ELECTION COMMISSION REFERS HIGH-PROFILE FRAUD CASE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 000608

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: ELECTION COMMISSION REFERS HIGH-PROFILE FRAUD CASE
TO SUPREME COURT

REF: A. BANGKOK 598 (ELECTION FRAUD INVESTIGATIONS)

B. 07 BANGKOK 5041 (ELECTION LAWS)

Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The ECT will petition the Supreme Court to
red-card House Speaker Yongyuth for election fraud. The ECT
3-2 decision today may indicate that the evidence against
Yongyuth is not very strong -- or it may be a sign that some
of the commissioners are reluctant to oppose the PPP. A
well-placed embassy contact believes that the courts will
not/not dissolve the ruling People's Power Party (PPP) as a
result of this case. The Supreme Court will be under intense
scrutiny from both sides, which should help it to maintain
its impartiality. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) The Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) decided on
February 26 to refer the vote fraud case against House
Speaker Yongyuth Tiyapairat to the Supreme Court. The ECT, by
a 3-2 vote, endorsed the findings of the investigative
subcommittee, and will petition the Supreme Court's Election
Fraud Department to void Yongyuth's election to the
Parliament. If the Supreme Court accepts the case, Yongyuth
will be suspended as House Speaker until the case is decided.
This would likely take several weeks. If the Supreme Court
red-cards Yongyuth, he will lose his seat and face a
five-year ban from running for office again. As Yongyuth was
a candidate on the party list, if he is disqualified, we
believe that his seat will be taken by the next candidate on
the PPP party list, thus leaving PPP still with 233 seats in
the Parliament.


3. (C) As reported previously (ref A),since Yongyuth was on
the executive committee of the PPP when the alleged fraud
occurred, the ECT will have to determine whether to refer the
case to the Constitutional Court for possible dissolution of
the party. Ambassador briefly discussed the case today with
a prominent member of the former ruling Thai Rak Thai (TRT),
former Foreign Minister Pongphol Adirekson. Pongphol told the
Ambassador that he anticipated the Supreme Court would decide
on the red card in about two weeks. He added that he found
it "unimaginable" that the Constitutional Court would
subsequently dissolve the PPP; he also said he did not
believe that this was how the drafters intended the law be
enforced.

BAD DAY FOR THE FAMILY
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4. (SBU) The ECT also recommended a yellow card be issued to
Yongyuth's sister, who won a seat in the family's Chiang Rai
province stronghold as a People's Power Party constituency
candidate. This case should also be referred to the Supreme
Court for adjudication, as we understand the law. If a
yellow card is issued, there will be a new vote for the seat,
but the sister will be able to run in the by-election, and is
likely to win again.

COMMENT
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5. (C) The ECT's split vote may signal that the evidence in
the case is not very strong -- or it may be a sign that some
of the commissioners are reluctant to take on the PPP. In
any case, the hot potato has been thrown to the Supreme
Court. PM Samak has generally praised the ECT for its
conduct of the elections, but has recently railed against the
"invisible hand" allegedly behind this fraud investigation.
(This is a likely reference to interference by Privy Council
President General Prem, Samak's bete noire.) With the case
being reviewed by the Supreme Court, and carefully monitored
by the ruling party and the press, the evidence should
undergo rigorous examination. Even an "invisible hand" from
the anti-Thaksin forces is unlikely to be able to suborn an
unreasonable verdict.
JOHN