much of their attention
and IDF attacks against the immediate threat of ISF operations
in Basrah City. For example, the Basrah Operations Center (BOC)
in the Sekek area of Basrah was recently attacked using IDF.


12. (S//REL MCFI) Basrah is showing indications of moving in
the right direction but there is much more to be accomplished.
The firing of hundreds of police officers was a very positive
step in removing JAM or other undesirable elements from IP.
That act alone significantly improved future prospects of using
IP in support of diplomatic operations in and around Basrah
City. Furthermore, ISF have begun to capture and hold major

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routes through the city. However, much of Basrah remains in
dispute while some areas remain firmly under control or
influence of militia groups. Hundreds of IED emplacements and
weapons caches continue to be reported by military and police
units operating throughout the city.

Humanitarian Situation
--------------

13. (U) MND-SE J-9 representative, who was in Al Qibla
following the initial entry of ISF, reports people were in no
rush for food and water when supply trucks arrived.
Washington-based advocacy group
"Refugees International" reported that Muqtada al-Sadr is
providing life-support services in Basrah, characterizing OMS as
the largest unofficial "humanitarian" organization.
HOWARD